The scope of moderately relaxing the credit policy of the real estate market is expanding. Following the cancellation of “recognizing both houses and loans” in Zhengzhou, many cities began to join the “camp” to reduce the proportion of loans for the first house.
On March 21, according to the financial Associated Press, the self-discipline mechanism of market interest rate pricing in Guangxi Zhuang Autonomous Region held a meeting and agreed to reduce the down payment ratio of housing loans in some cities: for those who already own a house in Nanning, the minimum down payment ratio of commercial loans for re purchasing ordinary commercial housing was adjusted from 40% to 30%, and the minimum down payment ratio of commercial loans for first purchasing ordinary commercial housing in Beihai and Fangchenggang was adjusted from 25% to 20%.
According to the statistics of Zhongyuan Real Estate Research Center, up to now, about 20 cities have issued different policies to reduce down payment. In addition, cities that reduce the loan interest rate of the first house are also accelerating capacity expansion. For the new round of down payment and interest rate reduction in the real estate market, Li Yujia, chief researcher of Guangdong housing policy research center, believes that this is the performance of the further improvement of differentiated housing credit policy, and the counter cyclical adjustment of credit policy is to achieve the stability of the real estate market.
“reducing down payment” City camp expansion
“For a provincial capital city like Nanning, the population has a strong adsorption capacity to the whole province. When reducing the down payment ratio of housing loans, we should do something and do nothing. We should maintain the proportion of 30%, rather than 20%, which lies in the combination of support and stability. We should take into account the impact of reducing leverage on other cities in the province and consider the spillover effect and impact on expectations. At the same time, it can not lead to another obvious rebound in the property market in the later stage.” Li Yujia told the Securities Daily that for the third and fourth tier cities, considering the population outflow, housing ownership rate and income level, even if the down payment is reduced to 20% and the overall environment remains unchanged (mainly the monetary environment), it will not significantly change the trend of the local real estate market.
“The reduction of the down payment ratio in Nanning and other cities is undoubtedly to inject confidence into the property market again. After all, the recent improvement of the property market is not significant. At the same time, it has been rebounded by the epidemic, so the further support of the policy is particularly important.” Guan Rongxue, an analyst at Zhuge housing search data research center, told the Securities Daily that the relaxation of the credit environment in Guangxi was decided by a meeting held by the market interest rate pricing self-discipline mechanism. Compared with the previous opening-up of some cities only by individual banks and other institutions, it is more pragmatic to boost market confidence. At the same time, it can also slow down the skepticism of home buyers.
It is worth mentioning that this camp has been expanding since Zhengzhou became the 16th city to reduce the down payment in 2022. “The country has more underground adjustment of the down payment ratio, which not only releases the signal of slight deregulation in the property market, but also releases the signal of diversified policy adjustment paths to a certain extent.” Guan Rongxue said that the subsequent down payment reduction team is expected to further grow.
In addition to reducing the down payment ratio of housing loans, reducing the interest rate is also one of the main means to moderately relax the credit policy. The purpose is to “protect the rigid housing demand and meet the reasonable improvement housing demand” as set by the Ministry of housing and urban rural development in 2022 At the same time, it will also reduce the pressure on urban inventory and promote the overall economic development of the city.
the interest rate of the first house loan in more than 100 cities fell
On March 21, the data released by the shell Research Institute showed that the interest rates of the first set of housing loans and the second set of housing loans in 103 key cities monitored in March 2022 were 5.34% and 5.60%, down 13 and 15 basis points respectively from the previous month; The average lending cycle in March was 34 days, 4 days shorter than that of the previous month.
According to the shell Research Institute, the mortgage interest rate fell in March, the largest monthly decline since 2019. The decline of mortgage interest rate in March was 4 and 6 basis points higher than that of the previous month. The current interest rate is close to the level of the third quarter of 2020. Among the 103 cities, the mainstream mortgage interest rates in 82 cities have been reduced. Among them, the first set of interest rates in Chengdu has been reduced by 69 basis points this month, with the largest correction range. The second set of mortgage interest rates have been reduced by 34 basis points, including 20 cities such as Suzhou, Shenzhen and Shanghai. The mainstream first set of mortgage interest rates are less than 5%, and the first set of interest rate in Suzhou is 4.65%, which is the lowest among key cities.
In addition, according to the data of Shell Research Institute, since March (March 1-March 17), the daily average trading volume of second-hand houses in 50 cities across the country has increased by about 17% compared with the daily average trading level in February (after the Spring Festival), and the weekly house price index has remained stable; The supply and demand activity of the second-hand housing market has also increased. Since March, the number of new customers and new listing houses of second-hand housing in 50 cities have increased compared with the daily average level in February (after spring).
In this regard, Xu Xiaole, chief market analyst of Shell Research Institute, believes that the credit environment and demand side support policies have brought about the repair of the market since this year, but the new medium and long-term loans of residents showed a negative value in February, indicating that the confidence of the demand side has not been completely repaired. Since March, the repeated outbreaks in some cities have also brought uncertainty to the market. It is expected that the further transmission and effectiveness of local supporting policies will promote the repair of the market.
(Editor: Qiao Chuanchuan)
