In the peak season of March, cement manufacturers in many places across the country sent another "price increase letter", and cement prices in Shanxi, Henan, Jiangxi, Jiangsu, Hubei and other places increased.
Luo Zijian, a cement dealer in Hubei, told the 21st Century Business Herald that from March 10, cement manufacturers in Huanggang, Ezhou and other places in Hubei Province have notified to increase the cement price by 20-30 yuan / ton. Last week, cement manufacturers in Shiyan followed up and raised the cement price by 50 yuan / ton.
Turning to the reasons for the rise, Luo Zijian said that the turmoil in the international market has brought more uncertainties. The prices of international energy raw materials have risen sharply, and coal prices have risen rapidly; Affected by the epidemic and other factors, the cost of logistics and transportation has also increased. In addition, the higher cement prices in Henan and other surrounding markets also stimulate and drive Hubei. Some manufacturers have a strong willingness to increase prices to alleviate the pressure of rising costs.
Data show that as of March 18, the national p.o42 5. The average price of bulk cement was 477.26 yuan / ton, a slight increase of 0.85% month on month and 17.55% year-on-year Boc International (China) Co.Ltd(601696) analyst Chen Haowu said that judging from the recently announced annual performance of 2021 of several cement enterprises, the performance has ups and downs, and the cement industry is ushering in a period of high cost and high price.
cement price moves up as a whole
From a national perspective, the rising areas of cement prices are mainly concentrated in central and southern China, East China and other regions.
According to the monitoring data of securities companies, after the Spring Festival, the cement price in Zhejiang has basically completed a round of general rise, and two rounds of increase have been completed in some markets; The price of raw materials in central and southern China rose, and the price of cement rose by 1.36%; The demand in Southwest China has recovered one after another, and the cement price has increased by 0.9%. Affected by cloudy and rainy weather, the demand in Northwest China was weak, and the price decreased by 1.04% month on month; The market in Northeast China is relatively stable. Kilns have been opened in Liaoning, but the construction demand is temporarily low, and the price has not changed compared with last week.
Taking Henan as an example, since March, the price of cement in Henan has increased by two rounds, and the cumulative increase of cement price of some cement enterprises has reached 100 yuan / ton.
In an interview with reporters, the sales director of a cement enterprise in Henan said that the main raw materials and energy for cement production are limestone, coal and electricity, of which coal and electricity account for a large proportion. At present, the coal price in Henan has a rising trend. The coal price of some cement enterprises has reached 1700 yuan / ton, which has increased by about 250 yuan / ton in half a month. It is generally estimated in the industry that for every 100 yuan / ton increase in the general coal price, the cement cost will increase by 10-15 yuan / ton.
In addition, the off peak production in many provinces in East China has ended one after another, and the demand is recovering slowly. The price of cement in Shandong, Anhui and other places has increased by 30-60 yuan / ton.
Looking back on 2021, the national cement market is not calm. Under the background of sharp rise in production costs and contraction of supply, the cement price fluctuates sharply, which is "restrained first and then increased".
Guangdong Tapai Group Co.Ltd(002233) ( Guangdong Tapai Group Co.Ltd(002233) . SZ) said in the 2021 annual report that the cement price moved up as a whole and reached a record high. On the whole, the annual cement sales price of the company increased by 8.03% over the same period of last year; Affected by the rise of coal price, the company's cement sales cost increased by 12.68% compared with the same period of last year. The increase of cost is greater than that of selling price, which makes the company's comprehensive gross profit margin decreased by 2.44 percentage points year-on-year, and the profitability of cement products decreased slightly year-on-year.
From the trend of the national cement price index, in the middle and late October of last year, the index began to adjust downward after reaching the high point. The decline continued until late February of this year, and then began to stop falling and recover slowly. Years later, the lowest point of the cement index was 160.46 at the end of January. Even so, it was nearly 10 points higher than 151.45 in the same period last year.
In terms of price, according to the big data of China cement network, by the end of February, the average price of cement in China was still 67 yuan / ton higher than that in the same period last year, with an increase of 15.13%.
accelerate the pace of transformation and upgrading
Although the cement price is at a high level, since the second half of last year, affected by the declining growth rate of real estate and infrastructure investment, the weak cement demand has continued to this day. According to the data released by the National Bureau of statistics, from January to February this year, the national cement output was 199.33 million tons, a year-on-year decrease of 17.8%. Excluding the special years affected by the epidemic in 2020, January February this year is the year with the lowest cement production in recent ten years.
Affected by multiple factors, the net profit of some listed companies fell Gansu Qilianshan Cement Group Co.Ltd(600720) ( Gansu Qilianshan Cement Group Co.Ltd(600720) . SH) 2021 annual report shows that the company's main revenue is 7.673 billion yuan, a year-on-year decrease of 1.78%; The net profit attributable to the parent company was 948 million yuan, a year-on-year decrease of 34.07%; Deduct non net profit of 961 million yuan, a year-on-year decrease of 36.65% Gansu Qilianshan Cement Group Co.Ltd(600720) said that in 2021, the capital construction projects in the company's sales area were insufficient, the cement sales volume decreased year-on-year, and the coal price rose sharply, resulting in the year-on-year decline of the company's performance.
Ningxia Building Materials Group Co.Ltd(600449) ( Ningxia Building Materials Group Co.Ltd(600449) . SH) disclosed the annual report of 2021 on March 19, realizing an operating revenue of 5.783 billion yuan, a year-on-year increase of 13.17%; The net profit attributable to the shareholders of the listed company was 801 million yuan, a year-on-year decrease of 16.96%. The company said that the rise in raw coal prices brought about a rise in costs, resulting in a year-on-year decline in the company's profit index.
Chen Haowu believes that in the period of high cost and high price, the strength of infrastructure and real estate policies is the key factor affecting the prosperity of the cement industry. On March 16, the financial stability and Development Commission of the State Council held a special meeting, saying that we should earnestly revitalize the economy in the first quarter, take the initiative to respond to monetary policies, and maintain a moderate growth in new loans. The meeting conveyed the signal of stabilizing market expectations. The growth rate of infrastructure and fixed asset investment in the first two months performed well, and the demand of the cement industry can be solidly guaranteed this year.
Tianfeng Securities Co.Ltd(601162) pointed out in the research report that in the short term, due to the existence of epidemic factors, the recovery of downstream demand will be affected. After the epidemic is controlled, the demand will be released intensively and the price will continue to rise. In the medium and long term, cement has entered a period of downward demand. In the future, the industry will focus on the opportunities brought by the change of industry supply side under the objectives of "double control" and "double carbon".
The national development and Reform Commission, the national energy administration, the Ministry of industry and information technology and the Ministry of ecological environment recently jointly issued the implementation guide for the transformation and upgrading of energy conservation and carbon reduction in key areas of high energy consuming industries (2022 version), which mentioned that the proportion of clinker energy production above the energy efficiency benchmark level of the cement industry will reach 30% by 2025.
From the perspective of supply, the expectation of environmental protection and low carbon still maintains a "continuous overweight" trend for the cement industry. Factors such as "normalization of peak shifting production", "carbon peak", "power limitation" have an impact on the cement supply in most regions, and some cement enterprises are also accelerating structural adjustment and green transformation and upgrading.
Guangdong Tapai Group Co.Ltd(002233) said that it would promote a series of technological transformation, reduce energy consumption indicators and reduce clinker consumption; Expand the scale of cement industry through strategic cooperation, mergers and acquisitions. At the same time, we will vigorously develop emerging industries and accelerate the construction of projects such as photovoltaic power generation and collaborative disposal of cement kilns.
Xinjiang Tianshan Cement Co.Ltd(000877) announcement said that it would actively develop the "cement +" business. Continuously optimize the layout of commercial mixed business; Rapid development of aggregate business and increase resource reserves; Accelerate the collaborative disposal of solid waste, hazardous waste, domestic waste and other businesses.
