Industry daily / weekly / biweekly / monthly report: Transportation weekly report database aviation reappears to the dark time, and the volume and price of express delivery increase as scheduled 202203-22 aviation: Aviation reappears to the dark time, and the diagnosis and treatment optimization improves the certainty of recovery.
Express delivery: from January to February, the volume and price increased as scheduled, and the epidemic situation did not change and was repaired profitably.
Shipping: container freight rates fluctuate at a high level, and oil transportation waits for the bottom.
Bulk supply chain: with steady growth, the performance can be expected to grow steadily.
Risk warning. Epidemic situation, control, additional dilution, economic downturn, oil price and exchange rate, safety accidents, etc.
Industry strategy: environmental protection bid farewell to the old environmental protection and welcome the new era, March 22, 2022 investment suggestion: find the second growth curve of the environmental protection industry. 1) To launch the waste incineration industry in the first place: recommend the industry of waste incineration: recommend the main business to grow steadily and identify companies that are expected to make a transition while identifying companies with the prospect of transformation, Fujian Longking Co.Ltd(600388) \ , Shanghai Environment Group Co.Ltd(601200) , Shengyuan Environmental Protection Co.Ltd(300867) is the beneficiary object. 2) Recommend renewable resource industries that can export negative carbon tax to the EU: ① renewable oil: recommend Longyan Zhuoyue New Energy Co.Ltd(688196) , and the beneficiaries include Bece Legend Group Co.Ltd(000803) , Zhejiang Jiaao Enprotech Stock Co.Ltd(603822) . ② Recycled plastics: recommend Beijing Sanlian Hope Shin-Gosentechnical Service Co.Ltd(300384) , and benefit from Shandong Intco Recycling Resources Co.Ltd(688087) . ③ Recycled metal: recommend Beijing Geoenviron Engineering & Technology Inc(603588) , and benefit from Zhefu Holding Group Co.Ltd(002266) , China Resourcesand Environment Co.Ltd(600217) , Gem Co.Ltd(002340) , etc. 3) Under the background of the rapid development of power auxiliary service industry, it is recommended to invest in the flexible transformation of thermal power, and Qingdao Daneng Environmental Protection Equipment Co.Ltd(688501) .
Historical recovery: the passive repair cycle of the balance sheet has passed, and the industry is looking for a new valuation anchor. 1) The environmental protection industry has seriously underperformed the market in the past three years, and the sector valuation center has been moving downward. 2) The core reason for the poor performance of the industry in the past few years is that a large number of PPP projects drag environmental protection companies into the passive statement repair cycle, and the spiral deterioration of balance sheet and income statement. 3) At present, the environmental protection engineering company has preliminarily completed the report repair through the introduction of mixed debt replacement, and the valuation center is relatively stable. 4) Environmental protection operation companies (mainly waste incineration) have abundant cash flow, stable expansion, and higher cost performance of valuation and net profit growth.
Looking forward to the future: high cash flow companies are looking for the second growth curve and waiting for the transformation to exceed expectations. 1) Solid waste and other operating companies have natural cash flow advantages, and there are preconditions for turning to new energy and other broader markets; 2) At present, most leading solid waste enterprises have transformation expectations and implement transformation strategies in new fields such as green power operators and new energy material manufacturers. 3) With the gradual promotion of the transformation strategy of high-quality companies, finding the second growth curve of the industry will become the core logic of stock selection in the next stage.
Industry segmentation: waste incineration seeks the second growth curve and renewable resources wait for the logic of volume and price to be fulfilled. 1) The waste incineration industry has significantly benefited from carbon neutralization, and the leader has started to look for the logic of the second growth curve: first, methane emission reduction constraints will bring new demand to the industry, and the total scale of waste incineration in China will exceed market expectations; Secondly, CCER transaction improves the profitability and cash flow level of waste incineration companies; Finally, the transformation logic of leading companies has been gradually implemented, and the transformation track has obtained new growth momentum, which also helps to improve the valuation center. It is worth looking forward to double clicking. 2) Renewable resources have the ability to export negative carbon tax to the EU, among which Petrochemical renewable resources have entered the golden period of volume increase and price rise: first, the renewable oil industry benefits from the constraints of EU policies, the supply is in short supply, and the volume and price are at a high level for a long time. With the upgrading of China’s high-end renewable oil products, the industry growth rate is expected to exceed expectations.
Secondly, the high-end recycling of PET bottles is driven by global policies, and the application and replacement speed is faster than expected. Finally, non Petrochemical renewable industries, such as renewable metals, are expected to receive attention in the process of gradually integrating high energy consuming industries into carbon trading and the implementation of the EU CBAM act. The output will increase greatly, and the pricing system will also integrate the carbon price factor.
Risk tips: changes in industrial policies, lower than expected project progress, sharp fluctuations in raw material prices, etc.
Industry daily / weekly / biweekly / monthly: transportation “aviation reappears to the dark hour, and the volume and price of express delivery increase as scheduled” 202203-22
Aviation: Aviation reappears to the dark moment, and the optimization of diagnosis and treatment improves the certainty of recovery. The repeated epidemic caused the continuous decline of air passenger flow. In mid March, China’s passenger flow fell to less than 30% in 2019. With low fleet turnover and rising oil prices, the airline company is expected to reproduce large industrial losses in the first quarter. Recently, the covid-19 diagnosis and treatment plan has been strategically optimized. It is expected that China’s epidemic prevention policy will continue in the short term, which is of significance to further enhance the certainty of the recovery of the civil aviation industry in the next two years. When the epidemic situation in China is under control, aviation demand is expected to recover rapidly. The medium-term recovery of aviation is determined, and the long-term prospect is optimistic. The recent epidemic has catalyzed the return of international liberalization and short-term performance expectations to rationality. It is suggested to pay attention to the reverse timing. Maintain the ratings of Air China Limited(601111) h / A, CAAC information network h, China Eastern Airlines Corporation Limited(600115) h / A, China Southern Airlines Company Limited(600029) h, Spring Airlines Co.Ltd(601021) “overweight”.
Express delivery: from January to February, the volume and price increased as scheduled, and the epidemic situation did not change and was repaired profitably. From January to February, the industry’s express delivery volume increased by nearly 20% year-on-year, better than the market expectation. Recently, the epidemic has been repeated in many places across the country, and the operation of some outlets has been blocked, which is expected to affect the growth rate of express delivery in March. Express companies have performed well in raising prices in the off-season of the Spring Festival. It is expected that the single ticket revenue in March will fall seasonally, and the impact of the epidemic will be limited. It is expected to maintain the high year-on-year growth of sector performance in the first half of the year. Recently, the State Post Office held a symposium in Yiwu, emphasizing the need to maintain fair and healthy market order and the continuous release of industrial regulatory signals. It is expected that the competition stage of the industry will slow down in 2022 and the profitability will be determined. The performance growth in the first half of the year is expected to exceed expectations, which will drive the second wave of valuation repair. Maintain the “overweight” rating of Zhongtong express, Yto Express Group Co.Ltd(600233) , Yunda Holding Co.Ltd(002120) .
Shipping: container freight rates fluctuate at a high level, and oil transportation waits for the bottom. Centralized transportation: Recently, the loading rate of routes from Shanghai to Europe and the United States has remained close to full load, and the freight rate has fluctuated at a high level. Last week, the US West freight index reached ccfi-4%, scfi-1% and fbx-2%. With the gradual weakening of the impact of the epidemic in the United States and the marginal improvement of port congestion in the west of the United States, the number of ships waiting to berth in Los Angeles port has dropped by nearly half in the past month. At the same time, considering that the US fiscal stimulus may weaken and the physical consumption will return to the service consumption. It is suggested to be alert to the risk of demand inflection point and maintain the “neutral” rating of the centralized transportation industry. Oil transportation:
It is suggested to wait for the opportunity of the bottom. Affected by the conflict between Russia and Ukraine, VLCC freight rates rose and fell in March. VLCC Middle East China TCE surged up to US $10000 / day, then quickly fell back and remained at a low of US $10000 / day.
The future fundamental impact depends on European sanctions against Russia. Considering the risk of European energy crisis, it is difficult to study and judge. It is suggested to wait for the short-term mood to fall, grasp the oil transportation in the next two years, and determine the timing of recovery at the bottom.
Bulk supply chain: with steady growth, the performance can be expected to grow steadily. It is estimated that the average price of bulk commodities in the first quarter of 2022 is + 7%, iron ore – 16% and coking coal + 95% year-on-year. Considering that the bulk commodity prices in 2021 are low before and high after, the market is worried that the bulk commodity prices will fall year-on-year, and the performance of bulk supply chain enterprises is under pressure. We believe that under the background of steady growth, infrastructure construction is expected to stimulate the demand for steel. More importantly, the market share will be concentrated to the top enterprises, and the performance will exceed the expectation, and the steady growth can be expected. Reiterate Xiamen C&D Inc(600153) overweight rating. Supply chain + real estate, with sustained growth in performance and excellent risk control history in the past two decades. It is expected that the annual report of 2021 will exceed the market expectation. In the near future, the performance of the “14th five year plan” is expected to maintain an annual growth of more than 15%. At present, PE is only 5 times, the dividend policy is stable, and the dividend yield is 5%. It is suggested to increase holdings.
Risk warning. Epidemic situation, control, additional dilution, economic downturn, oil price and exchange rate, safety accidents, etc.
Industry daily / weekly / biweekly / monthly report: ocean shipping “container freight rate fluctuates at a high level, oil transportation waits for the bottom” 202203-22
I. container transportation: the freight rate remains at an all-time high and guard against the risk of demand inflection point. II. Dry bulk transportation: the conflict between Russia and Ukraine may have an impact on the grain shipping in the Black Sea. III. crude oil shipping market: the short-term sentiment gradually drops and it is suggested to wait for the bottom opportunity. IV. investment strategy: maintain the neutral rating of centralized transportation and pay attention to the reverse opportunity of oil transportation. V. risk tips. Antitrust supervision risk, price transmission pressure, new ship order risk and economic fluctuation risk.
Industry daily / weekly / biweekly / monthly: from new cycle to new stage of real estate
\u3000\u30 Shanghai Kehua Bio-Engineering Co.Ltd(002022) 03-22
The growth rate at the bottom is slow and the policy transmission effect is relaxed. 1) This month, the sales area of 15 real estate enterprises decreased by 31.2% year-on-year, and the sales amount decreased by 38.9% year-on-year. In absolute terms, it is at the lowest level in recent four years, indicating that the demand side is still weak. 2) Recently, cities have continuously issued demand side support policies. We expect that the pure demand side policy will be conducted slowly under the background that the residents’ income is constrained by the economic downturn and the population urbanization is basically coming to an end. The pace and intensity of demand recovery will be lower than market expectations, which can only play a supporting role in general. 3) In the context of economic transformation and upgrading, the current round of relaxation of demand side restrictions and even support for house purchase will be the beginning of the policy orientation to support demand in the next 10 years, promote population agglomeration to urban agglomeration, and promote the improvement of total factor productivity through agglomeration effect and knowledge spillover.
The land market has improved slightly, and it is expected that there will be obvious differentiation in 2022. 1) In the first round of land auction in Beijing in 2022 this month, the participation of head state-owned central enterprises is still acceptable. It can be seen that for plots with low risk and clear profit, real estate enterprises still have the ability and enthusiasm to participate, but mainly head state-owned central enterprises. For plots with low definition, real estate enterprises generally will not participate. 2) If we look at the annual land acquisition demand and national land supply of real estate enterprises, we believe that there is a large choice space for real estate enterprises, especially in medium and high-energy cities, there will be obvious land acquisition opportunities.
If house prices remain stable, the land acquisition profit margin of real estate enterprises will increase to a certain extent.
Domestic financing has improved, while overseas financing is difficult to thaw. Under the continuous care of regulators, the domestic open market financing of the industry achieved positive growth year-on-year in February, the first time since the second half of 2021. However, the financing differentiation is still obvious. The main body of financing is the state-owned central enterprises, and the financing cost remains at a low level. Overseas financing continues to remain low, and the risk of large-scale housing enterprises with overseas stock bonds is still not low.
In the new stage of real estate, state-owned enterprises and high-quality private enterprises are recommended. Although the industry risks are constantly exposed, the introduction of early-stage policies is relatively restrained. The real estate will not usher in a new cycle brought by the re financialization of the supply side, but a new development stage based on the real housing demand. It is for this reason that the clearing of the industry and the running out of excellent enterprises can achieve stable profits and corresponding valuation repair. The market has a high degree of trust in state-owned enterprises, but there are still great doubts about private enterprises. We expect that with the continuous appearance of the effect of the supporting policy, the survival probability of some private enterprises will also be greatly improved. Recommend Poly Real estate, China Merchants Shekou Industrial Zone Holdings Co.Ltd(001979) , China Vanke Co.Ltd(000002) , China overseas development, China Resources Land, China Jinmao, green city China, CNOOC property, China Resources Vientiane services, etc. among central state-owned enterprises; Gemdale Corporation(600383) , Hangzhou Binjiang Real Estate Group Co.Ltd(002244) , Jinke Property Group Co.Ltd(000656) , Jiangsu Zhongnan Construction Group Co.Ltd(000961) , rongchuang China, rongchuang service, Xuhui holding group, country garden, Longhu group and Baolong business benefit from 5I5J Holding Group Co.Ltd(000560) , China Merchants Property Operation & Service Co.Ltd(001914) , country garden services.
Risk tip: the government re liberalizes the pre financing and land finance model.
Industry daily / weekly / biweekly / monthly report: the price of national waste white cardboard increased, the pulp price fluctuated, and the price of finishing cultural paper was very high, which maintained the rating of “overweight” of light industry on March 22, 2022. The competition pattern of cultural paper and white cardboard continues to improve, the supply of waste paper raw materials is tightened, the demand still needs macro support, and the incremental track of special paper continues to be developed. The recommended standard is the following of the following: Hongda Xingye Co.Ltd(002002) 078 , Shanying International Holdings Co.Ltd(600567) .
The supply pressure of new production capacity of overseas broad-leaved pulp may continue to increase, the stability of coniferous pulp is relatively strong, the import volume of wood pulp finished paper increases, the demand support of China’s downstream is poor, and the pattern of cultural paper industry is expected to continue to be optimized; Waste paper is a raw material, and the control ability determines the core competitiveness. The terminal demand of finished paper still needs macroeconomic support.
Wood pulp: the supply pressure of new production capacity of broad-leaved pulp may continue to increase, and coniferous pulp remains at a relatively medium and high level. Waste paper:
The import of foreign waste is prohibited, the total supply of waste paper in China is tightening, and the national waste is expected to continue to operate at a relatively high level. Specialty paper:
High boom terminal demand, new scene development increment of the track, high value-added categories to resist cyclical fluctuations, and the profit center of the integrated layout of Forest Pulp and paper is expected to break through. Cultural paper: the increase of China’s imported paper has impacted the price of finished paper, the double reduction of education and the double control of energy consumption may affect supply and demand, and the pattern of cultural paper industry is expected to continue to be optimized. Box board corrugated paper:
The support of waste paper cost is relatively strong, and the end consumer demand has weakened after the recovery and growth; In recent years, the newly added capacity is relatively limited, and the ability to control raw material channels determines the future industry position. White cardboard: high concentration, relatively stable profit level, expansion potential on the demand side and more new capacity on the supply side. Household paper: the oversupply pattern needs to be improved, the channel layout of leading paper enterprises is accelerated, the optimization of product structure continues, and the competition of end products is intensified.
The market price of waste yellow paperboard in China has increased, the inventory of packaging station has decreased, and the recovery volume is running at a low level. Corrugated box board operates in a large, stable and small tune, and the delivery is not warm and hot. The price of white board and white cardboard moved up slightly, and the market transaction was light. The average price of waste paper per ton increased by 22.48% year-on-year to 224.8%. The average price of corrugated paper was 3768 yuan / ton, down 22 yuan / ton from the average price of the previous period, with a month on month decrease of 0.58% and a year-on-year decrease of 4.20%; The average price of carton board paper was 4833 yuan / ton, with a month on month decrease of 0.25% and a year-on-year decrease of 0.95%.
The average price of whiteboard was 491625 yuan / ton, up 0.98% from last week and down 17.22% year-on-year; The average price of white cardboard was 6382 yuan / ton, up 1.09% from last week and down 33.96% year-on-year.
Long short game in the spot market of imported wood pulp and consolidation of pulp price shock. The fluctuation of coated paper market is limited, and the market mentality is cautious; The double offset paper market is relatively strong, and the price of large-scale paper mills remains stable. The local paper price of household paper is still stronger, and the delivery volume is general. The average price of imported coniferous pulp was 6956 yuan / ton, down 2.55% from last week and 3.08% year-on-year; The average price of imported broad-leaved pulp was 6173 yuan / ton, up 1.68% from last week and 5.34% year-on-year.
The average price of coated paper was 5680 yuan / ton, an increase of 0.57% month on month and a decrease of 22.30% over the same period last year; The average market price of double offset paper was 6018 yuan / ton, up 0.58% month on month and down 8.37% year-on-year. The average price of household paper was 6905 yuan / ton, up about 107.50 yuan / ton month on month, an increase of about 1.58%.
Risk tips: price fluctuation of raw materials and macroeconomic fluctuation
Industry special research: commercial banks’ Analysis on the catalytic effect of bank convertible bonds on positive stock market, March 22, 2022
Summary of investment law of bank convertible bond concept stock in capital market
I. before the issuance of convertible bonds
\u3000\u30001. The valuation of positive stock Pb is ≥ 1, and the stock price is expected to remain stable, so as to avoid excessive short-term increase, raise the convertible stock price, and increase the difficulty of subsequent convertible bonds to trigger forced redemption and replenish capital;
\u3000\u30002. Pb valuation of positive shares 1. If the bank’s performance is expected to be positive, it is expected to promote the convergence of share price to double the valuation, digest part of the distance from the trigger price of strong redemption in advance, accelerate the process of share conversion and boost market confidence.
II. After the issuance of convertible bonds
\u3000\u30001. Positive stock α For high-quality listed banks with income and independent market, it is more appropriate to trigger forced redemption for convertible bonds; 2. On the above basis, after the convertible bonds of high-quality listed banks enter the stock conversion period, they are mostly released continuously with good performance, so as to boost market confidence, catalyze the rise of stock prices, and promote the stock conversion and replenishment of capital as soon as possible; The market also expects that high-quality listed banks have both the motivation and ability to release good, actively buy and seek considerable returns, so as to form a positive cycle and promote each other.
III. before and after the trigger of forced redemption of convertible bonds
\u3000\u30001. In the sprint stage before redemption trigger, there will be short-term callback pressure on positive stocks; Within two weeks after triggering, the selling pressure of convertible bonds continued to suppress the positive stock market; Subsequently, the margin of selling pressure slowed down and the trend of positive stocks reversed; Near the redemption registration date / delisting date of convertible bonds, convertible bonds may usher in another round of small peak of stock conversion, dragging the positive shares upward.
\u3000\u30002. After the delisting of convertible bonds, the selling pressure was basically released, and the bank’s core capital was supplemented in place, opening up growth space for subsequent scale growth and strategic promotion. The positive stock market mostly continued the upward trend in the early stage, showing α profit.
\u3000\u30 Sichuan Chengfei Integration Technology Corp.Ltd(002190) 674
