Key investment points
Recent view: Catering Tourism: since March, the epidemic has escalated in many parts of the country. From the perspective of the number of provinces affected by the transmission chain and the number of confirmed cases, the scope and degree of this round of epidemic bombs are beyond the past. At present, the core epidemic areas have begun to significantly tighten travel policies and strengthen prevention and control measures. It is expected that the impact scope of the epidemic is expected to be controlled and the probability of further deterioration is low. After repeated outbreaks in the market, the panic mentality will gradually weaken, and the expectation of sector repair is strong: 1) the 14th five year plan and relief policies for tourism have been issued, and the state has provided strong support for the recovery and development of the industry; 2) The State Council issued the covid-19 antigen detection plan, adjusted the covid-19 diagnosis and treatment plan, optimized the detection, admission and other aspects, and we maintained 2022 as an important transition year. Robust combination: Shanghai Jin Jiang International Hotels Co.Ltd(600754) , Songcheng Performance Development Co.Ltd(300144) , Btg Hotels (Group) Co.Ltd(600258) ; High elasticity combination: Jiangsu Tianmu Lake Tourism Co.Ltd(603136) , Zhejiang Ssaw Boutique Hotels Co.Ltd(301073) . Jewelry: the Spring Festival Gold jewelry terminal sales can still maintain the overall growth under the high base in 2021. With the gradual improvement of the domestic epidemic, the recovery of offline consumption and the release of wedding demand will continue the prosperity of the industry. The leading jewelers are expected to further improve the market share by virtue of brand and channel advantages, and are optimistic about Chow Tai Seng Jewellery Company Limited(002867) , DEA shares with relevant capabilities. Maintain the judgment of tight supply and demand of high-quality products in the diamond industry in 2022. The upstream head companies are currently full production and full sales, with stable prices and high performance growth. The core of the supply and demand side depends on CVD technology changes and the layout of downstream international jewelry brands. It is optimistic about the upstream in the short term. The current valuation has a strong margin of safety. The core recommendation is Henan Liliang Diamond Co.Ltd(301071) . Comprehensive services: according to the data of the Education Bureau, the number of college graduates is expected to exceed 10 million in 2022, a record high in number and growth, and stabilizing employment is still the top priority. It is suggested to pay attention to the direction of vocational education and flexible employment supported by national policies, and recommend Jiangsu Chuanzhiboke Education Technology Co.Ltd(003032) , Beijing Career International Co.Ltd(300662) ; In addition, it is suggested to focus on Tourism + digital economy and sports track with event catalysis.
Important data update: 22w10 (March 6-march 12), leisure / business hotel reservation index (based on January 4, 2021) were 184.36/111.43 respectively, with a month on month increase of 16.44% / 21.40%; On March 19, the base gold price was 396.1 yuan, down 2.49 PCT month on month.
This week (March 14-march 18), the Shenwan social service index increased by 1.79% relative to the CSI 300, the CSI 300 index decreased by 0.94%, and the Shenwan social service index (801210) increased by 0.85%, ranking fourth among the 31 primary industry indexes of Shenwan. The stocks with larger gains this week are: Guangzhou Lingnan Group Holdings Company Limited(000524) (+ 35.11%), Junting Hotel (+ 20.48%), and Chengdu B-Ray Media Co.Ltd(600880) (+ 14.67%); The stocks with large decline are: Chow Tai Seng Jewellery Company Limited(002867) (- 16.54%), Dalian My Gym Education Technology Co.Ltd(002621) (- 14.04%), China National Gold Group Gold Jewellery Co.Ltd(600916) (- 9.86%). In terms of overseas performance: this week, the S & P 500 rose by 6.16%, and the targets of the US stock social service sector rose. The stock with the largest increase was aibiying (+ 15.06%), and the stock with the smallest increase was catering brand international (+ 3.42%); The Hang Seng Index rose by 4.18%, and 10 targets in the social service sector of Hong Kong stocks rose and 3 fell. The largest increase was the same way travel (+ 19.18%), and the largest decrease was Yum China (- 3.90%).
Industry key information tracking: Catering Tourism: Hotel: tuniu’s Q4 net revenue in 2021 was 73.4 million yuan, a year-on-year decrease of 38.2%; Housekeeper rabbit technology completed tens of millions of angel round financing. Catering: from January to February, the catering revenue was 771.8 billion yuan, accounting for 10.4% of the total retail sales of social consumer goods, with a year-on-year increase of 8.9%. Industry trends: the health inspection commission triggered the ninth edition of covid-19 diagnosis and treatment plan. Jewelry: gold jewelry: from January to February, the retail sales of gold, silver and jewelry consumer goods reached 63.9 billion yuan, a year-on-year increase of 19.5%; Rapaport’s latest move: take off the Russian company and mark the source of Russian blanks. Cultivate diamonds: cultivate diamond brand clean origin and obtain financing of USD 20 million. Comprehensive services: Education: tal enters intelligent hardware and Life Sciences; New Oriental layout digital transformation services in higher vocational colleges. Sports: at present, the scale of China’s sports consumption is about 1.5 trillion, which is expected to grow to 2.8 trillion in 2025, with a compound growth rate of more than 13%.
Tracking of key announcements of listed companies: 1) Chow Tai Seng Jewellery Company Limited(002867) ( Chow Tai Seng Jewellery Company Limited(002867) . SZ): the announcement of main business data from January to February 2022 showed that the company achieved an operating revenue of about 2.319 billion yuan, a year-on-year increase of 203.11%; The net profit attributable to the shareholders of the listed company was about 218 million yuan, with a year-on-year increase of 36.01%. 2) DEA shares (301177. SZ): according to the announcement of main operating data from January to February 2022, the company achieved an operating revenue of about 796 million yuan, with a year-on-year increase of about 32%; The net profit attributable to shareholders of listed companies was about RMB 229 million, with a year-on-year increase of about 38%.
This week (March 14-march 18) Shareholding changes of Shanghai, Shenzhen and Hong Kong stock connect (calculated according to the proportion of circulating shares): Shanghai Jin Jiang International Hotels Co.Ltd(600754) reduce holdings by 0.42pct to 4.42% Btg Hotels (Group) Co.Ltd(600258) reduce 0.29pct to 5.59% Songcheng Performance Development Co.Ltd(300144) increased its holdings by 0.04 PCT to 5.78% China Cyts Tours Holding Co.Ltd(600138) keep 1.06% unchanged Guangzhou Restaurant Group Company Limited(603043) increased its holdings by 0.03 PCT to 2.86% Offcn Education Technology Co.Ltd(002607) reduce 0.05pct to 0.50% Jiangsu Chuanzhiboke Education Technology Co.Ltd(003032) reduce 0.04pct to 0.16% Beijing Career International Co.Ltd(300662) reduce 0.25 PCT to 4.42% Chow Tai Seng Jewellery Company Limited(002867) reduce 0.11pct to 1.06%.
Reminders of major events of Listed Companies in the next two weeks: estimated disclosure time of annual report: 3.22: Guangzhou Lingnan Group Holdings Company Limited(000524) ; 3.29 Shanghai Jin Jiang International Hotels Co.Ltd(600754) ； 3.30 Changbai Mountain Tourism Co.Ltd(603099) ； 3.31 China Cyts Tours Holding Co.Ltd(600138) Yunnan Tourism Co.Ltd(002059) 6 Hytera Communications Corporation Limited(002583) 00179。
Risk warning: systemic risk of social service industry; Ticket and cableway environmental protection passenger transport price reduction risk; Corporate governance risk; Impairment loss of goodwill; Deterioration of international relations or impact of terrorist attacks; Risk of policy changes in tax-free industries; Risk of reduction of major shareholders; Systemic risk of secondary stock market.
