Today (March 23), the contraction of A-Shares rose, led by the gem index. On the disk, in terms of industries, real estate, wind power equipment, traditional Chinese medicine, communication equipment, wine making, aerospace, photovoltaic, battery, automobile service and other industries led the increase; Pharmaceutical commerce, transportation equipment, decoration building materials, shipping ports and other industries led the decline. In terms of subject shares, CRO, leasing and selling, hydrogen energy, pumped storage, 5G, industrial gas and Baijiu were leading. Electronic ID card, data security, underground pipe network, nursery service, Eastern and Western computing, digital currency and so on.
alcohol stocks rose in shock Jinhui Liquor Co.Ltd(603919) once up limit Kweichow Moutai Co.Ltd(600519) and others pulled up
Alcohol stocks rose on the 23rd, and Jinhui Liquor Co.Ltd(603919) rose nearly 9% as of press time, hitting the daily limit at one time Shanghai Bairun Investment Holding Group Co.Ltd(002568) , Xinjiang Yilite Industry Co.Ltd(600197) , Shede Spirits Co.Ltd(600702) , Kweichow Moutai Co.Ltd(600519) , Jiugui Liquor Co.Ltd(000799) , Anhui Gujing Distillery Company Limited(000596) , Wuliangye Yibin Co.Ltd(000858) , Jiangsu Yanghe Brewery Joint-Stock Co.Ltd(002304) , etc. all rose.
For the Baijiu sector, China Securities has pointed out that the recent downturn in the international situation, the macroeconomic forecast is pessimistic, the spread of the epidemic and other factors, Baijiu sector valuation fell, the market shock downward, the leading target valuation is generally lower than the central level, the value of the long line space reproduced. In terms of fundamentals, the consumer demand under the disturbance of the epidemic is slightly flat. In the off-season, liquor enterprises mainly control goods and prices and digest inventory. The dynamic sales are stable, the wholesale prices of famous liquor are relatively flat month on month, the channel confidence remains stable and the fundamentals remain healthy.
The agency said that the Kweichow Moutai Co.Ltd(600519) market-oriented reform has been gradually promoted, the product line has been richer, the channel reform aims to “meet the demand for Maotai liquor to the greatest extent” and enhance mutual trust with the capital market. The current valuation is digested to 34 times of PE in the corresponding year, and certainty is the first choice Wuliangye Yibin Co.Ltd(000858) it is suggested to pay attention to the introduction and implementation of targeted market policies. In the long run, the 1000 yuan price band is still the largest brand, benefiting from stable expansion and unchanged growth trend Luzhou Laojiao Co.Ltd(000568) , Shanxi Xinghuacun Fen Wine Factory Co.Ltd(600809) continuous recommendation.
Zhongtai Securities Co.Ltd(600918) pointed out that the economy continued to recover and famous wines entered the value range. According to the data, the performance of famous liquor in the first quarter of 22 was generally in line with expectations, with high-end stability, high elasticity of sub high-end liquor enterprises, and generally good dynamic sales.
1) in terms of high-end liquor, with a good start in the first quarter, we continue to be optimistic about high-end liquor. In the second quarter, the revenue and net profit attributable to the parent company continued to increase month on month. Focus on high-end liquor leading enterprises with strong performance predictability, such as Kweichow Moutai Co.Ltd(600519) , Wuliangye Yibin Co.Ltd(000858) , Luzhou Laojiao Co.Ltd(000568) and so on.
2) in terms of secondary high-end liquor, the second quarter will enter the performance off-season, and the price will become the main competitive point of the industry. Therefore, with strong policy support and the current situation of continuous economic recovery, consumption will further recover, and the prosperity of the sub high-end wine industry is expected to continue to rise. Under the condition that the secondary high-end liquor enterprises generally realize the simultaneous increase of volume and price, they continue to be optimistic about the national and secondary high-end liquor enterprises, such as Shanxi Xinghuacun Fen Wine Factory Co.Ltd(600809) , Sichuan Swellfun Co.Ltd(600779) and other secondary high-end liquor leading enterprises with smooth progress in nationalization and high-end. It is suggested to pay attention to Jiugui Liquor Co.Ltd(000799) , Shede Spirits Co.Ltd(600702) .
3) in terms of regional liquor, thanks to the strong economic consumption and the general improvement of recognition in the region, and the superposition of share harvest dividends, it is optimistic about regional leading brands such as Jiangsu Yanghe Brewery Joint-Stock Co.Ltd(002304) , Jiangsu King’S Luck Brewery Joint-Stock Co.Ltd(603369) , Anhui Gujing Distillery Company Limited(000596) , Anhui Kouzi Distillery Co.Ltd(603589) and so on. It is recommended to pay attention to Anhui Yingjia Distillery Co.Ltd(603198) .
release of medium and long-term plan for the development of hydrogen energy industry related industrial chain or concern
The national development and Reform Commission issued the medium and long term plan for the development of hydrogen energy industry (20212035). By 2025, a relatively perfect institutional and policy environment for the development of hydrogen energy industry will be formed, the industrial innovation ability will be significantly improved, the core technology and manufacturing process will be basically mastered, and a relatively complete supply chain and industrial system will be preliminarily established. Remarkable achievements have been made in the demonstration and application of hydrogen energy, great progress has been made in clean energy hydrogen production and hydrogen energy storage and transportation technology, and the market competitiveness has been greatly improved. A hydrogen energy supply system focusing on the nearby utilization of industrial by-product hydrogen and renewable energy hydrogen production has been preliminarily established. The number of fuel cell vehicles is about 50000, and a number of hydrogenation stations are deployed. Hydrogen production from renewable energy has reached 1 China Vanke Co.Ltd(000002) 00000 tons / year, which has become an important part of new hydrogen energy consumption and achieved carbon dioxide emission reduction of 1-2 million tons / year.
In 2021, with the implementation of the demonstration application policy, hydrogen energy enterprises will be more clear about the subsidy amount and product pricing, and the orders of fuel cell vehicle industry chain will increase significantly Citic Securities Company Limited(600030) pointed out that local governments and state-owned enterprises are also expected to actively promote the implementation of hydrogen energy projects and “carbon reduction” applications under the incentive of medium and long-term industrial planning and “double carbon” goals. It is estimated that the new increment of fuel cell vehicles in 2022 is expected to reach the level of 8000 ~ 10000, among which hydrogen energy heavy trucks have obvious promotion advantages in terms of subsidy amount and application scenarios. According to the statistics of China Automobile Association, the production and sales of fuel cell vehicles increased by more than twice year-on-year in the first two months of this year. It is estimated that the sales volume of passenger cars / heavy trucks / logistics vehicles will reach 1000 / 3500 / 4500 respectively in 2022. In addition, the shipment volume of hydrogen production, electrolytic cell and storage / transportation / processing industrial chain equipment will also accelerate with the large volume of vehicles, and the industrial development is expected to press the fast forward key.
The agency believes that the market of hydrogen energy sector in 2021 is mainly driven by policies, and the introduction of industry development plans may bring a new round of catalyst to hydrogen energy companies, pushing the stock price into a new round of rise. With the increase of layout enterprises and the appearance of policy effects, the expectation of industry industrialization acceleration is more clear. It’s suggested to focus on companies that are actively laying out and have a first mover advantage in each link of the hydrogen energy industry chain: fuel cell stacks, system related related 6883 Beijing Sinohytec Co.Ltd(688339) , Fujian Snowman Co.Ltd(002639) , Moon Environment Technology Co.Ltd(000811) , Zhangjiagang Furui Special Equipment Co.Ltd(300228) , Ningxia Baofeng Energy Group Co.Ltd(600989) , related to the production and application of green hydrogen.
two departments emphasize accelerating the construction of pumped storage industry or entering a period of rapid growth (with shares)
The national development and Reform Commission and the National Energy Administration issued the “14th five year plan” for modern energy system. The plan proposes to accelerate the construction of pumped storage power stations, implement a new round of national medium and long-term development plan for pumped storage, and promote the construction of large-scale pumped storage power stations that have been included in the plan and have mature conditions; By 2025, the installed capacity of pumped storage will reach more than 62 million KW and the installed capacity under construction will reach about 60 million KW.
Anxin Securities pointed out that with the change of energy structure, power supply security has been put on the agenda, and energy storage has become the main means to solve power security. As the most important way of energy storage, pumped storage has been strongly supported by national policies. In the future, pumped storage will enter a stage of rapid growth and encourage social capital to enter. Water conservancy and hydropower engineering enterprises own the construction and operation of pumped storage projects, and most of them have hydropower operation assets. It is possible to layout pumped storage power stations, which is expected to fully benefit the development of pumped storage in the future. Power Construction Corporation Of China Ltd(Powerchina Ltd)(601669) , Guangdong No.2 Hydropower Engineering Company Ltd(002060) and Anhui Construction Engineering Group Corporation Limited(600502) .
two departments actively, safely and orderly develop nuclear power annual average construction investment will exceed 1000 billion yuan (with shares)
The national development and Reform Commission and the National Energy Administration issued the “14th five year plan” for modern energy system. The plan proposes to actively, safely and orderly develop nuclear power. Under the premise of stable and orderly layout of coastal nuclear power projects, we should actively promote the construction of nuclear power projects and maintain the safety of coastal nuclear power projects. Carry out comprehensive utilization demonstration of nuclear energy, actively promote advanced reactor type demonstration projects such as high-temperature gas cooled reactor, fast reactor, modular small reactor and offshore floating reactor, and promote the comprehensive utilization of nuclear energy in the fields of clean heating, industrial heating and seawater desalination. Effectively protect nuclear power plant site resources. By 2025, the installed capacity of nuclear power operation will reach about 70 million KW.
Sealand Securities Co.Ltd(000750) believes that the 2021 government work report proposes to actively and orderly develop nuclear power on the premise of ensuring safety. Liaoning, Jiangsu, Hainan, Guangxi, Guangdong, Fujian, Shandong and other provinces have mentioned specific targets for promoting nuclear power base construction or installed capacity growth in the 14th five year plan and 2035 vision. According to the prediction of China Nuclear Energy Industry Association, the installed capacity of China National Nuclear Power Co.Ltd(601985) in operation will reach 70 million kW in 2025. Based on this calculation, assuming that the construction cycle of nuclear power units is 5 years and the average capacity of a single unit is 1.1 million KW, China needs to approve 7-8 units per year from 2022 to 2025. If the cost of a single unit is 16000 yuan / kW, the average annual construction investment of nuclear power will exceed 100 billion yuan from 2022 to 2025. In 2021, China National Nuclear Power Co.Ltd(601985) annual investment is 53.8 billion yuan, and nuclear power construction will usher in rapid development in the middle and late period of the 14th five year plan. In addition, the world’s first pile of hualong-1 project has driven more than 5300 upstream and downstream enterprises to realize the localization of 411 core equipment, which has a significant pulling effect on the processing technology and process level of dozens of industries such as materials, metallurgy, chemical industry and machinery, and contributes hundreds of billions of yuan to the industrial chain in the whole life cycle.
The Agency proposed that in terms of industry, China National Nuclear Power Co.Ltd(601985) technology is the world leader, the third generation nuclear power has achieved commercial operation, the technology is mature, and the fourth generation high temperature gas cooled reactor has achieved major breakthroughs. In terms of individual stocks, it is recommended to recommend the leader of nuclear power operation China National Nuclear Power Co.Ltd(601985) , and it is recommended to pay attention to the end target of nuclear power operation Cgn Power Co.Ltd(003816) ; Nuclear industry construction leader China Nuclear Engineering & Construction Corporation Limited(601611) ; Equipment manufacturer Harbin Electric Corporation Jiamusi Electric Machine Co.Ltd(000922) , Suzhou Hailu Heavy Industry Co.Ltd(002255) , Jiangsu Shentong Valve Co.Ltd(002438) , Zhejiang Jiuli Hi-Tech Metals Co.Ltd(002318) .
China will improve UHV AC grid structure UHV field construction or acceleration period (attached)
The national development and Reform Commission and the Energy Administration recently issued the “14th five year plan” for modern energy system, proposing to improve the UHV AC grid structure in North China, East China and central China, provide support for UHV DC power transmission, build Sichuan Chongqing UHV main grid and improve the main grid of Southern Power grid; Promote the power grid to actively adapt to the development of large-scale centralized new energy and large-scale distributed energy.
Yingda Securities pointed out that under the background of the construction of new power system with new energy as the main body, as China’s planned scenic bases are mainly distributed in deserts, Gobi and desert areas in Western and Northern China, the consumption and transmission of new energy depend on UHV lines, which will create huge investment demand. During the 14th Five Year Plan period, the State Grid planned to build the “24 AC and 14 DC” UHV project, involving more than 30000 kilometers of lines, 340 million KVA of transformation and current conversion capacity, with a total investment of 380 billion yuan, a significant increase of 35.7% compared with 280 billion yuan of UHV investment in the 13th five year plan. The UHV field will usher in an acceleration period. It is suggested to pay attention to the companies whose UHV investment has a great impact on performance, such as Nari Technology Co.Ltd(600406) , Henan Pinggao Electric Co.Ltd(600312) , China Xd Electric Co.Ltd(601179) , Tbea Co.Ltd(600089) , etc.
coal plays an important role in ensuring the bottom line it is expected that the annual consumption of thermal coal will maintain a positive growth rate (with shares)
The Symposium on clean and efficient utilization of coal was held on the 22nd. It is required to deeply understand the extreme importance of ensuring national energy security under the new situation, adhere to promoting clean and efficient utilization of coal from the actual situation of national conditions, give full play to the bottom-up guarantee role of coal, and ensure the safe supply of national energy and power.
Capital Securities pointed out that from the demand side, the data released by the National Energy Administration on March 15 showed that in February, the power consumption of the whole society continued to grow, reaching 623.5 billion kwh, a year-on-year increase of 16.9%. From January to February, the total electricity consumption of the whole society was 1346.7 billion kwh, with a year-on-year increase of 5.8%. The high growth rate at the power consumption end increased the positive reserve of coal stocks by downstream power plants. On the other hand, after the important meeting, the expectation of steady growth is strong, and the downstream industrial enterprises will resume work and production in an all-round way. It is expected that the coal demand driven by industrial electricity will maintain a relatively high growth, and the annual power coal consumption is expected to maintain a positive growth, Strong support will be formed for the overall coal price, which will push up the international energy price by adding to the overseas situation. The recent rainstorm in Australia has affected the international coal supply, and the short-term high energy price cannot be reversed, resulting in the high price of imported coal. It is optimistic that China Shipbuilding Industry Group Power Co.Ltd(600482) coal will continue to operate at a high price in the future. The recent market correction range is large. It is considered that the industry has strong profit certainty, low valuation and thick safety cushion, It is suggested to increase the allocation proportion of coal industry. Recommended power coal faucet Shaanxi Coal Industry Company Limited(601225) , Gansu Power Coal faucet Gansu Jingyuan Coal Industry And Electricity Power Co.Ltd(000552) .
