According to the statistics of China Automobile Association:
(1) in February, China produced 1.813 million vehicles, a year-on-year increase of + 20.6%; 1.737 million vehicles were sold, a year-on-year increase of + 18.7%. Among them, 1.534 million passenger cars were produced, a year-on-year increase of + 32.0%; Sold 1.487 million vehicles, a year-on-year increase of + 27.8%. 279000 commercial vehicles were produced, a year-on-year increase of – 18.3%; 250000 vehicles were sold, a year-on-year increase of – 16.6%.
(2) from January to February, China’s automobile production and sales were 4.235 million and 4.268 million respectively, with a year-on-year increase of + 8.8% and + 7.5%. Among them, the production and sales of passenger cars were 3.612 million and 3.674 million, with a year-on-year increase of + 17.6% and + 14.4%; The production and sales of commercial vehicles were 624000 and 594000, with a year-on-year increase of – 24.0% and – 21.7%.
Sector valuation level tracking
The valuation of the passenger car sector increased slightly. In February, under the influence of the Spring Festival and local epidemic, the production and sales of passenger cars fell month on month and continued to grow year-on-year; New energy vehicles production and sales maintained a high growth rate, the ring ratio has dropped. According to the official account of China Automobile Association, the penetration rate of new energy vehicles reached 17.9% in the first two months. We believe that the market demand is slightly weaker in the current outbreak of the outbreak, but with the gradual easing of the supply of chips, the production side is gradually recovering, making the market into the replenishment stage.
The valuation of the heavy truck sector declined, and the sales volume of heavy trucks continued to decline year-on-year in February. We judge that the decline in the prosperity of the heavy truck industry is mainly affected by the full implementation of the national six standards for heavy trucks in the second half of 2021.
The valuation of the bus sector has declined. We believe that on the whole, the future growth space of the bus market is limited, and affected by the decline of new energy subsidies year by year, the cash flow pressure of the car factory is high, the degree of bus electrification is already high, and the subsequent ceiling of new energy penetration will gradually appear.
The valuation of the auto parts sector has declined. We believe that there is obvious differentiation in the valuation and repair rhythm of the auto parts sector. We need to focus on whether the vehicle cycle is coming and whether there are industry penetration dividends. Among them, we suggest to focus on the stocks with strong growth in the performance segmentation industry in the next 2-3 years and the prosperity of supporting vehicle customers is expected to improve.
The valuation of dealers increased slightly. We believe that the current inventory level is low and in the stage of replenishing inventory. The profitability of dealers has improved relatively, the pressure of cash flow has been released, and the profitability of dealers is expected to continue to rise.
Interpretation of detailed industry data in February
According to the data of China Automobile Association:
Sales of 1.737 million cars in July, an increase of 1.732%; (2) In February, 1.487 million passenger cars were sold, with a year-on-year increase of 27.8%, of which 734000 SUVs were sold, with a year-on-year increase of 29.7%; (3) In February, 250000 commercial vehicles were sold, a year-on-year decrease of 16.6%, including 59000 heavy trucks, a year-on-year decrease of 49.9%, and 35000 large and medium-sized passenger vehicles, a year-on-year increase of 15.1%;
(4) in February, 368000 new energy vehicles were produced, with a year-on-year increase of 197.5%, and 334000 vehicles were sold, with a year-on-year increase of 184.3%; (5) Some key tracking data of Vehicle Enterprises: Saic Motor Corporation Limited(600104) , Great Wall Motor Company Limited(601633) , Chongqing Changan Automobile Company Limited(000625) .
Investment view
In February 2022, under the influence of the Spring Festival and local epidemic and other factors, the industry’s production and sales fell month on month, but continued to grow year-on-year. The overall demand of the passenger car market was weak, but the production side performed relatively well under the situation of alleviating the lack of core. The market as a whole was in the stage of replenishing inventory. We judged that the shortage of core supply was continuously improving and was expected to be solved in the second half of the year; In 2022, the new energy vehicle market started steadily, with sales volume maintaining a high year-on-year growth rate in February, and the penetration rate of new energy vehicles reached 17.9% in the first two months. We expect that under the tone of steady growth, car sales are expected to increase steadily this year, in which new energy vehicles will contribute the main increment, and the short-term cost side disturbance will not change the long-term good trend. Electrification, intelligent networking and platform architecture build vehicles to promote a new cycle of Industrial Science and technology. In addition to new forces, traditional technologies such as the public have also been actively transformed, and China’s independent leader has turned very quickly. The knockout round has begun, but the finish line has not yet arrived.
We believe that the era of intelligent electrification in the automotive industry is opening, electrification has begun to show its edge, and intelligence is expected to become the next growth point, maintaining the rating of “better than the big market” in the automotive industry in 2022.
(1) focus on the high-quality vehicle leader with firm scientific and technological transformation and good sales trend. It is suggested to pay attention to the vehicle enterprises Geely Automobile, Great Wall Motor Company Limited(601633) , Saic Motor Corporation Limited(600104) , Chongqing Changan Automobile Company Limited(000625) , Guangzhou Automobile Group Co.Ltd(601238) , Byd Company Limited(002594) , etc; (2) The industry cycle of parts and components industry has been steady, and the cycle of the industry cycle of parts and components industry has been steady. The industry cycle of imports has been accelerating, and smart electric networks have been able to deliver energy. It is suggested to focus attention on ‘ Fuyao Glass Industry Group Co.Ltd(600660) of the Shanghai Kelai Mechatronics Engineering Co.Ltd(603960) , Zhejiang Sanhua Intelligent Controls Co.Ltd(002050) , Ningbo Jifeng Auto Parts Co.Ltd(603997) , Jiangsu Xinquan Automotive Trim Co.Ltd(603179) , Kunshan Huguang Auto Harness Co.Ltd(605333) , etc.
Risk tip: the recovery of automobile industry is not as expected; The price of raw materials fluctuates greatly; The exchange rate fluctuated sharply.
