Daily theme strategy discussion, summarize the views of the eight securities companies, reveal the current situation of the industry, observe the market trend, and feel the pulse of A-Shares for you in advance.
Zheshang Securities Co.Ltd(601878) : a new perspective of China’s real estate investment cycle
The core of understanding China’s economic cycle is to understand China’s real estate investment cycle. Different from the traditional supply and demand analysis framework, we split the links of land purchase and development, and creatively define the driving factors of real estate investment from the perspective of demand, development and inventory, so as to understand and deduce the real estate cycle more clearly.
We found that: 1) after 2016, “higher sales area base + higher cost” led to a stable increase in the investment amount of construction and installation projects, and the two driving factors of “stable quantity + rising price” were finally reflected in the toughness of real estate investment.
2) in this round of real estate cycle, the residents’ demand policy has been gradually liberalized, but the intensity of liberalization is insufficient; The three most important policy constraints on the development side have not been fully opened, and the financing of developers is still limited. Under the established economic goal of steady growth, there is a lot of room for risk repair in the real estate industry. The degree of relaxation of developer credit, pre-sale fund supervision and residents’ demand side jointly determine the degree of this round of real estate repair.
Shenyin Wanguo Securities: Policy restoration at both ends of supply and demand in the real estate industry is expected to accelerate
Real estate is still the pillar industry of China’s national economy, and the contribution of the industry itself and the industrial chain to GDP accounts for nearly 30%. However, under the current multiple regulation and financial difficulties, the impact on the economy may gradually enter the low drag stage. In view of the recent frequent voices of the government emphasizing stabilizing the economy, steady growth and preventing and controlling financial risks, while stabilizing the economy urgently needs to stabilize the real estate, it is expected that the policy repair at both ends of supply and demand of the real estate industry is expected to accelerate, and will promote the optimization of the industry pattern and further enhance the concentration, and the high-quality real estate enterprises are expected to usher in both quantity and quality. We maintain the “optimistic” rating of the real estate sector. Recommendations: A shares: Poly Developments And Holdings Group Co.Ltd(600048) , Gemdale Corporation(600383) , Xiamen C&D Inc(600153) , Seazen Holdings Co.Ltd(601155) , China Merchants Shekou Industrial Zone Holdings Co.Ltd(001979) , Jinke Property Group Co.Ltd(000656) , China State Construction Engineering Corporation Limited(601668) , China Vanke Co.Ltd(000002) ; H shares: China Resources Land, China overseas development, Longhu group, Xuhui holdings, country garden; And maintain the “optimistic” rating of the property management sector, and recommend: Country Garden service, Xuhui Yongsheng service, China Resources Vientiane, poly property, CNOOC property, New Dazheng Property Group Co.Ltd(002968) , Greentown service, Baolong business and xinchengyue service.
Wanlian Securities: at present, the fundamentals of the real estate industry continue to bottom it is expected that there are still many favorable policies to be expected in the future
Under the macro background of “steady growth”, the fundamentals of the real estate industry continue to bottom, and the marginal improvement policy continues. It is expected that there are still many favorable policies to be expected in the future, and continue to be optimistic about the market performance of the real estate sector. It is suggested to pay attention to (1) property management companies with good fundamental performance; (2) High quality real estate enterprises with financial stability and background of central enterprises / state-owned enterprises; (3) Real estate enterprises with high-quality holding properties or transformation enterprises, or effectively form a virtuous capital cycle of “development +”.
Capital Securities: high level statement releases positive signal! Policy window period approaching real estate sector ushers in deterministic opportunities
The high-level statement releases positive signals and the policy window period is coming. At present, the downward trend of industry fundamentals continues. In the first half of March, the sales area of high-frequency data decreased by 50.1% year-on-year, the de urbanization rate of new opening decreased significantly to 34%, and the de urbanization cycle of key cities increased significantly. Some private real estate enterprises are facing the pressure of debt payment in the short term, and there is a serious lack of confidence at both ends of supply and demand. At present, it is urgent to control the real estate risk. The high-level meeting made it clear that it is important to deal with the industry risk. To open up the industry liquidity chain, we should take the lead in seeing the recovery of sales, and the restoration of house purchase confidence urgently needs policy support. The relaxation of the policy has been made clear after the high-level statement. We judge that the adjustment time window for the four limit policy in key cities is in the second half of March. The statement on the real estate tax eliminated a major negative factor that suppressed demand during the year.
Sufficient policy space, the real estate sector ushered in deterministic opportunities. At present, it is still in the stage of strict historical regulation, with large room for the release of policy tools, the reduction of credit interest rate and the further easing of administrative policies. The subsequent industry fundamentals are expected to usher in recovery with the gradual improvement of policies. At the same time, the senior management clearly proposed the transformation to the new development mode. We believe that the real estate industry is changing from incremental development to stock holding operation and service mode. Continue to be optimistic about the trend market of real estate and property sector, and continue to recommend development categories: China Vanke Co.Ltd(000002) , Poly Developments And Holdings Group Co.Ltd(600048) , Gemdale Corporation(600383) , China Merchants Shekou Industrial Zone Holdings Co.Ltd(001979) , China overseas development; Property management: Country Garden service, poly property, Xuhui Yongsheng service, xinchengyue service.
Shanghai Securities: real estate enterprises with low financing costs and land acquisition advantages may benefit
The credit environment still needs to be improved, the Matthew effect of capital is prominent, and enterprises with low financing cost and land acquisition advantage may benefit. The relevant targets: (1) leading real estate enterprises with low financing cost and can continuously obtain land in first and second tier cities, such as green city China and Longhu group; (2) Real estate enterprises that are less affected by the “two concentration” land policy and have diversified land acquisition methods, such as Seazen Holdings Co.Ltd(601155) , Baolong real estate, etc; (3) Leading enterprises in the property management industry and enterprises that layout high-quality segments of the property management industry, such as country garden service, xinchengyue service, China Resources Vientiane life, Baolong business and Xingsheng business.
Dongxing Securities Corporation Limited(601198) : the advantages of financing will promote high credit real estate enterprises to gain advantages in the land and M & a market
Under the repeated epidemic situation, the sales pressure is further highlighted. Under the impact of shrinking demand and weakening expectation, both sides of supply and demand are facing great impact. The policy goal of “stabilizing land price, house price and expectation” will face great challenges. It is urgent to further strengthen the maintenance of market stability. The healthy and stable market is not only the need to prevent and resolve risks, but also the basis for the transformation of the industry to a new development model.
We believe that the central government’s attitude towards real estate regulation has changed significantly. With the current clear policy tone and encouragement direction, the support of demand side policies is expected to be more accurate and intensive, and the support of financial institutions to both ends of supply and demand is expected to be further strengthened.
The advantage of financing will promote high credit real estate enterprises to gain advantages in the land and M & a market. The continuous land acquisition and promotion ability and high-quality credit endorsement are also expected to seize the opportunity when the demand recovers and further improve the market share.
Recommend Vanke A, Poly Developments And Holdings Group Co.Ltd(600048) , Gemdale Corporation(600383) . The support from the financing side, after meeting the steady central enterprises and real estate enterprises in the head, will gradually overflow to the stable private enterprises, and the market will gradually restore confidence in the stable private enterprises. It is suggested to continue to track the leaders of the stable private real estate enterprises, such as Longhu group and country garden.
Northeast Securities Co.Ltd(000686) : increased opportunities for liquidity improvement of private real estate enterprises outstanding valuation cost performance
The policy relaxation continues to increase, the upward trend of the industry beta remains unchanged, the steady green housing enterprises accelerate the concentration, and the advantages of the leading green housing enterprises in investment and financing appear. At the same time, with the strengthening of pre-sale supervision and credit regulation at this stage, the opportunities for improving the liquidity of private housing enterprises increase, the valuation cost performance is prominent, and the allocation can be moderately lowered to the elastic target of the waist. A shares recommend China Vanke Co.Ltd(000002) , Poly Developments And Holdings Group Co.Ltd(600048) , China Merchants Shekou Industrial Zone Holdings Co.Ltd(001979) Gemdale Corporation(600383) Jinke Property Group Co.Ltd(000656) Hangzhou Binjiang Real Estate Group Co.Ltd(002244) ； H shares recommend Longhu group, China Resources Land, China Overseas Development and Xuhui holding group.
Gf Securities Co.Ltd(000776) : six ministries and commissions jointly stated to stabilize the market strengthen the shareholding confidence in the real estate sector
The six ministries and commissions jointly stated to stabilize the market and strengthen the confidence of sector shareholding. After the Bureau of statistics released the industry data from January to February, multiple ministries and commissions jointly stressed once again the current problems faced by the economy and real estate industry. Stabilizing the total amount and reducing local risks are still the main work contents in 2022. Subsequently, the market values of mainstream real estate enterprises in A-share and H-share rose by 10.6% and 15.6% respectively, but they are still at the 30% quantile level of historical valuation, with large repair space. At present, the industry is still in a negative cycle of capital and credit. Effective breakthroughs need to be made in stabilizing the main body, sales and credit. The logic of improving demand side policies will continue. The stocks of strong credit real estate enterprises have stronger performance growth and cost performance. It is suggested to pay attention to the individual stock investment opportunities of high-quality real estate enterprises. In addition, the current valuation of the property sector is at the lowest range in history. The average performance of property enterprises that have issued yingxihe annual report increased by more than 50% in 2021, and the industry is still growing rapidly. It is recommended to pay attention to the high-quality property enterprises with stable operation of related real estate enterprises.
