Today (March 23), Shanghai and Shenzhen stock markets showed a strong shock pattern. The three major indexes opened slightly higher in the morning. After falling rapidly at the beginning of the session, the stock index opened a narrow range shock. After the afternoon diving, it stabilized and rose in the afternoon. On the whole, the gem index performed better than the Shanghai index, and finally the three major stock indexes closed up slightly.
In this regard, Guosheng securities also believes that the overall valuation of A-Shares has entered a relatively low range. At this stage, the opportunity is greater than the risk, and there is enough space for the upward rebound in the future. In terms of operation, although there is a demand for stepping back on the current index, there is limited downward space. Among them, the stock index will probably not fall below the recent low this year.
At the same time, the agency further analyzed that the speculation on the theme of short-term board connection on the disk has ebbed, and the superposition market is about to enter the disclosure period of the first quarterly report. The index stepping back may switch the style to the trend track sector such as photovoltaic and lithium battery. Therefore, it is necessary to observe the change of the disk style, follow the market change, grasp the rotation rhythm of the sector, control the position and be cautious.
sector:
I. hydrogen energy
Citic Securities Company Limited(600030) pointed out that in 2021, with the implementation of the demonstration application policy, hydrogen energy enterprises will be more clear about the amount of subsidies and product pricing, and the orders of fuel cell vehicle industry chain will increase significantly. Inspired by the medium and long-term industrial planning and the “double carbon” goal, local governments and state-owned enterprises are also expected to actively promote the implementation of hydrogen energy projects and “carbon reduction” applications. We expect that the new increment of fuel cell vehicles in 2022 is expected to reach the level of 8000 ~ 10000, among which hydrogen energy heavy trucks have obvious promotion advantages in terms of subsidy amount and application scenarios. According to the statistics of China Automobile Association, the production and sales of fuel cell vehicles increased by more than twice year-on-year in the first two months of this year. We expect that the sales volume of passenger cars / heavy trucks / logistics vehicles will reach 1000 / 3500 / 4500 respectively in 2022. In addition, the shipment volume of hydrogen production, electrolytic cell and storage / transportation / processing industrial chain equipment will also accelerate with the large volume of vehicles, and the industrial development is expected to press the fast forward key.
It is expected that the promotion of green hydrogen will be more in-depth in 2022. On the one hand, with the increase of new energy power stations, the demand for energy storage may promote the increase of some green hydrogen production projects; On the other hand, the demand for green hydrogen in the industrial field is also expected to increase. We expect that the sales volume of electrolytic cell equipment may exceed 1GW in 2022, with the corresponding market scale of 3 ~ 5 billion yuan. The application of new technologies of hydrogen energy is mainly reflected in the field of industrial carbon reduction. These technologies have made rapid progress in 2021, such as hydrogen energy metallurgy and power generation by mixing natural gas with hydrogen. It is expected that new breakthroughs in the application in 2022 are also expected to give birth to new tracks.
Everbright Securities Company Limited(601788) believes that carbon neutralization promotes energy transformation, and hydrogen energy may become a trillion blue ocean market. As a green energy with clean, low-carbon, high calorific value, diverse sources and flexible storage and transportation, hydrogen energy is known as the “ultimate energy” in the 21st century. The development of hydrogen energy industry is the only way for China to achieve the “double carbon” goal. The state has a positive attitude towards the development of hydrogen energy. Since 202, hydrogen energy related support policies have been issued frequently. The industry is expected to usher in a high boom and growth under the catalysis of policies.
Hydrogen energy is widely used, and fuel cell vehicles are the main increment of hydrogen energy demand in the short and medium term. According to the prediction of China hydrogen energy alliance, under the “carbon neutralization” scenario in 2060, China’s annual demand for hydrogen will increase to about 130 million tons. As a key link in the development and utilization of hydrogen energy, China’s hydrogen stations have entered a stage of rapid development and are expected to reach a market scale of 100 billion by 2050. Large scale and equipment localization can promote the cost reduction of hydrogen stations. At present, the global hydrogen fuel cell vehicle is developing rapidly, and China occupies a dominant position in the global fuel cell bus and commercial vehicle segment market. In the future, with the maturity of fuel cell system technology and the decline of cost, the scale of hydrogen fuel cell heavy truck and passenger vehicle is expected to expand rapidly, which can give play to the advantages of hydrogen volatile fuel cell in the field of long-distance and heavy load.
The agency further proposed that the hydrogen energy industry chain involves many links and application scenarios, has broad development space, and is expected to become a trillion market in the future. It is suggested to pay attention to the layout of coal hydrogen production enterprises: China Petroleum & Chemical Corporation(600028) ; It is suggested to focus on the layout of industrial by-product hydrogen Enterprises: Petrochina Company Limited(601857) , satellite chemistry, Ningxia Baofeng Energy Group Co.Ltd(600989) , Oriental Energy Co.Ltd(002221) , Jiangxi Jovo Energy Co.Ltd(605090) , China Xuyang group; It is suggested to pay attention to the layout of hydrogen production enterprises from electrolytic water: Ningxia Baofeng Energy Group Co.Ltd(600989) ; It is suggested to pay attention to the layout of hydrogenation stations and hydrogenation unit enterprises: China Petroleum & Chemical Corporation(600028) , Petrochina Company Limited(601857) , satellite chemistry, Zhenhai Petrochemical Engineering Co.Ltd(603637) , Sinopec Shandong Taishan Pectroleum Co.Ltd(000554) .
II. Real estate development
Capital Securities said that the high-level statement released positive signals and the policy window period came. At present, the downward trend of industry fundamentals continues. In the first half of March, the sales area of high-frequency data decreased by 50.1% year-on-year, the de urbanization rate of new opening decreased significantly to 34%, and the de urbanization cycle of key cities increased significantly. Some private real estate enterprises are facing the pressure of debt payment in the short term, and there is a serious lack of confidence at both ends of supply and demand. At present, it is urgent to control the real estate risk. The high-level meeting made it clear that it is important to deal with the industry risk. To open up the industry liquidity chain, we should take the lead in seeing the recovery of sales, and the restoration of house purchase confidence urgently needs policy support. The relaxation of the policy has been made clear after the high-level statement. We judge that the adjustment time window for the four limit policy in key cities is in the second half of March. The statement on the real estate tax eliminated a major negative factor that suppressed demand during the year.
Wanlian Securities pointed out that under the macro background of “stable growth”, the fundamentals of the current real estate industry continue to bottom, and the marginal improvement policy continues. It is expected that there are still many favorable policies to be expected in the follow-up, and continue to be optimistic about the market performance of the real estate sector. It is suggested to pay attention to (1) property management companies with good fundamental performance; (2) High quality real estate enterprises with financial stability and background of central enterprises / state-owned enterprises; (3) Real estate enterprises with high-quality holding properties or transformation enterprises, or effectively form a virtuous capital cycle of “development +”.
Shenyin Wanguo Securities mentioned that real estate is still the pillar industry of China’s national economy, and the contribution of the industry itself and the industrial chain to GDP accounts for nearly 30%. However, at present, under the multiple regulation and financial difficulties, the impact on the economy may gradually enter the low drag stage. In view of the recent frequent voices of the government emphasizing stabilizing the economy, steady growth and preventing and controlling financial risks, while stabilizing the economy urgently needs to stabilize the real estate, it is expected that the policy repair at both ends of supply and demand of the real estate industry is expected to accelerate, and will promote the optimization of the industry pattern and further enhance the concentration, and the high-quality real estate enterprises are expected to usher in both quantity and quality.
The agency further analyzed and maintained the “optimistic” rating of the real estate sector. Recommendations: A shares: Poly Developments And Holdings Group Co.Ltd(600048) , Gemdale Corporation(600383) , Xiamen C&D Inc(600153) , Seazen Holdings Co.Ltd(601155) , China Merchants Shekou Industrial Zone Holdings Co.Ltd(001979) , Jinke Property Group Co.Ltd(000656) , China State Construction Engineering Corporation Limited(601668) , China Vanke Co.Ltd(000002) ; H shares: China Resources Land, China overseas development, Longhu group, Xuhui holdings, country garden; And maintain the “optimistic” rating of the property management sector, and recommend: Country Garden service, Xuhui Yongsheng service, China Resources Vientiane, poly property, CNOOC property, New Dazheng Property Group Co.Ltd(002968) , Greentown service, Baolong business and xinchengyue service.
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