Today (March 22), Shanghai and Shenzhen stock markets showed a shock consolidation pattern. The three major indexes opened low in the morning, and the pattern of strong and weak Shanghai in the morning was obvious. In the afternoon, the stock index showed a wave of upward attack, but the rebound was limited. Then the index fell again, and the Shanghai index finally closed red; The gem index and Shenzhen composite index showed weak performance. The gem index fluctuated underwater all day and finally closed in the green market.
In this regard, Guosheng Securities believes that the current market hot spots rotate rapidly, lack of main themes, and the sustainability of the trend of the weight sector is not strong. The OTC incremental funds may still be on the sidelines, and there is great pressure on the short-term upward attack of the index. At the same time, high-level popular stocks are also differentiated, and we should be alert to the negative impact of their decline on the short-term sentiment of the market.
At the same time, AVIC Securities said that from the current situation, the fundamentals of the real estate and consumer sectors will still be at the bottom stage in the short term, but will recover in the follow-up; Investment opportunities such as new infrastructure, old infrastructure, manufacturing, undervalued and high dividends deserve attention. It is suggested to pay attention to investment opportunities in relevant sectors. In addition, investors can participate in the rebound based on medium and long-term fundamental logic, based on growth and patiently layout, including high-profile growth stocks such as semiconductor, photovoltaic and digital economy.
sector:
I. real estate development
Capital Securities said that the high-level statement released positive signals and the policy window period came. At present, the downward trend of industry fundamentals continues. In the first half of March, the sales area of high-frequency data decreased by 50.1% year-on-year, the de urbanization rate of new opening decreased significantly to 34%, and the de urbanization cycle of key cities increased significantly. Some private real estate enterprises are facing the pressure of debt payment in the short term, and there is a serious lack of confidence at both ends of supply and demand. At present, it is urgent to control the real estate risk. The high-level meeting made it clear that it is important to deal with the industry risk. To open up the industry liquidity chain, we should take the lead in seeing the recovery of sales, and the restoration of house purchase confidence urgently needs policy support. The relaxation of the policy has been made clear after the high-level statement. We judge that the adjustment time window for the four limit policy in key cities is in the second half of March. The statement on the real estate tax eliminated a major negative factor that suppressed demand during the year.
Wanlian Securities pointed out that under the macro background of “stable growth”, the fundamentals of the current real estate industry continue to bottom, and the marginal improvement policy continues. It is expected that there are still many favorable policies to be expected in the follow-up, and continue to be optimistic about the market performance of the real estate sector. It is suggested to pay attention to (1) property management companies with good fundamental performance; (2) High quality real estate enterprises with financial stability and background of central enterprises / state-owned enterprises; (3) Real estate enterprises with high-quality holding properties or transformation enterprises, or effectively form a virtuous capital cycle of “development +”.
Shenyin Wanguo Securities mentioned that real estate is still the pillar industry of China’s national economy, and the contribution of the industry itself and the industrial chain to GDP accounts for nearly 30%. However, at present, under the multiple regulation and financial difficulties, the impact on the economy may gradually enter the low drag stage. In view of the recent frequent voices of the government emphasizing stabilizing the economy, steady growth and preventing and controlling financial risks, while stabilizing the economy urgently needs to stabilize the real estate, it is expected that the policy repair at both ends of supply and demand of the real estate industry is expected to accelerate, and will promote the optimization of the industry pattern and further enhance the concentration, and the high-quality real estate enterprises are expected to usher in both quantity and quality.
The agency further analyzed and maintained the “optimistic” rating of the real estate sector. Recommendations: A shares: Poly Developments And Holdings Group Co.Ltd(600048) , Gemdale Corporation(600383) , Xiamen C&D Inc(600153) , Seazen Holdings Co.Ltd(601155) , China Merchants Shekou Industrial Zone Holdings Co.Ltd(001979) , Jinke Property Group Co.Ltd(000656) , China State Construction Engineering Corporation Limited(601668) , China Vanke Co.Ltd(000002) ; H shares: China Resources Land, China overseas development, Longhu group, Xuhui holdings, country garden; And maintain the “optimistic” rating of the property management sector, and recommend: Country Garden service, Xuhui Yongsheng service, China Resources Vientiane, poly property, CNOOC property, New Dazheng Property Group Co.Ltd(002968) , Greentown service, Baolong business and xinchengyue service.
II, oil and gas equipment service
China Greatwall Securities Co.Ltd(002939) pointed out that the marginal increase in total PPI in February was mainly caused by the rise of energy industries such as oil and natural gas exploitation, power and heat supply, and gas production and supply, mainly due to the rise of upstream cost of power. On the one hand, the sharp rise in international commodity prices has increased the imported inflationary pressure on China’s industrial prices. On the other hand, the epidemic is not over yet. Due to the interruption of the supply chain caused by the epidemic, the recovery of the supply side is still unstable.
Shengang Securities said that it is expected that the mismatch between supply and demand in the crude oil market will be strengthened in 2022 to promote the prosperity of the petroleum and petrochemical sector: it is suggested to pay attention to the following subjects: 1) oil service sector: China Oilfield Services Limited(601808) , Offshore Oil Engineering Co.Ltd(600583) , Sinopec Oilfield Service Corporation(600871) , Bomesc Offshore Engineering Company Limited(603727) ; 2) Private refining and chemical sector: Hengli Petrochemical Co.Ltd(600346) , Rongsheng Petro Chemical Co.Ltd(002493) , Jiangsu Eastern Shenghong Co.Ltd(000301) , Tongkun Group Co.Ltd(601233) , Hengyi Petrochemical Co.Ltd(000703) .
Everbright Securities Company Limited(601788) also mentioned that the geopolitical situation is tense and the global crude oil supply and demand pattern is tight. We expect that the oil price will remain high and continue to be firmly optimistic about the prosperity of the petrochemical sector. It is suggested to pay attention to the following subscripts: first, the upstream sector, PetroChina, Sinopec, CNOOC, Enn Natural Gas Co.Ltd(600803) , Zhongman Petroleum And Natural Gas Group Corp.Ltd(603619) ; Second, oil service sector, China Oilfield Services Limited(601808) , Offshore Oil Engineering Co.Ltd(600583) , Cnooc Energy Technology & Services Limited(600968) , Sinopec Oilfield Service Corporation(600871) , Bomesc Offshore Engineering Company Limited(603727) ; Third, large private refining and chemical sector, Hengli Petrochemical Co.Ltd(600346) , Rongsheng Petro Chemical Co.Ltd(002493) , Jiangsu Eastern Shenghong Co.Ltd(000301) , Hengyi Petrochemical Co.Ltd(000703) , Tongkun Group Co.Ltd(601233) ; Fourth, light hydrocarbon cracking sector, satellite chemistry and Oriental Energy Co.Ltd(002221) ; Fifth, coal to olefin, Ningxia Baofeng Energy Group Co.Ltd(600989) ; The sixth and third largest chemical white horse, Wanhua Chemical Group Co.Ltd(600309) , Shandong Hualu-Hengsheng Chemical Co.Ltd(600426) and Jiangsu Yangnong Chemical Co.Ltd(600486) .
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