In February, the business volume growth of China’s leading express enterprises exceeded expectations.
Recently, the A-share listed companies Yunda Holding Co.Ltd(002120) ( Yunda Holding Co.Ltd(002120) . SZ), Yto Express Group Co.Ltd(600233) ( Yto Express Group Co.Ltd(600233) . SH), Sto Express Co.Ltd(002468) ( Sto Express Co.Ltd(002468) . SH) and S.F.Holding Co.Ltd(002352) ( S.F.Holding Co.Ltd(002352) . SZ) in the “Tongda system” successively released the express operation data in February.
Among them, the express business revenue and business completion of “Tongda Department” exceeded expectations, with a year-on-year increase of about 80% S.F.Holding Co.Ltd(002352) 2 month’s business volume fell year-on-year, which means that part of the market share is being eroded.
Considering the wrong date of the Spring Festival, from the business volume in the two months from January to February, the business volume and unit price of “Tongda system” and S.F.Holding Co.Ltd(002352) have increased year-on-year. However, in contrast, the growth performance of the two business indicators of “Tongda system” is significantly better than that of S.F.Holding Co.Ltd(002352) .
e-commerce components promote the business volume of “Tongda system”
For the “access system” with e-commerce parts as its core business, the performance in the first two months of this year was brilliant.
On the one hand, the “price war” of express companies has been further strengthened, and the revenue has been further increased. On the other hand, the “Spring Festival does not close” mode launched by various express companies helped the express industry in the off-season in February, and the business situation was significantly improved.
According to the statistics released by the Ministry of Commerce, from January to February this year, China’s new consumption developed rapidly, and the online retail sales of physical goods increased by 12.3% year-on-year.
Affected by the increase of online consumption, the business volume of “Tongda” express company increased significantly in the same period.
According to the business data, in February, the express business volume of Yunda Holding Co.Ltd(002120) , Yto Express Group Co.Ltd(600233) , Sto Express Co.Ltd(002468) and Sto Express Co.Ltd(002468) was 1.216 billion, 967 million and 723 million respectively, with a year-on-year increase of 73.47%, 82.83% and 85.59%; The business revenue was 2.85 billion yuan, 2.577 billion yuan and 1.869 billion yuan respectively, with a year-on-year increase of 88.12%, 87.05% and 76.29%.
After the “price war” eased, the price repair of major express companies was on track, and the revenue situation improved.
In terms of single ticket revenue, the single ticket revenue of Yto Express Group Co.Ltd(600233) , Yunda Holding Co.Ltd(002120) , Sto Express Co.Ltd(002468) and Sto Express Co.Ltd(002468) were 2.66 yuan, 2.34 yuan and 2.59 yuan respectively, with year-on-year changes of 2.3%, 8.3% and – 4.8% respectively.
It is worth mentioning that at the end of 2021, the settlement method of “Tongda” express and rookie wrapping business was adjusted from settlement with franchisees to settlement with the company, resulting in a slight increase in the unit price of express. If the above effects are excluded, the unit prices of Yuantong and Sto Express Co.Ltd(002468) are 2.60 yuan and 2.44 yuan respectively.
At the same time, combined with the operating data in January, the overall growth rate of the business volume of “Tongda Department” in the first two months of this year is considerable. Among them, Sto Express Co.Ltd(002468) the growth rate of business volume in the first two months was 38.9%, taking the lead Yunda Holding Co.Ltd(002120) , Yto Express Group Co.Ltd(600233) followed closely with the growth rate of business volume of 30.7% and 27.8%.
In fact, the market logic of “business flow determines logistics” still takes effect. Take Yto Express Group Co.Ltd(600233) as an example, “the main business benefiting from the upstream tiktok and the consumption of live goods and goods, the continuous growth of the industry is more favorable to the higher head Market Express.” When analyzing the business volume performance of the company, China Post Securities believes that.
In addition, the “Spring Festival non closing” mode collectively launched by express enterprises this year has brought a positive effect on the overall growth of express business.
According to the statistics of the State Post Office, from January to February this year, the business volume of express service enterprises across the country totaled 15.69 billion, a year-on-year increase of 19.6%; Business income totaled 157.43 billion yuan, a year-on-year increase of 13.8%.
During the Spring Festival from January 31 to February 6 this year, the national postal express industry received and delivered 749 million express packages, an increase of 16% over the same period of the lunar calendar last year. From the Spring Festival transportation on January 17 to February 6, the national postal express industry received 3.89 billion express packages, an increase of 34.1% over the same period of the lunar calendar last year; 4.46 billion express parcels were delivered, an increase of 36.94%.
Zheshang Securities Co.Ltd(601878) believes that from January to February 2022, excluding the influence factors of the wrong date of the Spring Festival, the growth is still considerable. The driving force of China’s e-commerce online shopping is still, with the superposition of express sinking (regional sinking and unit value sinking) and steady progress of express going to sea. The express order volume of the express industry is expected to continue to maintain a relatively high growth in the next two years.
leading enterprises usher in a new pattern of competition
The 21st Century Business Herald reporter noted that in February, the business volume of S.F.Holding Co.Ltd(002352) in February showed negative growth, and the growth rate of the company’s total business from January to February was only 2%.
According to the operating data of February disclosed by S.F.Holding Co.Ltd(002352) disclosure, the revenue of the company’s express logistics business in that month was 9.849 billion yuan, a year-on-year decrease of 3.36%; The business volume reached 638 million tickets, a year-on-year decrease of 8.33%; The single ticket revenue of express logistics business was 15.44 yuan, a year-on-year increase of 5.46%.
The growth rate of business volume was lower than expected, indicating that S.F.Holding Co.Ltd(002352) ‘s market share was eroded by other express delivery enterprises this month. According to the statistics of 21st Century Business Herald reporter, in February, Yto Express Group Co.Ltd(600233) , Yunda Holding Co.Ltd(002120) , Sto Express Co.Ltd(002468) , S.F.Holding Co.Ltd(002352) had 14%, 17.6%, 10.5% and 9.2% market shares respectively. Compared with January, “Tongda system” increased year-on-year, while Shunfeng decreased year-on-year.
S.F.Holding Co.Ltd(002352) low growth rate is behind or related to the operation adjustment of the company. The Research Report of Anxin transportation pointed out that S.F.Holding Co.Ltd(002352) adjusted the product structure and reduced the number of low gross profit products. For example, a large number of preferential products have been withdrawn, which was affected by a large base in the same period last year, and the epidemic situation in some regions has also been affected.
However, improving the competitiveness of comprehensive logistics is still the label of S.F.Holding Co.Ltd(002352) leading other express delivery enterprises.
On March 19, a B757200 full cargo aircraft of SF Airlines landed at Ezhou Huahu International Airport, marking the completion of the field verification and test flight of Ezhou airport. It is reported that Ezhou Huahu airport is the first professional freight hub airport in Asia and the fourth in the world. It is expected to open in June this year.
After completion and operation, it will help consolidate SF’s core barriers and build a long-term competitive advantage, and help further open the downward space of single ticket cost by improving transportation capacity and efficiency.
At the same time, under the surge of M & A in the express industry, the competitive pattern of the express industry is undergoing great changes.
“From January to February, the growth rate of business volume of the ‘Tongda system’ led the market. In addition to the strong demand of e-commerce, the leading enterprises may enjoy the volume overflow brought by the optimization of the industry pattern.” Anxin transportation believes that.
At the end of 2021, Jitu express acquired the Chinese business of Baishi express, and exchanged the transaction consideration of 6.8 billion yuan for the market share of 7% to 8% of Taobao interface and Baishi express. The initial stage of the merger and acquisition of the two franchise express companies is not a simple addition of market share. In the integration of grass-roots outlets, the spilled customers will further flow into the head express enterprises and bring new growth points to the leading enterprises.
In addition, the penetration of regulatory factors still has a profound impact on the process of industry competition.
“At present, the express delivery market is dominated by regulatory logic, from high-speed growth to high-quality development.” China International Capital Corporation Limited(601995) recently released research report pointed out that at present, the main “Tongda” express companies are expected to benefit from the continued interpretation of regulatory logic, and the profit repair is uncertain.
The 21st Century Business Herald reporter noted that the regulations on the promotion of express delivery in Zhejiang Province has officially entered into force on March 1, 2022. Article 36 of the regulations emphasizes that “express delivery enterprises shall not provide express services at a price lower than the cost price without justified reasons.” This is the “policy bottom” to ensure the sound development of the express industry.
“In the future, the strategy of express delivery enterprises will focus on three aspects: market share of traditional e-commerce express delivery, customer clustering and product stratification, and new business expansion.” China International Capital Corporation Limited(601995) indicates.
