on march 21, the National Energy Administration released the statistical data of national power industry from January to February. Among them, by the end of February, the installed capacity of Cecep Solar Energy Co.Ltd(000591) power generation in China was about 320 million KW, an increase of 22.7% year-on-year
While the installed capacity of Cecep Solar Energy Co.Ltd(000591) power generation in China continues to expand, all links of the photovoltaic industry chain are also accelerating the expansion of production.
"In the context of the vigorous development of renewable energy, with the release of silicon expansion capacity and the decline of prices in all links of the industrial chain, the installed capacity of photovoltaic is expected to increase significantly in 2022." Liu Jimao, founder of Hongda photovoltaic, said in an interview with the reporter of Securities Daily that with the expansion of production capacity in all links, the backward production capacity of the photovoltaic industry will be eliminated rapidly.
demand drives the whole industrial chain to expand production
"In 2021, more than 140 countries and regions in the world have proposed carbon neutralization targets. Affected by the epidemic, under the condition of high prices in the photovoltaic industry chain, the installation demand has not been fully released, but the global photovoltaic new installation still reaches 170gw." According to Liu Jimao, from January to February this year, China's photovoltaic new grid connection reached 10.86gw, a year-on-year increase of 234%, and the module export reached 6.59 billion yuan, a year-on-year increase of 110% , showing a good momentum.
according to the data released by the National Energy Administration on March 21, from January to February, the investment in power supply projects of major power generation enterprises in China was 47.1 billion yuan, a year-on-year decrease of 1.9%. However, it is worth noting that Cecep Solar Energy Co.Ltd(000591) power generation investment was 9.4 billion yuan, a year-on-year increase of 153.7%
in the process of increasing the installed scale of Cecep Solar Energy Co.Ltd(000591) in the photovoltaic industry, each subdivided industrial chain is also accelerating the expansion of production recently of which, Longi Green Energy Technology Co.Ltd(601012) will invest 19.5 billion yuan in Inner Mongolia to invest in the construction of 20GW annual single crystal silicon rod and chip project, 30GW high-efficiency single crystal cell project and 5GW high-efficiency photovoltaic module project Ja Solar Technology Co.Ltd(002459) will invest 10 billion yuan in the next six years to develop and build a "green photovoltaic new energy base" in Qujing City, Yunnan Province Hoshine Silicon Industry Co.Ltd(603260) will also invest 17.5 billion yuan to build the "silicon based new material industry integration project of Xinjiang central Hoshine Silicon Industry Co.Ltd(603260) Co., Ltd. Silicon Industry Co., Ltd. (200000 tons of high-purity polysilicon project per year)" Jolywood (Suzhou) Sunwatt Co.Ltd(300393) it is proposed to invest 14 billion yuan to build a project with an annual output of 200000 tons of industrial silicon and 100000 tons of high-purity polysilicon. In addition, Tongwei Co.Ltd(600438) , Tbea Co.Ltd(600089) etc. have their own production expansion plans.
With regard to the investment of nearly 20 billion yuan in Inner Mongolia, Longi Green Energy Technology Co.Ltd(601012) relevant person in charge said in an interview with the reporter of Securities Daily that carbon neutralization is the general direction of global energy development. Under the condition that the long-term energy development policy is very clear, with the continuous progress of photovoltaic technology and the continuous release of new capacity of upstream raw materials, "as the middle reaches of the industrial chain, expanding production is more facing the hot downstream market."
the upstream of photovoltaic industry is also being upgraded and expanded. As the main supplier of silicon chip leading diamond lines such as Longi Green Energy Technology Co.Ltd(601012) , Jingke energy, Jingao Cecep Solar Energy Co.Ltd(000591) , poly GCL, Yangling Metron New Material Co.Ltd(300861) also announced the upgrading and capacity expansion plan recently
"Driven by downstream demand, the company further improves its production capacity through the transformation of '12 lines of single machine'. It is expected to complete the technical transformation by the end of June this year, and the production capacity of single machine is expected to increase by 33% compared with that before the transformation." Yangling Metron New Material Co.Ltd(300861) Secretary of the board of directors and chief financial officer Zhou Xiang told the reporter of Securities Daily that the company's Fulong Industrial Park is also stepping up the construction of production expansion, and will apply the mature "Twelve line" technology to the new production line.
accelerate the elimination of backward production capacity
" in fact, starting from 2021, the production capacity of various PV module industry chains, including silicon materials, silicon wafers, cells and modules, has increased several times after several rounds of expansion. " Liu Jimao said that the increase of production capacity can not only reduce costs, but also promote enterprises to increase technological innovation.
Will the rapid expansion of production capacity in various industrial chains of photovoltaic industry lead to industrial overcapacity? " only from the perspective of production capacity, the production capacity of various industrial chains of Chinese enterprises has exceeded 2-3 times the world's predicted maximum photovoltaic installation volume, and overcapacity is inevitable. " Liu Jimao said, "based on the general optimistic prospect of photovoltaic, all links of photovoltaic module industry chain have greatly expanded production capacity. In the second half of the year, with the release of new silicon material production capacity, silicon material will enter the stage of overcapacity, and the price will drop sharply."
However, Qi Haiyu, President of Beijing Teyi Sunshine New Energy Technology Co., Ltd., said in an interview with the reporter of Securities Daily that the global installed capacity of photovoltaic is likely to exceed the prediction of many institutions before, and then reach 270gw-280gw, and the risk of overcapacity is relatively controllable. " this year, there are some excess risks in the silicon link, but due to geopolitical and other factors, the price of traditional fossil energy soared, the energy security crisis sounded the alarm again, and the global demand for renewable energy also rose, which is also good for the photovoltaic industry. "
"As for the capacity of silicon wafers, batteries and components, the phenomenon of excess has always existed, but it belongs to 'structural overcapacity'." Qi Haiyu also said that the photovoltaic industry is characterized by the pursuit of the lowest kwh cost, which comes from the latest industrial investment, and only backward and inefficient production capacity is eliminated.
Liu Jimao also pointed out that the photovoltaic industry is an industry with rapid technological development, and there will be no excess of advanced production capacity. "The market will only eliminate backward production capacity such as silicon wafers below 166. Excess production capacity can accelerate the production process of advanced technologies such as granular silicon, large-size silicon wafers, hjt, perovskite and other new technologies, and promote the healthy development of the photovoltaic industry."
