Today (March 22), the Shanghai and Shenzhen stock markets opened low across the board, and then the stock indexes differentiated. The Shanghai index rose in shock, turning red and rising in the session, while the Shenzhen Component Index and the gem index showed a pulse downward exploration, showing a panoramic view of the weak shock pattern.
From the disk perspective, the light index and heavy individual stock market continues, and the related targets of covid-19, which has soared recently, are facing a correction. The large financial market led by securities companies is protected, real estate stocks stand at the outlet, and infrastructure sectors are also “stained”. In the real estate sector, as of press time, Shenzhen Sdg Service Co.Ltd(300917) “20cm” limit, Everbright Jiabao Co.Ltd(600622) , Shenzhen Worldunion Group Incorporated(002285) , China Fortune Land Development Co.Ltd(600340) , Suzhou New District Hi-Tech Industrial Co.Ltd(600736) , Rongan Property Co.Ltd(000517) , etc. In addition, the digital currency, agriculture, animal husbandry, feeding and fishery sectors also performed prominently. In the digital currency sector, Beijing Cuiwei Tower Co.Ltd(603123) soared the limit, Synthesis Electronic Technology Co.Ltd(300479) , Shenzhen Emperor Technology Company Limited(300546) , Hengbao Co.Ltd(002104) , Newcapec Electronics Co.Ltd(300248) , Chutian Dragon Co.Ltd(003040) and other gains were ahead.
Guosheng Securities believes that the current market hot spots rotate rapidly, lack of main themes, and the sustainability of the trend of the weight sector is not strong. The over-the-counter incremental funds may still be on the sidelines, and the short-term upward pressure of the index is large. At the same time, high-level popular stocks are also differentiated, and we should be alert to the negative impact of their decline on the short-term sentiment of the market.
At present, under the background of scattered A-share hotspots and intensified sector rotation, possible investment opportunities are hidden. Select some institutional research reports. Let’s see what themes are available for reference.
[theme 1] real estate development
Capital Securities said that the high-level statement released positive signals and the policy window period came. At present, the downward trend of industry fundamentals continues. In the first half of March, the sales area of high-frequency data decreased by 50.1% year-on-year, the de urbanization rate of new opening decreased significantly to 34%, and the de urbanization cycle of key cities increased significantly. Some private real estate enterprises are facing the pressure of debt payment in the short term, and there is a serious lack of confidence at both ends of supply and demand. At present, it is urgent to control the real estate risk. The high-level meeting made it clear that it is important to deal with the industry risk. To open up the industry liquidity chain, we should take the lead in seeing the recovery of sales, and the restoration of house purchase confidence urgently needs policy support. The relaxation of the policy has been made clear after the high-level statement. We judge that the adjustment time window for the four limit policy in key cities is in the second half of March. The statement on the real estate tax eliminated a major negative factor that suppressed demand during the year.
Wanlian Securities pointed out that under the macro background of “stable growth”, the fundamentals of the current real estate industry continue to bottom, and the marginal improvement policy continues. It is expected that there are still many favorable policies to be expected in the follow-up, and continue to be optimistic about the market performance of the real estate sector. It is suggested to pay attention to (1) property management companies with good fundamental performance; (2) High quality real estate enterprises with financial stability and background of central enterprises / state-owned enterprises; (3) Real estate enterprises with high-quality holding properties or transformation enterprises, or effectively form a virtuous capital cycle of “development +”.
Shenyin Wanguo Securities mentioned that real estate is still the pillar industry of China’s national economy, and the contribution of the industry itself and the industrial chain to GDP accounts for nearly 30%. However, at present, under the multiple regulation and financial difficulties, the impact on the economy may gradually enter the low drag stage. In view of the recent frequent voices of the government emphasizing stabilizing the economy, steady growth and preventing and controlling financial risks, while stabilizing the economy urgently needs to stabilize the real estate, it is expected that the policy repair at both ends of supply and demand of the real estate industry is expected to accelerate, and will promote the optimization of the industry pattern and further enhance the concentration, and the high-quality real estate enterprises are expected to usher in both quantity and quality.
[Theme 2] big finance
Zheshang Securities Co.Ltd(601878) mentioned that on March 16, the financial development and stability Commission of the State Council held a special meeting to release the positive signal of stabilizing growth and market, emphasizing that relevant departments should earnestly assume their responsibilities and coordinate with the financial management department in advance for major policies affecting the market to maintain the stability and consistency of policy expectations. We believe that although the liability side of insurance companies is still under pressure, the expectation of the investment side will be improved, the risk uncertainty will be reduced, and the valuation will be repaired in stages. The current valuation of the insurance sector is low and the safety margin is high, maintaining the “optimistic” rating of the industry.
In addition, BOC International securities mentioned that the deepening reform of the capital market continued to advance, the undervalued value was more firm and bullish on securities companies. The recent decline of securities companies is mainly affected by overseas tightening expectations, the instability of the international situation, and the cooling of the A-share market and public fund market. Despite the emotional fluctuations caused by changes in the external environment, the continued deepening reform of the capital market is good for securities companies in the long run.
The agency further analyzed and continued to recommend the trademarks of leading and financial management characteristic bonds in combination with favorable policies, performance differentiation and long-term growth drivers: 1) the reform of registration system is imminent, improve the marketization level of capital market, and bring more opportunities to head investment banks with strong comprehensive ability and their direct investment and follow-up business. Market fluctuations will lead to significant differentiation of investment business, and the trading mode of head securities companies is expected to bring more stable performance.
2) although market fluctuations may lead to a temporary decline in the scale of public fund management business and consignment business in the wealth management industry chain, residents’ wealth continues to accumulate, the policy of “housing without speculation” is unswerving, and the growth trend of wealth management demand for maintaining and increasing residents’ wealth remains unchanged, which can still bring long-term growth contributions to securities companies.
Northeast Securities Co.Ltd(000686) pointed out that the securities sector adheres to the valuation logic from cycle to growth. With the deepening reform of the capital market, the sector may welcome valuation repair. Recommend Citic Securities Company Limited(600030) , a leading securities firm that goes out of the bear market structure and continues to benefit from the improvement of the capital market environment; Great flexibility in asset management; It is suggested to pay attention to the progress of Beijing Compass Technology Development Co.Ltd(300803) becoming an investor in the bankruptcy reorganization of wechat securities; It is recommended to pay attention to China Securities Co.Ltd(601066) (H shares), and the insurance sector is recommended to pay attention to Ping An Insurance (Group) Company Of China Ltd(601318) .
[Topic 3] digital currency
Ping An Securities pointed out that the digital RMB adopts a two-tier operation mode. Under the premise of central bank centralized management, commercial banks and relevant institutions jointly promote the application pilot. Jingdong, meituan and other companies are leading the Internet industry in the application of digital RMB, mainly due to strong promotion willingness, rich consumption scenarios and large preferential incentives. By the end of 2021, more than 1 million users had used digital RMB in jd.com, with a cumulative consumption of more than 200 million yuan. In terms of consumption scenarios, jd.com and meituan have rich e-commerce and local life application scenarios. In terms of preferential incentives, in addition to the traditional discount coupons, JD became the first company to use digital RMB to pay salaries, and meituan launched digital RMB low-carbon cycling activities.
Compared with Jingdong and the US group, WeChat and Alipay were relatively slow to participate in the trial. They did not use a large number of incentives to encourage consumers to use digital Renminbi.
The agency further analyzed and grasped the digital RMB investment opportunity from two aspects: hardware equipment and software system. At present, the digital RMB is in the initial stage of development, and opportunities and challenges are growing. Hardware manufacturers may benefit from the market opportunities brought by the digital RMB “Hard Wallet”. A major feature of digital RMB is that it supports payment by hardware such as mobile NFC, bracelet and wearable devices. With the improvement of the acceptance of relevant “hard wallets”, relevant digital RMB hardware developers will have the opportunity to obtain more relevant orders and promote the improvement of performance. Software manufacturers may benefit from the business growth brought by the upgrading of the financial system. With the popularity of digital RMB, relevant financial institutions need to upgrade the matching of relevant software systems, or will bring huge demand for system upgrading for relevant software manufacturers.
Shenyin Wanguo Securities believes that more combinations of digital currency, distributed ledger technology and RMB cross-border payment system are expected in the future. It is expected to significantly reduce the time and transaction cost of the current cross-border system. At present, the pilot DCEP is mainly used in Chinese retail scenarios and is not very suitable for cross-border clearing. In the future, the wholesale central bank digital currency supporting cross-border synchronous settlement (PVP) mechanism may be a better technical roadshow.
[theme 4] agriculture, animal husbandry, feeding and fishery
In terms of the seed industry sector, Huaxi Securities Co.Ltd(002926) mentioned that the price of Shenzhen Agricultural Products Group Co.Ltd(000061) such as soybean meal and wheat has reached a 14 year high, and the problem of food security has become more prominent, which further stimulates the improvement of the landscape of the planting industry chain. The “new seed law” passed by China will be implemented from March 1, 2022, which is conducive to strengthening the protection of intellectual property rights in the seed industry and encouraging the innovation and breakthrough of breeding technology in the industry. The Department of agriculture and rural areas of Gansu Province recently issued a notice on the work plan for the supervision of agricultural genetically modified organisms in Gansu Province in 2022, which emphasizes preventing the proliferation of illegal genetically modified crops and promoting the healthy development of the research and application of agricultural genetically modified organisms. With the continuous improvement of industrial policies and the strict supervision of local governments, the application of biological breeding technology will be closer and closer. If the relevant systems of “Document No. 1” are issued smoothly, it will be of great significance for seed industry enterprises that have obtained genetically modified safety certificates in the early stage. Relevant listed companies include Beijing Dabeinong Technology Group Co.Ltd(002385) , Yuan Longping High-Tech Agriculture Co.Ltd(000998) , Shandong Denghai Seeds Co.Ltd(002041) .
In terms of pig breeding sector, the agency further analyzed that the supply of pigs in the market has continued to increase recently, the consumer side has not increased significantly, and it is in a phased oversupply situation. According to the monitoring of the Ministry of agriculture and rural areas, the number of pigs in January 2022 increased by 23.6% year-on-year, and the number of pigs in February increased by 8.2% year-on-year. The pig price is always determined by the relationship between supply and demand. Under the background of the substantial growth of marketing volume, even the frequent industrial macro-control policies have failed to resist the downward trend of pig price. Since 2022, feed prices have been rising, resulting in further increase in breeding costs and farmers falling into double-sided squeeze. In the short term, pig prices continue to fluctuate weakly, but the central government is about to start the third round of frozen pork collection and storage this year, and the downward space of pig prices is expected to be limited. The cold winter of the industry is conducive to accelerating the de industrialization of pig production capacity, and a new cycle is expected to come faster. It is suggested to continue to pay attention to the degree of de industrialization of industry production capacity before the inflection point of the cycle. Relevant listed companies include Muyuan Foods Co.Ltd(002714) , Guangdong Haid Group Co.Limited(002311) .
Guosen Securities Co.Ltd(002736) said he was optimistic about the upward trend of grain price boom in 2022. On the one hand, it is good for the planting and seed sector. On the other hand, the rise of the cost of feed raw materials may accelerate the reversal of the pig price cycle, so it is optimistic about the investment opportunities of the pig sector. Specific targets: 1) planting sector: recommend Jiangsu Provincial Agricultural Reclamation And Development Co.Ltd(601952) , and pay attention to Heilongjiang Agriculture Company Limited(600598) . 2) Relevant Shenzhen Agricultural Products Group Co.Ltd(000061) section: recommend Cofco Sugar Holding Co.Ltd(600737) and pay attention to China Hainan Rubber Industry Group Co.Ltd(601118) . 3) Seed sector: recommended Yuan Longping High-Tech Agriculture Co.Ltd(000998) , Beijing Dabeinong Technology Group Co.Ltd(002385) , Shandong Denghai Seeds Co.Ltd(002041) , etc. 4) Recommendations for pig breeding sector: Zhejiang Huatong Meat Products Co.Ltd(002840) , Fujian Aonong Biological Technology Group Incorporation Limited(603363) , Leshan Giantstar Farming&Husbandry Corporation Limited(603477) , Tecon Biology Co.Ltd(002100) , Dongrui Food Group Co.Ltd(001201) , COFCO Jiakang, Muyuan Foods Co.Ltd(002714) , Wens Foodstuff Group Co.Ltd(300498) , etc.
For the agricultural industry opportunities in 2022, China Galaxy Securities Co.Ltd(601881) Securities pointed out that it firmly recommended the pig cycle. The core point of view is that the best time to explore the bottom of the pig breeding cycle is the time to explore the bottom of the pig breeding cycle. From the perspective of expectation, there will be no worse expectation. The risk of breeding stocks has been released in large quantities, and the safety margin is very high. With the decline of the number of fertile sows and the decline of pig prices again, the production capacity continues to clear, which is good for the industry to meet the dawn. Based on our judgment of the second bottom of 22q2-3, 22q1 is expected to be the second best time point for the layout of breeding stocks.
