Lithium resources have attracted much attention from the market, but the trend of commodities and stock prices deviated significantly.
The "invisible hand" is repeatedly pushing up the price of lithium carbonate to "outrageous".
Due to the continuous demand for new energy vehicles, the prices of Tesla, Byd Company Limited(002594) , Xiaopeng, Nezha and other new energy vehicles have increased one after another.
In order to ensure the supply and price of lithium resource products and promote the healthy development of new energy vehicles and power battery industry, the Ministry of industry and information technology recently held a symposium, inviting upstream and downstream enterprises in the lithium battery industry chain. The meeting focused on the bottleneck of lithium supply and exchanged views on the recent sharp rise in lithium prices.
The mismatch between supply and demand is the main reason for the rise in lithium carbonate prices. Insiders pointed out that the symposium held by the Ministry of industry and information technology means that speculation such as purchasing and hoarding goods for speculative purposes may not be ruled out in the market. At present, nearly 80% of the supply of lithium resources comes from overseas, and the pricing power is not in China. Hyping lithium carbonate is harmful to the long-term healthy development of the industrial chain.
Since September last year, lithium stocks have experienced a correction of about six months. While lithium carbonate commodities continued to rise sharply during the year, individual stocks still did not get out of the trend rebound. The divergence of market expectations for the future market of lithium resources company may be an important factor leading to the significant deviation between the trend of commodities and stock price.
vehicle enterprise procurement Contemporary Amperex Technology Co.Limited(300750) battery cost increased by 20000 yuan
Since 2021, the prices of upstream raw materials of lithium batteries such as cobalt and lithium have risen sharply, and the pressure on the lithium battery link is obvious. According to the data of Shanghai Nonferrous Metals network, as of March 21, 2022, the average price of battery grade lithium carbonate was 503000 yuan / ton, up 867.3% from 52000 yuan / ton on December 31, 2020.
It is understood that in the demand for lithium salt, lithium battery accounts for the largest proportion, accounting for about 70%, of which lithium carbonate and lithium hydroxide as cathode materials are the core demand.
At present, the price rise of lithium carbonate has been transmitted to head battery manufacturers, such as Contemporary Amperex Technology Co.Limited(300750) ( Contemporary Amperex Technology Co.Limited(300750) . SZ). Recently, the relevant person in charge of a new energy vehicle enterprise told the first finance and economics reporter that the battery cost has risen sharply. Since the second half of last year, the price of Contemporary Amperex Technology Co.Limited(300750) power battery has increased twice. According to the battery cost of a new energy vehicle, it increased by 10000 yuan last time and 10000 yuan not long ago.
"We can't bear the rising prices of raw materials such as batteries. In recent months, the prices of our new energy vehicles have quietly increased twice." Said the relevant person in charge of the above new energy vehicle enterprises.
Since then, Contemporary Amperex Technology Co.Limited(300750) responded to the media that due to the sharp rise in the price of upstream raw materials, the company dynamically adjusted the price of some battery products accordingly.
It is difficult for vehicle brands to bear the heavy cost, and they have raised the price of relevant models one after another.
Following the first round of collective price increases in early 2022, new energy vehicle enterprises have recently started the second round of price increases. Xiaopeng automobile, Weima automobile, Zero run automobile, Nezha automobile, Byd Company Limited(002594) , Tesla, etc. recently announced price increases for some models. At present, nearly 20 new energy vehicle enterprises have announced price increases, ranging from 1000 yuan to tens of thousands of yuan.
On March 19, ideal car CEO Li Xiang said through social media that the increase in battery costs in the second quarter was very unreasonable. At present, the brands that have contracted with battery manufacturers to determine the price increase range of batteries in the second quarter have basically announced the price increase immediately. Most of the brands that have not yet increased their prices have not yet been negotiated, and they will generally increase their prices immediately after negotiation.
On March 21, maverick electric announced that affected by the sharp rise in the prices of raw materials such as upstream lithium batteries, maverick Electric will raise the retail guidance price of all lithium battery products by 200 ~ 1000 yuan on April 1, 2022, subject to the release at that time.
tight supply and demand drives the price rise of lithium carbonate
From the performance of the secondary market, the market seems to interpret the vehicle price rise as a short-term good. On March 21, the lithium battery industry chain showed strong performance throughout the day, with Contemporary Amperex Technology Co.Limited(300750) up 1.86% and Byd Company Limited(002594) up more than 6% at one time Ganfeng Lithium Co.Ltd(002460) ( Ganfeng Lithium Co.Ltd(002460) . SZ), Qinghai Salt Lake Industry Co.Ltd(000792) ( Qinghai Salt Lake Industry Co.Ltd(000792) . SZ), Zhejiang Huayou Cobalt Co.Ltd(603799) ( Zhejiang Huayou Cobalt Co.Ltd(603799) . SH), etc. rose simultaneously.
Is the increase in the price of complete vehicles really good? The person in charge of a secondary supplier of a new energy vehicle manufacturer told the first financial reporter that the battery and vehicle manufacturers have delivery pressure, and the price rise of models will not increase the profits of the vehicle manufacturer. "For auto enterprises, in order to ease the cost pressure on the lithium battery end, the price increase of models is a helpless measure to avoid a situation in which sales are much better off, but this' double-edged sword 'may cause fluctuations in auto sales." He told reporters.
It should be noted that nearly 80% of the lithium resource supply comes from overseas, and the pricing power is not in China. Compared with other lithium battery materials such as diaphragm and negative electrode materials, lithium resources with a development cycle of 3-5 years are difficult to accelerate the breakthrough of the supply bottleneck. The development momentum of downstream new energy vehicles is booming, resulting in the intensification of the contradiction between supply and demand, and the lithium price center dominated by the mismatch between supply and demand continues to be high.
As for whether there is speculation in the market, the person in charge of the above-mentioned supplier believes that the lithium salt inventory in the whole industrial chain has been at a low level. It is expected that the lithium price is expected to fluctuate at a high level in the next two years, and there is little room for hoarding. "Large factories usually lock in long orders to ensure the operation of the supply chain. The rigidity of downstream demand and strong certainty of high growth are obvious. Although it does not rule out the existence of small-scale procurement and hoarding for speculative purposes, traders dare not hoard goods rashly under high lithium prices." He told reporters.
According to a report released by Minmetals securities, the sources of supply increment in the next year are too concentrated, and the formation of effective supply still needs a processing cycle to enter the market, but the downstream goods preparation and procurement are often carried out in advance. Coupled with the capacity expansion of midstream batteries and material links, the procurement demand of the industrial chain will be significantly higher than the installation demand of the terminal at a certain stage.
commodities rose and share prices fell, and the market still has differences on lithium stocks
On March 21, the lithium battery industry chain rebounded in an all-round way. The share price of Zhejiang Yongtai Technology Co .Ltd(002326) ( Zhejiang Yongtai Technology Co .Ltd(002326) . SZ) was closed to 34 yuan, and 70% of the shares in the sector were red. But before that, the price rise of lithium carbonate commodities deviated significantly from the stock price trend of individual stocks: on the one hand, the price of lithium carbonate continued to soar, and on the other hand, the lithium battery sector, which enjoyed the "valuation dividend" last year, made a sharp correction.
Data show that since March, all 14 stocks in the lithium sector have recorded declines, led by Tibet Mineral Development Co.Ltd(000762) , Suzhou Ta&A Ultra Clean Technology Co.Ltd(300390) and other sectors. Two leading lithium carbonate stocks Tianqi Lithium Corporation(002466) ( Tianqi Lithium Corporation(002466) . SZ) and Ganfeng Lithium Co.Ltd(002460) fell 15.26% and 14.15% respectively.
This is due to the sharp correction of the whole lithium battery sector. Since January 1, the average and median price range of 79 lithium battery stocks have been - 14.03%, - 15.56% respectively, and the callback range of battery and material manufacturers such as Zhejiang Yongtai Technology Co .Ltd(002326) , Gotion High-Tech Co.Ltd(002074) ( Gotion High-Tech Co.Ltd(002074) . SZ), Eve Energy Co.Ltd(300014) ( Eve Energy Co.Ltd(300014) . SZ), Sunwoda Electronic Co.Ltd(300207) ( Sunwoda Electronic Co.Ltd(300207) . SZ), Shenzhen Capchem Technology.Ltd(300037) ( Shenzhen Capchem Technology.Ltd(300037) . SZ) has exceeded 20%.
In fact, since September last year, lithium stocks have been adjusted. In six months, most lithium stocks have almost halved, and almost no stocks have rebounded out of the trend. No matter how the price of lithium carbonate soared, the share price of lithium mining stocks remained unchanged.
It is rare for commodity prices to deviate from the stock prices of listed companies. Taking the third quarter of 2017 to the end of 2018 as an example, the price of lithium carbonate increased by about 7%, and the shares of Ganfeng Lithium Co.Ltd(002460) and Tianqi Lithium Corporation(002466) fell by 28% and 35% respectively. At that time, there was a long bottom grinding process in the price of lithium carbonate, which once put Tianqi Lithium Corporation(002466) under great operating pressure.
From the disclosed operation from January to February, the head lithium mine still maintained high-speed growth in performance. According to the announcement, Tianqi Lithium Corporation(002466) it is estimated that the operating revenue of lithium concentrate of the company will increase by about 366% year-on-year from January to February.
Ganfeng Lithium Co.Ltd(002460) it is estimated that the net profit attributable to the parent company from January to February will increase by 10 times year-on-year. The company said that from January to February, the product price further increased, the sales volume increased year-on-year, and the operating revenue is expected to be about 3.6 billion yuan, with a year-on-year increase of about 260%; The net profit attributable to the parent company was about 1.4 billion yuan, with a year-on-year increase of about 300%.
According to a new energy analyst, there are differences in the market's long-term expectations for lithium stocks, that is, whether the price surge can be sustained and how much impact it will have on the performance of listed companies if it cannot be sustained. At the same time, lithium battery manufacturers conduct cost pressure downward through price rise, and their profitability is expected to improve.
A number of industry insiders said in an interview with reporters that the price of lithium carbonate has become calm after two months of sharp rise. With the increase of supply, the price may fall in the second quarter, and the rising market may usher in an inflection point.
"The cost pressure brought by the high lithium price to the downstream enterprises and the market's concern about the reverse phagocytosis of terminal demand are the core reasons for the correction of the share price of lithium mining stocks in this round. It is expected that the production capacity will be released in the second and third quarters, and the lithium carbonate price will gradually be slightly corrected. The adjustment range still needs to be paid attention to, the pressure on the midstream manufacturers or decrease, and the improvement of profitability is worth looking forward to." "For OEMs, they have to bear the pressure and finally transfer to end consumers through price increases," the analyst said
