This year is not a question of whether prices will rise or not. It is a question of who can survive after rising prices.
On the afternoon of March 17, a few hours before the new round of oil price rise, Wang Qiang (a pseudonym) spent more than 400 yuan to fill up the fuel tank and planned to replace the next 10 kilometers of commute with electric bicycles; On March 19, Cheng Ming (pseudonym) added 200 yuan of No. 95 gasoline as usual and found that the pointer on the oil gauge was three less scales than before
The rise in oil prices has led to an increase in the vehicle cost of fuel vehicle owners. The ridicule of “92 full of debt, 95 full of property, and 98 full of three-generation repayment” has filled the social platform, and also persuaded many fuel vehicle holders to “defecte” to join the pure electric vehicle camp.
However, the reality is very skinny. The rising price of raw materials makes it difficult for electric vehicles to survive alone. Within a week or so, a number of new energy vehicle enterprises, including Tesla, Byd Company Limited(002594) , Xiaopeng, Weima, Zero run and Euler, have to raise prices, and some have raised prices twice or even three times.
Behind the game between affordable and unaffordable fuel vehicles and affordable and unaffordable electric vehicles, the high cost caused by chip shortage and rising raw material prices is like a butterfly flapping its wings, stirring up a pool of “ripples” in the automobile market.
one week, nine new energy vehicle enterprises officially announced price increases
According to the incomplete statistics of the 21st Century Business Herald reporter, in less than a week from March 15 to 20, there have been 9 car companies successively raising prices, including Tesla, Byd Company Limited(002594) , Chery new energy, Xiaopeng automobile, Nezha automobile, Zero run automobile, geometry automobile, Weima automobile and Great Wall Euler. Among them, many car companies have raised prices twice or even three times, with a maximum increase of more than 30000 yuan.
On March 17, a screenshot of the price rise of all Xiaopeng cars was circulated on the Internet. The screenshot showed that “the price of all models of No. 21 increased, P7 increased by 20000, and P5 and g3i increased by 10000. Starting today, everyone stopped taking a rest and made every effort to invite customers. They can only be notified by telephone, and it is not allowed to notify customers in written form or send a circle of friends.”
At that time, the relevant person in charge of Xiaopeng automobile said that “there is no relevant information at present”, but a Xiaopeng automobile salesperson in Guangzhou told the 21st century economic report that “it is true”.
Less than a day later, on March 18, the official of Xiaopeng automobile announced that the price of its products would be increased from 10100 yuan to 20000 yuan before subsidies, and the price adjustment would take effect from 0:00 on March 21. Today (March 21), the new selling prices of three models of Xiaopeng automobile P7, P5 and g3i were released. The price increase after subsidy was 1010032600 yuan, of which the prices of 670e and 670e + of Xiaopeng P7 increased by more than 30000 yuan.
On the same day as Xiaopeng automobile, geometric automobile and Zero run automobile joined the price increase army. The price of some products of the former will be increased by 3 Jiangnan Mould & Plastic Technology Co.Ltd(000700) 0 yuan, while the latter will mainly adjust the price of Zero run C11. The price of Zero run C11 luxury and exclusive models will increase by 20000 yuan respectively, while the price of performance models will increase by 30000 yuan, becoming the new energy model with the highest single increase.
“There is no change in the price adjustment Zero run T03, but it is likely to increase the price later. If you want to buy it as soon as possible.” A salesperson told the 21st Century Business Herald reporter.
According to the data, since March, nearly 20 new energy vehicle enterprises have announced price increases, involving more than 40 models of new car manufacturers, Chinese brands, joint venture brands and imported brands, with price increases ranging from 1% to 10%. Among them, Tesla has the highest price increase frequency, with three price increases in 8 days.
In addition, Byd Company Limited(002594) (up 3 Jointo Energy Investment Co.Ltd.Hebei(000600) 0 yuan, the same below), Nezha automobile ( Dingli Corp.Ltd(300050) 00 yuan), Weima automobile (70 Lingyi Itech (Guangdong) Company(002600) 0 yuan) and Chery new energy (3 Jointo Energy Investment Co.Ltd.Hebei(000600) 0 yuan) have raised the prices of some of their models to varying degrees.
According to the price adjustment details displayed by Chery new energy salesperson 1 to reporters, except that the price of 120km pudding has not changed, the price of the other two models has increased by 3100 yuan, and the adjusted guidance price is 299047000 yuan; The price of Chery’s small ants has been raised by 3 Shenyang Machine Tool Co.Ltd(000410) 0 yuan, and the adjusted price is 6990089000 yuan.
It is worth noting that Euler cat (including GT version), which raised the price once in early March, once again officially announced the price increase. After the price subsidy of all models of 2022 Euler cat (including GT version), the comprehensive guidance price increased by 6 Jiangnan Mould & Plastic Technology Co.Ltd(000700) 0 yuan, and the price has increased by about 20000 yuan compared with 2021 models.
In fact, at present, in addition to the above-mentioned auto enterprises that have announced price adjustment, many auto enterprises are “ready to move”.
The 21st Century Business Herald reporter learned from the salesperson of several car companies that the price of 2021 Volkswagen id.3 will not rise and there are cash and cash concessions, but the price of 2022 will rise and there are no existing cars; The price of all models of Jihu increased, and the salesperson of Jihu revealed that it would increase by 5400 yuan; Weilai automobile, ideal automobile and Gaohe automobile will not raise prices.
industrial chain cost increase
The 21st Century Business Herald reporter noted that the rise of new energy vehicle enterprises is a new round of price rise boom after the collective price rise in January 2022. The price rise models are mainly concentrated in the range of more than 100000 yuan. Compared with the price increase in January, which was attributed to “the impact of the decline of new energy subsidies”, many auto enterprises emphasized the factor of “sharp rise in raw material prices” in the price increase explanation.
“In the middle of 2021, the production and sales scale of Shanxi Guoxin Energy Corporation Limited(600617) automobile showed rapid growth. In 2022, the whole industry set a high sales target of 5 million vehicles, boosting the pursuit of upstream raw materials.” On March 21, Chen Shihua, Deputy Secretary General of China Automobile Industry Association, said in an interview with the reporter of the 21st Century Business Herald, “the rising price of raw materials has led to greater cost pressure on power battery enterprises, which is further transmitted to the production and sales of complete vehicles, resulting in the price adjustment of main engine manufacturers one after another.”
In fact, since last year, the rise in raw material prices has stirred up the sensitive nerves of the upstream and downstream automobile industry chain. The price of raw materials in the upstream further rises, and the pressure of the industrial chain is transmitted to the downstream. Taking the power battery, the core component of new energy vehicles, as an example, the latest average price of lithium carbonate, an important raw material, last week reached about 48000522000 yuan / ton, while at the beginning of January last year, the price of this raw material was still about 62 Infotmic Co.Ltd(000670) 00 yuan / ton.
In addition, the prices of nickel and cobalt, the key metal resources of power batteries, have also increased significantly. From early January 2020 to mid January 2022, the price of battery grade cobalt has increased by 119%. Affected by the conflict between Russia and Ukraine, the price of nickel soared. According to the financial report of China Central Television, due to the change of nickel sulfate price, the price of ternary material has increased by 16 Shenzhen Tellus Holding Co.Ltd(000025) 0000 yuan per ton. Accordingly, the price of ternary lithium battery has increased by 31-47 yuan per kWh. Taking 70kwh electric vehicle as an example, the recent increase of battery cost of an electric vehicle has reached 20003300 yuan.
Tianfeng securities also made a calculation. When the nickel price is $50000 / ton, the single vehicle cost of model 3 (76.8 KWH) will rise by 10500 yuan, Xiaopeng P7 (80.87 KWH) will rise by 11000 yuan, and Weilai ec6 (70 KWH) will rise by 9500 yuan. The single vehicle cost of these three models will rise by about 10000 yuan. If the nickel price reaches US $100000 / ton, the single vehicle cost of model 3 will rise by nearly 28000 yuan, Xiaopeng P7 will rise by nearly 30000 yuan, and Weilai ec6 will rise by more than 25000 yuan.
Under the pressure of supply chain costs, some hot-selling models have to suspend orders, especially micro cars with weak bargaining power. The most typical ones are the Great Wall Euler black cat and white cat. According to Dong Yudong, CEO of Euler brand, after the sharp rise in raw material prices in 2022, black cat lost more than 10000 yuan per unit. In addition, the 21st Century Business Herald previously learned that the minimum matching version of Wuling Hongguang Mini ev (priced at 28800) will no longer accept new orders. The salesperson said “it’s not clear” when to produce the car.
Chen Shihua believes that the current rise in raw material prices has been divorced from the level of supply and demand changes, and there are important factors of artificial speculation. Cui Dongshu, Secretary General of the all China Federation of riders, said that the rise in the price of raw materials for new energy vehicles is a cyclical behavior, and the general increase in vehicle prices is also a reflection of the rise in the price of raw materials.
In addition to the pressure on power batteries and car enterprises caused by the rise of raw material prices, the current lack of core phenomenon is not optimistic. A number of people in the automotive industry said that the current chip shortage is still serious. The chip supply in the fourth quarter of 2021 was alleviated compared with the third quarter, but there was no significant relief compared with the fourth quarter.
At the same time, the impact of the conflict between Russia and Ukraine has exacerbated the global chip shortage. It is reported that the two Ukrainian neon suppliers, which currently account for about half of the global neon production, have interrupted production, and neon is the key raw material for manufacturing chips. In addition, the March 16 earthquake in Japan may further aggravate the shortage of chip supply, and the factories of many well-known chip manufacturers such as Renesas electronics and Sony are affected.
“At present, global automobile enterprises are facing great pressure of core shortage. On the one hand, the production capacity of global chip resources is limited and it is not easy to improve the production capacity; on the other hand, emergencies such as earthquakes will further aggravate the shortage of chips. In addition, with the gradual improvement of epidemic prevention and control in foreign countries, the demand for chips by foreign enterprises increases, exacerbating the tension of chip supply in China.” Chen Shihua pointed out.
Xu Daquan, executive vice president of Bosch (China) Investment Co., Ltd., pointed out in an interview with the reporter of 21st Century Business Herald that the supply of chips in 2022 is still very tight, which will certainly not meet all the needs of the host plant, and this year’s automobile output will be largely subject to the supply of chips. “Now there is a certain inflation in the world, the price of raw materials has increased greatly, and the price of chips has also increased significantly. Therefore, the automobile industry as a whole is in a state of ‘sharp increase in cost’, and the supply chain has been discussing the response plan together.”
Insiders of a car company told the 21st Century Business Herald reporter: “the rise in the price of raw materials and the shortage of chips have had a certain impact on the production and operation. We coordinate chip resources in various ways, promote the development of cost reduction, and give priority to ensuring the production capacity and supply of hot-selling models.”
the impact of price increase on the new energy market is relatively controllable
In the face of the price boom, Zhu Yulong, an expert in the automotive industry, said that this year is not a question of whether prices will rise or not, but who can survive after rising prices. “The price rise has led to the decline of orders and sales, but the lack of batteries, the lack of supply and the situation of being eliminated in an all-round way. At present, it seems that the capital reserve of automobile enterprises is a great challenge. The development window of emerging pure electric vehicle enterprises is about to close.”
In fact, for new energy vehicle enterprises, increasing the market share is their short-term goal. Although the price increase of vehicle enterprises is lower than the cost increase, and the price increase strategy also lags behind the cost increase, under the wave of general rise of new energy vehicles, the price increase may become the choice of more vehicle enterprises. Industry insiders pointed out that if the price of raw materials remains high in the short term and does not fall back, more and more automobile enterprises will join the ranks of price increases in the future.
It is worth mentioning that the dual pressure of rising raw material prices and chip shortage, as well as the huge demand on the market side, have delayed the pace of car companies delivering new cars. According to Tesla China’s official website, if you order Tesla related models now, you are expected to pick up the car at least in June. The delivery date of model 3 is expected to be 16-20 weeks and that of model y is expected to be 10-20 weeks.
“Due to the large number of orders and the tight supply chain, the delivery time of the 500km endurance version of the AIAN V Plus takes two to three months, and the delivery time of the 600 and 700km endurance versions takes five to six months longer.” A salesperson from GAC ea’an told reporters.
A salesperson of Xiaopeng said that the delivery time of the 480km range version of Xiaopeng P7 changed from 7-8 weeks to 10-11 weeks, and the 670km range version takes longer.
The Byd Company Limited(002594) dm-i model, which is hot on the market, is also difficult to find. Both Qin plus DM-I and song plus DM-I models need 3-4 months to collect the car, and the delivery cycle of Tang DM-I needs at least 1-2 months.
However, the industry believes that the impact of cost pressures such as declining subsidies for new energy vehicles and rising resource prices on the new energy market is still relatively controllable. If the subsequent raw material prices return to the normal price range, the whole vehicle price of new energy vehicles will also decline to a certain extent, but the specific time is unknown.
“The rising price of new energy vehicles will damage consumers’ purchase enthusiasm in the short term, but the diversified market of Shanxi Guoxin Energy Corporation Limited(600617) vehicles will offset this adverse phenomenon.” Cui Dongshu said that with the recovery of the supply environment at the end of the raw material industry, the adverse factors of price rise will also be alleviated to a certain extent. The phenomenon of price rise in the terminal sales market caused by the rise of new energy raw materials should be viewed objectively and rationally. It is estimated that it may return to the normal price range in the second half of this year.
Chen Shihua believes that “at present, the national level has begun to attach great importance to the problem of rising raw material prices. The Ministry of industry and information technology, together with the national development and Reform Commission, the State Administration of market supervision and other departments, has carried out an investigation. In the next step, it will crack down on unfair competition such as hoarding goods and driving up prices, so as to ensure the stability of supply and prices in the new energy vehicle industry.”
At the same time, he is optimistic about the goal of producing and selling 5 million vehicles in Shanxi Guoxin Energy Corporation Limited(600617) automobile market in the middle of 2022. “Although this goal has a higher growth than that in 2021, the absolute volume is not very large. At present, auto enterprises have accelerated the transformation to new energy vehicles and have found a way.”
Guotai Junan Securities Co.Ltd(601211) Securities pointed out in the research report that under the background of the continuous high demand for terminal new energy, with the gradual easing of the supply of automobile chips at the supply end, the successive launch of heavy models of traditional automobile enterprises and new forces, and the further improvement of the driving experience of new energy under the background of intelligence, it is expected that the sales volume of Shanxi Guoxin Energy Corporation Limited(600617) vehicles is still expected to reach 5.5 million in the middle of 2022, continuing to maintain an increase of more than 50%.
