Plate review
Last week’s performance: from March 14 to March 18, most of Shenwan class industries fell, among which public utilities and steel fell the most, with declines of 4.14% and 4.62% respectively; Real estate and non bank finance maintained an increase of 1.98% and 1.68% respectively; Power equipment fell slightly, down 0.15%.
The top ten stocks of the new energy sector that saw the new energy sector last week last week last week last week are among the top ten stocks of the new energy sector that saw the new energy sector last week last week. The top ten stocks of the new energy sector rising in the new energy sector in the new energy sector last week last week last week. The top ten stocks of the new energy sector last week are: Geovis Technology Co.Ltd(688568) 85 Shenzhen Hymson Laser Intelligent Equipments Co.Ltd(688559) \ (14.56%), ideal car (13.22%), Ningbo Ronbay New Energy Technology Co.Ltd(688005) (12.40%). The top ten stocks that fall in the top ten of the list of stocks with the first ten stocks that fall in the top ten of the decline are: Han’S Laser Technology Industry Group Co.Ltd(002008) (- 12.60%), Jolywood (Suzhou) Sunwatt Co.Ltd(300393) (- 16.34%), Titan Wind Energy (Suzhou) Co.Ltd(002531) (- 16.41%).
Core viewpoints and investment suggestions of new energy vehicles
On March 16 and March 17, 2022, the Department of raw materials industry and the first Department of equipment industry of the Ministry of industry and information technology, together with the price department of the development and Reform Commission and the price supervision and inspection and Anti Unfair Competition Bureau of the State Administration of market supervision, organized a symposium on the operation of the lithium industry. The meeting required that enterprises upstream and downstream of the industrial chain should strengthen the connection between supply and demand, work together to form a long-term and stable strategic cooperative relationship, and jointly guide the rational return of lithium salt prices, Strengthen efforts to ensure market supply and better support the healthy development of strategic emerging industries such as Shanxi Guoxin Energy Corporation Limited(600617) automobile. According to the disclosure of China Securities Journal, the way to ensure supply and stabilize price:
1) the raw material factory can sell lithium salt directly to end customers to reduce circulation links and control the price difference between lithium carbonate factory and factory; 2) We can strengthen the development of lithium resources in China and increase market supply. Since 2022, the contradiction between the supply and demand of raw materials upstream of power batteries has been difficult to alleviate in the short term, and the cost pressure of new energy vehicle enterprises has been increasing. Since March, nearly 20 new energy vehicle enterprises have announced price increases, involving nearly 40 models, ranging from 5000 yuan to 20000 yuan. From the perspective of the supply and demand pattern of lithium salt, it is expected that the supply of lithium salt will increase significantly by 26% in March with the end of maintenance. According to the outlook, the supply of lithium salt is expected to increase by 26% in March.
Demand side: the overall demand for lithium carbonate increased slightly, with a growth rate of only 4%. According to SMM, the supply-demand gap is also expected to reverse from 1939 tons in March to 70 tons in April. With the support of fundamentals, the Ministry of processing and information technology publicly announced the severe crackdown on hoarding and the relevant measures to ensure the supply and stable price of lithium resources. The price of lithium carbonate may stabilize from March to April, or it is expected to promote the profitability of lithium batteries and complete vehicles in the middle and lower reaches.
Under the current trend of automobile globalization and electrification, the global sales of new energy vehicles are still expected to maintain a rapid growth trend. There are still structural opportunities in the new energy vehicle sector in 2022, and the short-term adjustment may provide a buying opportunity. According to the prediction of the China Travel Association, the global sales volume of new energy vehicles is expected to reach 10 million vehicles in 2022, and China Shipbuilding Industry Group Power Co.Ltd(600482) battery industry chain, as a participant occupying the main share in the world, will fully benefit. Lithium battery industry chain: it is suggested to focus on leading companies with high self-sufficiency rate in the lithium resources sector, including: Ganfeng Lithium Co.Ltd(002460) , Tianqi Lithium Corporation(002466) , Jiangxi Special Electric Motor Co.Ltd(002176) , Yongxing Special Materials Technology Co.Ltd(002756) , Sinomine Resource Group Co.Ltd(002738) . With the continuous rise in the prices of raw materials such as lithium ore in the upstream and the improvement in the demand for new energy vehicles in the downstream, the price of power batteries may rise in 2022, and battery enterprises are expected to usher in profitable repair. The relevant targets are: Contemporary Amperex Technology Co.Limited(300750) , Eve Energy Co.Ltd(300014) , Gotion High-Tech Co.Ltd(002074) , Farasis Energy (Gan Zhou) Co.Ltd(688567) , Sunwoda Electronic Co.Ltd(300207) , Zhuhai Cosmx Battery Co.Ltd(688772) , Guangzhou Great Power Energy&Technology Co.Ltd(300438) . It is suggested that the lithium battery material industry chain should pay attention to the enterprises with strong bargaining power, integrated layout and overseas expansion of new customers: the cathode material should pay attention to the lithium iron phosphate and high nickel ternary leaders, and the relevant targets include: Shenzhen Dynanonic Co.Ltd(300769) , Beijing Easpring Material Technology Co.Ltd(300073) , Ningbo Ronbay New Energy Technology Co.Ltd(688005) ; Objects related to negative electrode materials: Shanghai Putailai New Energy Technology Co.Ltd(603659) , beiteri, Ningbo Shanshan Co.Ltd(600884) ; Electrolyte related targets: Guangzhou Tinci Materials Technology Co.Ltd(002709) , Shenzhen Capchem Technology.Ltd(300037) , Shandong Shida Shenghua Chemical Group Company Limite(603026) ; Related objects of diaphragm: Yunnan Energy New Material Co.Ltd(002812) , Shenzhen Senior Technology Material Co.Ltd(300568) ; Related targets of lithium battery accessories: Guangdong Jiayuan Technology Co.Ltd(688388) , Nuode Investment Co.Ltd(600110) . In the field of lithium battery recycling, in the context of the upcoming retirement tide of the power battery recycling industry, it is suggested to pay attention to the enterprises with the advantages of first mover and integration in the fields of power battery recycling and manufacturing, standby power and charge and discharge, and the relevant targets include: Gem Co.Ltd(002340) , Miracle Automation Engineering Co.Ltd(002009) , Contemporary Amperex Technology Co.Limited(300750) , Zhejiang Huayou Cobalt Co.Ltd(603799) , Guangdong Guanghua Sci-Tech Co.Ltd(002741) . Related targets of new energy vehicle sector include: traditional vehicle enterprises Byd Company Limited(002594) , Great Wall Motor Company Limited(601633) , Guangzhou Automobile Group Co.Ltd(601238) , new power vehicle enterprises Weilai automobile, ideal automobile and Xiaopeng automobile.
Core viewpoints and investment suggestions of photovoltaic and wind power
On March 17, the 1 million kW wind power base project of Huadian Urumqi was officially put into operation. This is also the first multi-functional clean energy base integrating “wind energy, photovoltaic, thermal power and energy storage” in Xinjiang. The total installed capacity of the project is 1 million KW, with a total investment of about 6.5 billion yuan. The “photovoltaic +” scheme is adopted in the photovoltaic project to realize the integrated development of new energy and ecology. After the completion of the project, 2.5 billion kwh of “green power” will be added every year, 830000 tons of standard coal will be saved and 2.1 million tons of carbon dioxide emissions will be reduced. The project adopts 6 MW wind turbine, which is currently the largest onshore wind turbine in China. After completion, it will increase the proportion of clean energy in the power grid of the autonomous region. It is a practical measure to build a new power system with new energy as the main body.
In the short term, the price of photovoltaic in the middle and upper reaches continued to rise slightly last week, which was mainly due to the lower than expected increase in the release of production expansion by large Chinese manufacturers, superimposed by the strong demand in the lower reaches.
From the supply side: according to the silicon industry branch, China’s polysilicon output in February was about 52300 tons, with a chain ratio of + 0.6%, and the growth rate was lower than expected. According to the production expansion progress of various enterprises, it is estimated that the polysilicon output of Q1 / Q2 / Q3 / Q4 in China will reach 16 / 18 / 18 / 200000 tons respectively in 2022. The annual overseas polysilicon supply is expected to be about 100000 tons, with a total silicon supply of about 820000 tons, which can meet the terminal installation demand of about 225gw From the demand side: Q1 PV demand is not weak in the off-season in 2022. In China, up to now, the scale of component bid opening / bidding of central state-owned enterprises exceeded 45gw in 2022, and the operating rate of component manufacturers remained high; Overseas, India will impose tariffs on imported photovoltaic products since April. At present, the Indian market is in the final rush period. Looking ahead to Q2, China suggests paying attention to the construction and commencement of large bases; Overseas, with the end of the rush to load in India, the growth rate of overseas demand may slow down. If the price of raw materials continues to rise, components and terminals may have a heavy wait-and-see, with a new installed capacity of 228gw.
From the perspective of supply and demand pattern: it is estimated that the overall new supply of Q1 silicon material in 2022 is still insufficient compared with the new demand in the downstream. The mismatch between supply and demand of silicon material in the short term may be maintained, the price of silicon material may maintain a slight upward trend, the battery link may be in the stage of price game, and the downstream component manufacturers and terminals are in a heavy wait-and-see mood.
With the subsequent capacity release of silicon material manufacturers, the prices in the middle and upper reaches are expected to decline, driving the downstream installation demand.
To sum up, it is expected that although China’s silicon material production capacity increased in April, the total supply is lower than expected, the demand remains high, but the growth rate of new production capacity is also limited, the supply and demand of silicon material market will maintain a basic balance, the price will be stable in the short term, and the possibility of sharp fluctuation is low. In addition, with the advantages of small floor area, flexibility and intelligence, distributed PV actively promotes the construction of distributed PV by superimposing the policies of the whole county. Distributed projects still account for a high proportion of new installed capacity in 2022.
From a long-term perspective, under the background of “double carbon” and the clear goal that the proportion of non fossil energy in primary energy consumption will reach about 20% in 2025, the cost of superimposed photovoltaic power generation continues to decline, the economy continues to improve, the demand for photovoltaic installed capacity is high, and the growth certainty is strong. Related targets: 1) silicon material leaders Tongwei Co.Ltd(600438) , Xinjiang Daqo New Energy Co.Ltd(688303) , with tight supply and demand pattern and high profitability; 2) Component integrated faucet Longi Green Energy Technology Co.Ltd(601012) , Trina Solar Co.Ltd(688599) , Ja Solar Technology Co.Ltd(002459) ; 3) Inverter taps benefiting from photovoltaic + energy storage dual wheel drive Sungrow Power Supply Co.Ltd(300274) , Ginlong Technologies Co.Ltd(300763) , Jiangsu Goodwe Power Supply Technology Co.Ltd(688390) ; 4) Photovoltaic glass duopoly Flat Glass Group Co.Ltd(601865) and Xinyi solar energy benefiting from the improvement of the permeability of double glass modules; 5) Subject to the short-term supply bottleneck of raw materials and limited market demand, the leading enterprises in EVA film link Hangzhou First Applied Material Co.Ltd(603806) , Shanghai Hiuv New Materials Co.Ltd(688680) ; 6) Zhejiang Chint Electrics Co.Ltd(601877) , Jinko Power Technology Co.Ltd(601778) , benefiting from the increased proportion of distributed photovoltaic.
Wind power: in the short term, in 2022, the wind power industry will expand intensively, the pace of expansion is in a hurry, the trend of large-scale wind turbines is significant, the overall cost of the industry is expected to continue to decline, and the wind power landscape is expected to improve. In the medium and long term, wind power is one of the alternative forms of energy to achieve “carbon neutrality”. The wind power industry has broad prospects and long-term growth space. At the same time, offshore wind power is the key to solve the contradiction between insufficient power generation and power load in the eastern coastal areas. Subject matter with cost advantage and technical core competitiveness: Dajin Heavy Industry Co.Ltd(002487) , Titan Wind Energy (Suzhou) Co.Ltd(002531) , Qingdao Tianneng Heavy Industries Co.Ltd(300569) , Riyue Heavy Industry Co.Ltd(603218) , Ming Yang Smart Energy Group Limited(601615) , Xinjiang Goldwind Science And Technology Co.Ltd(002202) , Sinoma Science & Technology Co.Ltd(002080) , Jinlei Technology Co.Ltd(300443) , etc.
Risk tips
The production and sales of new energy vehicles are lower than expected; The double carbon policy is less than expected; The epidemic development exceeded expectations.
