Looking back on Monday's A-share market, the Shanghai and Shenzhen stock markets opened higher on the whole, and then the stock indexes performed differently. The Shanghai index once fell, while the Shenzhen Component Index ran red. After repeated shocks, the stock indexes turned green and fell back; In the afternoon, the index plunged further, and near the end of the trading, the stock index rebounded rapidly, showing a small V-shaped reversal pattern again.
As Soochow Securities Co.Ltd(601555) mentioned, the resilience of the current market oversold declines slightly, and may have a trend of platform consolidation shock. Due to many uncertain factors in the global market environment, the market fluctuation may be relatively large during the period . In terms of operation, investors can maintain medium and low positions, conduct short-term transactions in hot sectors, pay attention to stop profits and losses, and choose an opportunity to increase their positions after the market stabilizes in the later stage.
Technically speaking, Central China Securities Co.Ltd(601375) said that after last week's bottom recovery, the stock index is now poised to consolidate near 3250, and the momentum of investors entering the market to do more has weakened whether A-Shares can rebound continuously in the future still depends on the continuous promotion of favorable policies and the continuous entry of incremental funds . It is suggested to continue to pay attention to the changes in policy, capital and external market.
The agency further analyzed that expects that the possibility of small short-term shock of the Shanghai index is greater, and the possibility of small short-term consolidation of the gem is greater . We suggest that investors pay close attention to the investment opportunities in medicine, engineering infrastructure, real estate, new energy and other industries in the short term, and continue to pay close attention to the investment opportunities of undervalued blue chips in the middle line.
As for the future market, Aijian Securities pointed out that should not be pessimistic in this region, but there is no significant upward momentum at present. Therefore, we still focus on grasping trading opportunities . The valuation repair of emerging industries such as medicine related to the epidemic and technology with excessive emotional performance is still worthy of attention. Although there are trading opportunities, we also need to be cautious and pay attention to the control of positions and income expectations.
Guosheng Securities believes that the current market hot spots rotate rapidly, lack of main themes, and the sustainability of the trend of the weight sector is not strong. The over-the-counter incremental funds may still be on the sidelines, and the short-term upward pressure of the index is large at the same time, the high-level popular stocks are also differentiated. Be alert to the negative impact of their decline on the short-term sentiment of the market .
From the midline theme, 2022, as the closing year of the three-year action plan for state-owned enterprise reform, will accelerate the goal of mixed reform and reorganization of central enterprises and local state-owned enterprises. Individual stocks with the concept of state-owned enterprise reform may be more favored by the main funds, and there may be some emphasis on stock selection in the future. In terms of operation, should focus on low absorption, cautiously pursue the rise, and wait for the bottom of the market to be completed . You can pay attention to the layout timing of Dianxin, semiconductor, infrastructure and other sectors, or make a good choice under the current market.
Western Securities Co.Ltd(002673) said that the policy window period of in the first half of the year is opening, and the correction of deviation market is on the way . With the easing of concerns about the conflict in the peripheral situation, the Fed's interest rate hike boots fell to the ground. The liquidity pressure previously worried by the market is expected to ease periodically, and the global risk assets are expected to usher in a breathing period. Affected by the strong stability maintenance signal released at the special meeting of the financial stability and Development Commission, the market's early concerns about China concept stocks and Hong Kong stocks have been greatly alleviated, and the A-share market sentiment is expected to be further repaired. With the arrival of the disclosure period of the annual report and the first quarterly report, the performance of the growth sector is significantly stronger than the market, and the correction market has been quietly started in the market adjustment.
The agency further analyzed that under such an environment, the boom track leader with large adjustment range in the early stage and high performance fulfillment will usher in a round of restorative market . From the perspective of structure, the current focus on the performance, and the prosperity track leaders such as new energy, semiconductor, medicine and military industry that can be determined to be fulfilled are expected to usher in phased repair. In addition, the agriculture, food, textile and clothing sectors benefiting from inflation expectations are also expected to usher in a performance inflection point. At present, China's epidemic concerns have eased, and offline economic recovery related industries such as social service, retail, catering, shipping and traditional media are also ushering in the layout window period. The theme focuses on digital economy, comprehensive registration system reform, etc.
In the macro aspect, Shanxi Securities Co.Ltd(002500) pointed out that the LPR remained unchanged in March, which made the market expectation of interest rate reduction fall again. We believe that the main reasons are as follows : first, the interest rate is relatively low in the real economy, and the current low willingness of residents to borrow funds blocked the flow of macro liquidity into the real economy, so the effect of interest rate reduction is relatively limited; Second, the Federal Reserve recently announced an interest rate increase of 25bp, and the external market opened a tightening cycle, which may restrict China's further reduction of LPR in the short term; Third, the central bank previously carried out MLF operation, and the bid winning interest rate was the same as that of last month, so it is normal for LPR to remain unchanged. Overall, the weak demand for loans in the real economy may be the crux of the current restriction on the realization of the policy goal of "wide credit". It is suggested to continue to pay attention to the benefits of the policy on real estate, infrastructure, consumption and so on.
In terms of operational strategy, AVIC Securities said, from the current situation, the fundamentals of real estate and consumer sectors will still be at the bottom stage in the short term, but will recover in the future; Investment opportunities such as new infrastructure, old infrastructure, manufacturing, undervalued and high dividends deserve attention . It is suggested to pay attention to investment opportunities in relevant sectors. In addition, investors can participate in the rebound based on the medium and long-term fundamental logic and based on growth. patiently layout includes high-profile growth stocks such as semiconductor, photovoltaic and digital economy .
In addition, Ping An securities mentioned that A-Shares are expected to usher in the bottom grinding and repair stage in the short term ; However, under the background that the spread of the epidemic has dragged down consumption / production / infrastructure construction and real estate demand is still weak, China's fundamental pressure expectation has not reversed, and the pace of market participation still needs to be controlled. In terms of structure, it is suggested to select industries and companies with relatively high prosperity. Attention can be paid to high-end manufacturing, new infrastructure, pharmaceutical sector, inflation benefit sector, etc. at the same time, attention should also be paid to preventing industries and companies with obvious deterioration of fundamentals.
