The revenue of lithium battery equipment industry increased sharply in 2021, and the profit differentiation. Since the second half of 2020, the orders of lithium battery equipment industry have increased rapidly, supporting the acceleration of revenue growth in 2021. With the expansion of orders and revenue scale, companies in lithium battery equipment industry are expected to reflect the large-scale effect and increase the net profit margin. From the performance forecast and performance express in 2021, the revenue of Companies in the lithium battery equipment industry generally increased high, but the growth rate of net profit was differentiated, which was mainly affected by factors such as equity incentive fees, acceptance rhythm and rapid personnel growth. In 2021, the number of employees of lithium battery equipment company will increase rapidly. After personnel training, they will improve production efficiency and expand production capacity. It is expected that the growth rate of personnel will slow down in 2022 and the problem of pre cost will be alleviated. At the same time, as the equipment companies continue to recognize revenue from orders in hand, the scale of revenue continues to expand, and the scale effect gradually appears. The profitability of lithium battery equipment enterprises is expected to be improved in 2022.
Shenzhen United Winners Laser Co.Ltd(688518) : the net interest rate in 2022 is flexible
Shenzhen United Winners Laser Co.Ltd(688518) 's products are used in power batteries, automobile manufacturing, hardware and household appliances, consumer electronics, optical communication and other manufacturing fields. According to the company's 2021 semi annual report, the company signed 1.921 billion yuan of new orders (including tax), of which 85% of the new orders came from the power battery industry. Assuming that the number of new orders signed by the company increased by 140% year-on-year in 2021, under the neutral assumption, the number of employees of the company increased by 35% in 2022 and the acceptance proportion in 2022 was 95%, it can be estimated that the revenue in 2022 is expected to reach 2.853 billion yuan, and the net interest rate is 10.8%, an increase of 4.3 PCT year-on-year compared with 2021 Based on the sensitivity calculation of its net interest rate in 2022, assuming that the acceptance proportion in 2022 is 85% ~ 105% and the employee growth rate is 20% ~ 50%, it can be calculated that its net interest rate is 7.2% ~ 13.8%, and the net interest rate is flexible.
Wuxi Lead Intelligent Equipment Co.Ltd(300450) : the net interest rate is expected to continue to rise at a high level in 2022
Wuxi Lead Intelligent Equipment Co.Ltd(300450) is the leading enterprise of new energy equipment in the world. Its business covers lithium battery equipment, photovoltaic equipment, 3C testing equipment, intelligent warehousing and logistics system, automobile intelligent production line, etc. Thanks to the continuous rapid and sustainable development of the lithium battery industry, the company has actively explored markets at home and abroad on the basis of stabilizing its original customers, and the company's lithium battery intelligent equipment business has achieved sustained and rapid growth. According to the company's advance receipts and the company's semi annual report, assuming that the number of new orders signed by the company increased by 70% year-on-year in 2021, under the neutral assumption, the number of employees increased by 30% in 2022 and the acceptance proportion in 2022 was 95%, it can be estimated that the revenue in 2022 is expected to reach 17.867 billion yuan, and the net interest rate is 19.1%, an increase of 2.5pct compared with the same period in 2021 Based on the sensitivity calculation of its net interest rate in 2022, assuming that the acceptance proportion in 2022 is 85 ~ 105% and the growth rate of employees is 10% ~ 50%, it can be calculated that its net interest rate is 16.9% ~ 20.8%, which is expected to continue to increase at a high level.
2022q1: Shenzhen United Winners Laser Co.Ltd(688518) is significantly affected by the acceptance, and Wuxi Lead Intelligent Equipment Co.Ltd(300450) is relatively stable. At the time of confirmation of hand order revenue, it has a great impact on the change of revenue in a single quarter. Therefore, the dilution effect of costs and expenses in a single quarter will be more significant, and the corresponding change of net interest rate in a single quarter will be more obvious. Within the reasonable range of changes in the confirmation proportion of hand orders, Shenzhen United Winners Laser Co.Ltd(688518) net interest rate is more flexible, but it is also more affected by the acceptance rhythm. Under neutral circumstances, the net interest rate of 2022q1 may be increased to 7.6%, under pessimistic circumstances, the net interest rate is estimated to be about 4.7%, and under optimistic circumstances, the net interest rate is expected to be increased to 10.0% Wuxi Lead Intelligent Equipment Co.Ltd(300450) net interest rate is relatively less affected by the acceptance rhythm, continues to remain high, and the change range is relatively small. It is estimated that the net interest rate of 2022q1 may be between 16.9% - 20.5%. (the purpose of the above calculation is to analyze the impact of acceptance rhythm and personnel growth factors on the net interest rate of lithium battery equipment companies with different revenue scales, which does not constitute a profit forecast for relevant equipment companies.) Risk statement
1. The sales volume of new energy vehicles is lower than expected;
2. The expansion of the battery plant is less than expected;
3. The personnel growth of the equipment company exceeded expectations, the order acceptance was less than expected, and the cost control was less than expected.
