Current investment tips:
The Shenwan agriculture, forestry, animal husbandry and fishery index fell 4.94% this week, while the Shanghai and Shenzhen 300 index fell 0.72% in the same period. Fishery, forestry and agriculture sectors led the increase, rising 1.84%, 0.00% and 0.00% respectively. Top three gainers of some key stocks: Shenzhen Kingsino Technology Co.Ltd(002548) (8.15%), ST Nantang (2.67%), Tangrenshen Group Co.Ltd(002567) (1.41%). Investment analysis opinions: focus on two major industry changes: improvement of aquaculture profits; Transgenic maize breeding promotion process. It is suggested to pay attention to: Muyuan Foods Co.Ltd(002714) , Wens Foodstuff Group Co.Ltd(300498) , Jiangsu Lihua Animal Husbandry Co.Ltd(300761) , Shandong Denghai Seeds Co.Ltd(002041) , Fujian Tianma Science And Technology Group Co.Ltd(603668) , Haida shares, Fujian Sunner Development Co.Ltd(002299) , Jinyu Bio-Technology Co.Ltd(600201) .
Pig breeding: pig prices are low, feed prices rise, and breeding is facing two-way squeeze; Pay attention to the medium-term direction of capacity removal and optimize the layout of individual stocks. Pig prices continued to fluctuate and fall this week: according to Yongyi consulting, the average selling price of commercial pigs this week was 11.78 yuan / kg, down 0.24 yuan / kg month on month, or 2%. On March 20, the average selling price of commercial pigs nationwide was 11.48 yuan / kg, down 3% on a weekly basis. The slaughter weight of pigs decreased slightly: according to the consulting data of Yongyi, the average slaughter weight of commercial pigs this week was 117.58kg/head, with a decrease of 0.15% on a weekly basis. In fact, the sentiment of the industrial side (especially retail investors) to continue to be bearish on the follow-up pig price is weak, but some breeding enterprises are more active in marketing, and there is a trend of weight loss and accelerated marketing. Pig production is growing inertia. At present, there are many pigs in the market, and the industry supply is relatively abundant: according to the data of the Ministry of agriculture and rural areas and the National Bureau of statistics, the national pig stock was 449 million at the end of December 2021, with a year-on-year increase of 10.5%. These pigs will be listed one after another, and the pig production supply is sufficient. In January this year, the number of pigs sold nationwide increased by 23.6% year-on-year, and the number of pigs sold in February increased by 8.2% year-on-year. With the advent of the off-season after the Spring Festival, the demand for pork has decreased significantly, and there has been an obvious “phased surplus” in pork supply. This is the main reason for the recent downturn in pig prices. In this context, the collection and storage of the third batch of frozen meat has been opened recently: according to the monitoring of the national development and Reform Commission, the national average pig grain price ratio is 4.75 ∶ 1, which is in the level-1 early warning range of excessive decline for three consecutive weeks. The national development and Reform Commission will work with relevant departments to start the collection and storage of the third batch of central frozen pork reserves during the year, and guide all localities to speed up the collection and storage. Under the background of low pig prices, the industry fell into continuous losses: according to wind data, on March 18, the profits of self breeding pigs and purchased piglets were -547.16 and -258.05 yuan / head respectively, and the loss increased by 5.66% and 33.36% on a weekly basis, which has fallen into losses for 13 consecutive weeks. The reduction of production capacity is still ongoing: according to the latest data released by the Ministry of agriculture and rural areas, by the end of February, the number of fertile sows in China was 42.682 million, down 0.51% month on month, and the reduction of production capacity continued. At the same time, the capacity reduction trend of large-scale pig breeding farms monitored by the pig branch of China Animal Husbandry Association is more obvious: in February, the number of dual breeding sows in fixed-point pig breeding farms continued to decline by 0.7% month on month and 19.8% year-on-year. However, at present, there are still differences in the production decision-making and production capacity planning rhythm of breeding subjects of different scales: some farms with less than 10000 sows still have a certain cash support. At the same time, they have high expectations for pig prices in the second half of the year, and their willingness and pace of capacity de industrialization are slow. Under the background that the market is generally optimistic about the market in the second half of the year, the rhythm of production capacity adjustment of some farmers has changed (only some large farms with financial pressure are considered to be eliminated), or the decline of pig supply in the second half of the year is not as expected, which affects the amplitude and time node of pig price rebound. Pay attention to the catalyst of feed price rise, increased cost and loss or accelerated elimination of production capacity: the high price of raw materials and the obvious rise of feed price push up the breeding cost, and the loss of farmers may further increase. Since 2022, the prices of main raw materials of pig feed (corn and soybean meal) have remained high or increased significantly, which will promote the price rise of pig feed. As feed accounts for the highest proportion of pig breeding cost (about 60%), the increase in feed price is expected to further push up the average breeding cost of the industry. Under the background of the continued downturn in the probability of pig price, the breeding loss is expected to expand, causing farmers to accelerate the elimination of production capacity. Investment analysis opinion: we believe that the general direction of capacity deregulation at the current time point has been relatively determined, and the difference lies in the pace and extent of deregulation. In fact, the short-term pig price continues to be depressed, the feed is facing the upward price pressure of raw materials, and the industry profit will be squeezed in both directions; The loss of pig breeding may intensify and accelerate the de production of sows. It is suggested to “eliminate the short and seek the long”: weaken the grasp of the short-term de industrialization rhythm, pay more attention to the certainty of supply and demand brought by the de industrialization of production capacity, improve the expectation, and optimize the key allocation of opportunities from multiple perspectives on the growth elasticity of enterprises, capital security and valuation level. Pay attention to Muyuan Foods Co.Ltd(002714) , Wens Foodstuff Group Co.Ltd(300498) , Leshan Giantstar Farming&Husbandry Corporation Limited(603477) , etc.
Feed: this week, China Feed Industry Association announced the national feed production situation from January to February 2022. According to the data of sample enterprises, the total output of industrial feed in China from January to February 2022 was 43.84 million tons, a year-on-year increase of 3.5%. In terms of varieties, the output of pig feed was 21.26 million tons, a year-on-year increase of 2.9%.
We think this is related to the increase of pig stock. Meanwhile, in the first two months of this year, the price of corn was at an all-time high, and the price of soybean meal and other main raw materials was higher than that of the same period last year, driving the ex factory price of compound feed and concentrated feed products to continue to rise year-on-year: the average price of compound feed for fattening pigs in January and February was 3.50 and 3.57 yuan / kg respectively, with a year-on-year increase of 3.0% from January to February. The proportion of corn in feed decreased, and the proportion of soybean meal increased:
From January to February 2022, the proportion of corn consumption in compound feed produced by feed enterprises was 35.3%, a year-on-year decrease of 0.9%; The consumption of soybean meal in compound feed and concentrated feed accounted for 14.7%, with a year-on-year increase of 0.5%.
Eel breeding: the poor harvest of eel seedlings this season is almost a foregone conclusion. It is optimistic that the eel price will rise in 22-23 years. Continue to be optimistic about the upward boom in eel prices from 2022 to 2023, and there is still plenty of room for subsequent eel prices to rise. It is suggested to pay attention to the leader of eel industry chain integration Fujian Tianma Science And Technology Group Co.Ltd(603668) .
Broiler breeding: the layout of yellow chicken is reversed, and white chicken attaches importance to growth. Yellow feather broiler: under the continuous loss, the production capacity is significantly reduced. Supply shrinks, demand suppresses, marginal improvement can focus on Jiangsu Lihua Animal Husbandry Co.Ltd(300761) , Wens Foodstuff Group Co.Ltd(300498) , Hunan Xiangjia Animal Husbandry Company Limited(002982) . White feather broiler: with abundant production capacity and the risk of excess supply, we pay attention to the medium and long-term layout value after the correction of subdivision leaders. Pay attention to Fujian Sunner Development Co.Ltd(002299) .
Risk tips: the prices of pigs and broilers remain low, and the breeding and promotion process of genetically modified corn is delayed; Breeding outbreak.
