I. pig sector: pig prices have bottomed out, feed costs have risen, and breeding losses have further intensified. According to the data of zhuyitong, the average price of Sanyuan pigs across the country on Sunday was 11.74 yuan / kg, down 3.0% on a week-on-week basis and 56.5% on a year-on-year basis; In addition, according to statistics, the profit of self breeding pigs this week was -547.16 yuan / head, down 5.7% month on week and 155.7% year-on-year; The breeding profit of purchased piglets was -258.05 yuan / head, down 33.4% on a week-on-week basis and up 23.4% year-on-year. The breeding loss was further expanded. Looking forward to the future, the rising price of feed raw materials has further squeezed the breeding profit from the cost side. Among them, the price of commercial feed for fattening pigs has been raised for many times since this year. It is estimated that the average increase in the cost of fattening pigs may reach more than 0.5 yuan / kg; For large-scale breeding enterprises equipped with feed plants, due to the increase of the purchase price of feed raw materials, the increase of self batching cost is higher. Considering the difference of feed formula, it is estimated that the increase of self batching cost may reach 0.7-0.9 yuan / kg. Considering the lag effect of fat pig marketing cost accounting, it is expected that the breeding end will still bear significant loss pressure in the future. At the same time, considering the large cost dispersion between different breeding entities, if the pig price continues to fluctuate at the bottom, we believe that farmers with high cost and high debt ratio may become the main force of subsequent capacity removal. The removal rates of fertile sows in China from January to February this year are – 0.9% and – 0.5% respectively, Since the peak of production capacity in June of the 21st year, the cumulative de conversion rate has exceeded 6%. We believe that we are still in the time window of accelerating the de conversion of pig production capacity. It is suggested to focus on the continuous verification of the logic of pig price decline – breeding loss – capacity de conversion. From the perspective of cycle, it is still suggested to focus on grasping the layout opportunities on the left. In terms of stock selection, it is suggested to comprehensively grasp the factors such as capital security, flexibility of listing volume and relative predictability of cost. It is suggested to focus on the targets such as Wen, muyuan, superstar and Tiankang.
II. Dynamic insurance sector: in the past 22 years, it is recommended to grasp the two main investment lines of the dynamic insurance sector, focusing on Pulike Biological Engineering Inc(603566) , which underestimates the value and has strong catalysis, followed by Jinyu Bio-Technology Co.Ltd(600201) , Hvsen Biotechnology Co.Ltd(300871) and China Animal Husbandry Industry Co.Ltd(600195) . Historically, there are two main investment lines in the dynamic insurance sector: ① post cycle logic; ② Large single product Catalytic logic. From the perspective of the deduction process of industry fundamentals, we believe that the current time point should focus on logic ②, that is, the catalysis of the research and development progress of non plague vaccine. At this stage, among different technical routes such as subunit, live vector and gene deletion live vaccine, the research and development of subunit vaccine has achieved phased leadership. The Ministry of Agriculture plans to promote the emergency evaluation of non plague subunit vaccine. In the early stage, the required materials have been consulted, the evaluation principles have been determined, or it is expected to speed up the pace of relevant vaccine research and development and industrial application, We expect that under optimistic circumstances, the issuance of temporary production approvals is expected to be realized within this year, and the formal commercial application cycle may be entered next year. It is suggested to focus on Pulike Biological Engineering Inc(603566) , which has outstanding platform advantages of sub units. Secondly, from the perspective of logic ①, 2022h2 animal protection industry may meet the marginal improvement of supply and demand fundamentals. The demand side driving factor comes from the gradual recovery of pig prices in the second half of the year, which drives the recovery of vaccine and chemical drug demand, while the supply side driving factor may be more certain. The implementation of the new veterinary drug GMP will eliminate the inefficient production capacity of the industry. It will enter an excellent verification time point in June. It is expected that the supply and demand pattern of the chemical drug industry may be significantly improved, The industry concentration is also expected to increase steadily. In addition, with the expectation of profit restoration of chemical pharmaceutical enterprises caused by the sharp drop in the price of chemical pharmaceutical raw materials this year, it is suggested to focus on the subject China Animal Husbandry Industry Co.Ltd(600195) , Hvsen Biotechnology Co.Ltd(300871) , Hvsen Biotechnology Co.Ltd(300871) . In addition, it is recommended to recommend the animal insurance leader Jinyu Bio-Technology Co.Ltd(600201) , which is obviously undervalued at this stage.
III. feed sector: from January to February, the output of pig feed increased by 2.9% and the price of fattening pig compound increased by 3.0%.
According to the China Feed Industry Association, from January to February 2022, the total output of industrial feed in China was 43.84 million tons, an increase of 3.5% at the same time, of which the output of pig feed was 21.26 million tons, an increase of 2.9% at the same time; The output of egg and poultry feed was 5.25 million tons, a decrease of 0.9% at the same time; The feed output of meat and poultry, aquatic products and ruminants was 12.65 million tons, 1.67 million tons and 2.51 million tons respectively, with a year-on-year increase of 4.2%, 31.3% and 3.7% respectively. On the price side, from January to February, the average price of compound feed for fattening pigs increased by 1.2% month on month and 3.0% year-on-year; The average price of concentrated feed for fattening pigs increased by 2.0% month on month and 1.7% year-on-year. In terms of feed formula, from January to February, the amount of corn in the compound feed produced by feed enterprises accounted for 35.3%, down 0.9 PCT at the same time, and the amount of soybean meal in the compound feed and concentrated feed accounted for 14.7%, up 0.5 PCT year-on-year.
IV. price tracking of poultry chain: ① for white chicken, according to Boya Hexun, the price of broiler seedlings in the main production area this Friday was 0.76 yuan / feather, down 31.5% month on week and 85.1% year-on-year; The average price of chicken products in the main production areas was 9.62 yuan / kg, down 1.3% week on week and 5.2% year-on-year; The average price of white feather broilers in the main production areas was 7.84 yuan / kg, with a weekly increase of 0.4% and a year-on-year decrease of 9.0%; Gross chicken breeding profit was -0.56 yuan / feather, up 13.8 yuan / feather on a weekly basis, down 33.3% year-on-year. ② In terms of yellow chicken, the price of fast big chicken on Friday was 6.17 yuan / kg, down 2.2% week on week and 10.8% year-on-year; The price of medium speed chicken was 7.06 yuan / kg, up 3.8% on a weekly basis and down 1.9% on a year-on-year basis; The price of native chicken was 8.49 yuan / kg, unchanged on a week-on-week basis, down 0.2% year-on-year; The price of black bone chicken was 8.64 yuan / kg, up 5.2% on a weekly basis and 12.1% on a year-on-year basis.
Risk warning: spread of animal diseases; Intensified market competition; Product quality problems.
