Recently, a number of large photovoltaic investment projects have surfaced Ja Solar Technology Co.Ltd(002459) plans to invest in photovoltaic cells, modules and new energy power station projects in Qujing, Yunnan, with a total investment of about 10 billion yuan Longi Green Energy Technology Co.Ltd(601012) plans to invest 19.5 billion yuan in the construction of monocrystalline silicon rods, batteries, components and other projects in Inner Mongolia Eerduosi Resources Co.Ltd(600295) Inner Mongolia; Xinte energy plans to build a polysilicon project with an annual output of 200000 tons in Changji, Xinjiang, with a total investment of 17.6 billion yuan.
Similar 10 billion yuan photovoltaic project investment has long been common. From 2020 to 2021, the main role of industry expansion is silicon wafers. Since the end of 2021, the expansion of silicon production has been in full swing. However, after the production capacity of each manufacturing link is implemented, it still faces the uncertainty of market supply and demand. In contrast, the "shovel seller" of photovoltaic core equipment such as reduction furnace, single crystal furnace and hjt production line has been the first to taste the dividend of industry expansion.
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silicon wafer expansion drives the demand of single crystal furnace
There is no doubt that silicon wafer is one of the main links of photovoltaic expansion in recent two years, among which the core equipment of rod pulling process is single crystal furnace.
According to the data obtained by the reporter from relevant equipment enterprises, taking the latest 1600 single crystal furnace as an example, the silicon wafer capacity corresponding to each 1000 equipment is about 12gw. According to the estimation of the organization, the investment of single crystal furnace corresponding to 1GW silicon wafer is about 140 million yuan.
According to the data of industry institutions, the production capacity of silicon wafers has reached about 330gw, and more than 100gw of high-purity large-size silicon wafers are expected to be added. China Photovoltaic Industry Association said that the proportion of large-size silicon wafers (182mm + 210mm) was 4.5% in 2020, increased to 45% in 2021 and is expected to increase to 75% this year.
The potential scale of silicon wafer expansion provides space for new equipment and equipment renewal requirements. The signing of listed companies also reflects this trend. In early March, Shuangliang Eco-Energy Systems Co.Ltd(600481) signed a sales contract with Zhejiang Jingsheng Mechanical & Electrical Co.Ltd(300316) to purchase Czochralski single crystal furnace, which will be applied to the company's large-size single crystal silicon wafer project. The scope of supply includes all equipment, technical data, etc., and the contract amount is 809 million yuan.
The reporter noted that in May last year, Shuangliang Eco-Energy Systems Co.Ltd(600481) and Zhejiang Jingsheng Mechanical & Electrical Co.Ltd(300316) also signed a sales contract for Czochralski single crystal furnace, with a contract amount of 1.4 billion yuan and a delivery date from October to December 2021; In November last year, the two sides adjusted the contract in May. The total purchase amount increased from 1.4 billion yuan to 2.24 billion yuan, and the delivery date was extended to may 2022.
According to the calculation of the organization, in November last year, the corresponding capacity of Shuangliang Eco-Energy Systems Co.Ltd(600481) locked single crystal furnace equipment has been increased from 10GW to 16GW Shuangliang Eco-Energy Systems Co.Ltd(600481) said in recent research that the annual capacity of 20GW will be realized as soon as possible this year; By 2023, the annual production capacity of 40gw + will be realized, reflecting the scale advantage of the company.
From the perspective of equipment suppliers, the signing of Zhejiang Jingsheng Mechanical & Electrical Co.Ltd(300316) and Shuangliang Eco-Energy Systems Co.Ltd(600481) is only the tip of the iceberg. In August last year, Zhejiang Jingsheng Mechanical & Electrical Co.Ltd(300316) signed a contract with Ningxia central to sell fully automatic crystal growth furnace equipment to Ningxia central, with a contract amount of 6.083 billion yuan; Last March, GCL also purchased crystal growth and silicon rod processing equipment from Zhejiang Jingsheng Mechanical & Electrical Co.Ltd(300316) company. In addition, in March, may and October last year, Qinghai Gaojing successively purchased single crystal furnace and supporting equipment from Zhejiang Jingsheng Mechanical & Electrical Co.Ltd(300316) for three times, with a total contract amount of 2.76 billion yuan.
Earlier, Zhejiang Jingsheng Mechanical & Electrical Co.Ltd(300316) disclosed a performance express that in 2021, the company achieved a revenue of 5.96 billion yuan and a net profit of 1.72 billion yuan, with a year-on-year increase of 56.44% and 100.23% respectively. One of the reasons for the performance change is that benefiting from the active promotion of production expansion by downstream silicon wafer manufacturers, the company continued to improve the equipment delivery capacity, and the order volume and revenue scale increased significantly.
In addition to Zhejiang Jingsheng Mechanical & Electrical Co.Ltd(300316) , Liancheng CNC and Beijing Jingyuntong Technology Co.Ltd(601908) , which have the supply capacity of single crystal furnace equipment. At the beginning of March, Shuangliang Eco-Energy Systems Co.Ltd(600481) also announced that it would purchase Czochralski single crystal furnace from Liancheng kaikesi, a wholly-owned subsidiary of Liancheng CNC, involving an amount of 620 million yuan. In May last year, Shuangliang Eco-Energy Systems Co.Ltd(600481) also purchased 846 million yuan Czochralski single crystal furnace from Liancheng kaikesi. In addition, in February this year, Beijing Jingyuntong Technology Co.Ltd(601908) announced that it would sell flexible shaft automatic single crystal furnace and single crystal growth control system to Qujing Jingao, with a total amount of 540 million yuan.
From the perspective of the supplier pattern of the main single crystal furnace, Zhejiang Jingsheng Mechanical & Electrical Co.Ltd(300316) has the strongest independence and obtains the most downstream orders; Liancheng CNC focuses on supplying related party Longi Green Energy Technology Co.Ltd(601012) , which ranks first in silicon wafer production capacity in the industry Beijing Jingyuntong Technology Co.Ltd(601908) after expanding the silicon wafer business, the positioning of the single crystal furnace business has also shifted to meet its own use first.
A single crystal furnace supplier told reporters that only a handful of manufacturers can supply single crystal furnaces in the market. If single crystal furnace suppliers are directly or indirectly engaged in silicon wafer business, they will form a competitive relationship with other silicon wafer manufacturers, who will also have a choice when determining who to purchase single crystal furnaces from; Conversely, single crystal furnace suppliers directly or indirectly involved in the silicon wafer business believe that they have mastered the key technologies of manufacturing equipment, so they are reluctant to share these technologies with other silicon wafer manufacturers.
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reduction furnace market attracts new players
As mentioned above, silicon material has been connected, and silicon wafer has become a new hot spot of photovoltaic expansion. According to incomplete statistics, as of March this year, a total of 18 enterprises have announced their production expansion plans. The total scale of silicon material exceeds 3.1 million tons, the investment amount reaches 100 billion yuan, and the construction period ranges from 2 to 5 years. Specific projects include Xinte energy plans to invest and build 200000 tons of polysilicon capacity in Changji, Xinjiang, Jolywood (Suzhou) Sunwatt Co.Ltd(300393) plans to invest and build 100000 tons of capacity in Taiyuan, Shanxi, Wuxi Shangji Automation Co.Ltd(603185) plans to invest and build 100000 tons of capacity in Baotou, Inner Mongolia, etc.
The core equipment of the silicon material project is the polysilicon reduction furnace. In February this year, Shuangliang Eco-Energy Systems Co.Ltd(600481) signed several reduction furnace sales contracts at one go. First, on February 8, Shuangliang Eco-Energy Systems Co.Ltd(600481) holding subsidiary signed two multi rod reduction furnace equipment contracts with Hoshine Silicon Industry Co.Ltd(603260) and Dongfang hope subsidiaries, with a total amount of about 744 million yuan; Subsequently, on February 14, it signed a contract with Gansu Guazhou Baofeng silicon material development Co., Ltd., involving multi pair rod reduction furnace equipment and corresponding spare parts and special tools, with an amount of 260 million yuan.
the data provided by Shuangliang Eco-Energy Systems Co.Ltd(600481) people to reporters shows that the market share of the company's reduction furnace is more than 65%. According to the statement made by Shuangliang Eco-Energy Systems Co.Ltd(600481) in the investigation, the number of polysilicon reduction furnaces (taking 42 pairs of rod reduction furnaces as an example) corresponding to the capacity of 10000 tons of silicon is about 15-17 sets, and the corresponding value is about 50 million yuan; If a reduction furnace is equipped with a set of skids, the value of polysilicon reduction furnace system corresponding to 10000 tons of silicon material capacity will be about 80 million yuan.
The reporter noted that last year, Shuangliang Eco-Energy Systems Co.Ltd(600481) polysilicon reduction furnace and related products achieved a revenue of 979 million yuan, a year-on-year increase of 453.6%, and the gross profit margin also increased by 5.81 percentage points to 38.53% Shuangliang Eco-Energy Systems Co.Ltd(600481) said that the market share of the company's reduction furnace has ranked first in China for a long time. At present, new and old polysilicon players have thrown out plans to put into operation and expand production. Driven by the "carbon neutralization" clean energy substitution policy of photovoltaic in the future, the demand for polysilicon reduction furnace as the core production equipment of silicon material in the upstream of photovoltaic will continue to grow.
According to the above silicon material expansion scale and unit investment cost data, the market scale of polysilicon reduction furnace can be roughly estimated. In addition to Shuangliang Eco-Energy Systems Co.Ltd(600481) , Shanghai Sensong and Ruiji Getai under Zhenjiang Dongfang Electric Heating Technology Co.Ltd(300217) are other manufacturers that can provide reduction furnace equipment in China. Of course, the reduction furnace market has also attracted new entrants, such as Lanzhou Ls Heavy Equipment Co.Ltd(603169) .
At the beginning of February, the 60000t / a electronic polysilicon reduction furnace of Qinghai Asia silicon industry 60000t / a project developed by Lanzhou Ls Heavy Equipment Co.Ltd(603169) was completed and shipped. Before that, the company also completed the cold hydrogenation reactor and heat exchanger equipment of the project, thus becoming one of the few suppliers to realize complete set production of polysilicon equipment in the Chinese market. The company has obtained orders for polycrystalline silicon projects such as Asian silicon industry and Oriental hope, and said that it will strengthen its efforts to explore the polycrystalline silicon market and improve its market share in the field of photovoltaic polycrystalline silicon core equipment.
A reduction furnace supplier told reporters that the reduction furnace has a certain technical threshold in terms of equipment, technology and materials, but the production capacity will not be subject to too many restrictions, "There are no problems with personnel, plant and equipment, which can meet the needs of customers in time; we don't have only one reduction furnace workshop, but also other workshops and workers can be scheduled. If there are many reduction furnace orders and production is tight, these resources can be flexibly arranged."
Reduction furnace and single crystal furnace, as the core production equipment in the upstream link of photovoltaic, benefit from the logic of industry expansion. However, due to the different production expansion cycles of silicon materials and silicon wafers, the market demand release rhythm faced by these two types of equipment is also different. For example, the production expansion cycle of silicon materials is long, and the planned projects will be released in succession in the next 2-5 years, making the demand release of equipment more smooth.
In contrast, a single crystal furnace supplier expressed its concerns to reporters, "The service life of single crystal furnace is relatively long, and more furnaces have been added in the past two years. However, if the current vigorous production expansion cycle is passed, the demand for single crystal furnace will not be so large. From our previous experience, if there is a new type of single crystal furnace, it will also stimulate the demand for renewal, but at present, 1600 single crystal furnace is the most advanced, and it will take a long time to switch to the next generation of single crystal furnace."
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hjt, TOPCON battery equipment frequent bidding
Not long ago, Longi Green Energy Technology Co.Ltd(601012) announced a 19.5 billion yuan production expansion plan, involving 20GW monocrystalline silicon rod and chip project, 30GW high-efficiency monocrystalline cell project and 5GW high-efficiency photovoltaic module project. The investment is expected to be 7.6 billion yuan, 10.3 billion yuan and 1.6 billion yuan respectively. Among them, the battery project is the highlight and is also regarded as Longji making up for its own shortcomings.
According to the data of the third quarter of last year, Longi Green Energy Technology Co.Ltd(601012) own battery capacity is 37.3gw and its own components are 57.7gw. The company's own battery and component capacity do not match, and the annual gap of battery capacity is 20.4gw
Tianfeng Securities Co.Ltd(601162) pointed out that the unit investment of Longi Green Energy Technology Co.Ltd(601012) this battery expansion is 343 million yuan, and the investment is expected to be mainly used for the purchase, installation and commissioning of production and process equipment. The agency believes that the production expansion route of 30GW has not been clear, but Longji has made great progress in the fields of IBC, hjt (heterojunction) and TOPCON. The production expansion is expected to focus on the new battery route.
In fact, the demand for battery equipment has also increased greatly. Different from the situation of reduction furnace and single crystal furnace, the technical route of photovoltaic cells is ushering in a period of change, and the battery manufacturing equipment has higher requirements for new technologies. Hjt, TOPCON and other battery equipment are the focus of photovoltaic cell manufacturers' procurement.
The reporter noted that in February this year, Sany group successively issued 14 bidding announcements for photovoltaic equipment, including single crystal furnace, slicer, screen printing equipment, etc. In terms of the project name, the bidding equipment of Sany group will be applied to the single crystal trial production line of Sany photovoltaic project and the trial production line of Sany TOPCON photovoltaic cell.
In addition, Gcl System Integration Technology Co.Ltd(002506) earlier issued an announcement on the change of raised investment projects, and it is planned to use part of the raised funds for the 10GW high-efficiency TOPCON photovoltaic cell production base (phase I 5GW) project of Leshan Gcl System Integration Technology Co.Ltd(002506) Technology Co., Ltd.
In addition to the new amount of battery manufacturing equipment, its unit investment is also high. The reporter learned from the industrial chain that at present, the investment of 1gwhjt equipment is about 400 million yuan to 450 million yuan, which is much higher than the investment of 200 million yuan of perc equipment of the same scale.
Although some organizations predict that the cost of hjt equipment will be reduced rapidly in 2022 and 2023, a person from a leading enterprise told reporters that if all the core components of hjt equipment are replaced by domestic products, it is possible to reduce the cost of 1gwhjt equipment to 300 million yuan, but it is still difficult to reduce it to 200 million yuan equivalent to the current mainstream perc equipment.
Suzhou Maxwell Technologies Co.Ltd(300751) said in a recent survey that the rise in commodity prices this year has led to an increase in the cost of aluminum and steel parts; A large number of standard parts share parts with semiconductor equipment, resulting in rising costs. Therefore, the cost reduction of hjt whole line equipment this year is not optimistic. In addition, Suzhou Maxwell Technologies Co.Ltd(300751) it is estimated that the overall heterojunction market expansion plan will be in the scale of 20-30gw in 2022.
According to the data predicted by China Photovoltaic Industry Association, the proportion of n-type batteries (hjt and TOPCON) is expected to increase from 3% to 13.4% this year. The production capacity of TOPCON battery is expected to exceed 35gw and hjt is expected to exceed 13GW by the end of 2022 It can be seen that the increase in the proportion of new photovoltaic cells will also drive the demand growth of corresponding equipment.
Suzhou Maxwell Technologies Co.Ltd(300751) said that the company's hjt equipment capacity is currently in an overload state, and the company meets the customer's order requirements by renting a new plant. The company's 85 mu land in phase I of the raised investment project has obtained the construction license, and the construction unit has entered the construction site. It is expected to be put into operation at the end of this year and the beginning of next year. The company said that last year's hjt orders were very good, and this year's hjt orders will be better.
The reporter learned that, similar to the technical update of battery equipment, the component link is also facing the equipment update brought by technical iteration, and the iteration cycle has been shortened to about 2 years. The key to the technical update of subsequent series welding machines lies in the continuous infiltration of large size, the demand for silicon wafer thinning brought by hjt and high-precision series welding Soochow Securities Co.Ltd(601555) believes that the market space of series welding machine is expected to double.
Since this year, Wuxi Autowell Technology Co.Ltd(688516) has issued three bid winning announcements for products purchased by Ja Solar Technology Co.Ltd(002459) and Jingke energy, involving products including high-speed scribe welding integrated machine, non-destructive laser scriber, silicon wafer sorter, multi main grid scribe welding combined machine, etc. the total bid winning amount disclosed is about 340 million yuan.
