In February 2022, the prosperity of the home appliance industry rebounded significantly, and the domestic electrical appliances, kitchen and bathroom electric circuit took the lead. In the short term, the epidemic intensified in some areas in March, and online household appliances and small kitchen appliances are expected to benefit indirectly, while large household appliances and offline sales are likely to be under pressure; In the long run, the favorable real estate policies of many cities in q12022 occur frequently. With the continuous accumulation of favorable policies, the marginal improvement logic of the real estate post cycle continues to strengthen. According to the data of the real estate world, the delivery area of new houses is expected to further increase in 2022. Although the rebound in the heat of second-hand housing transactions in the short term is not obvious, the recovery of policy driven demand is worthy of attention.
Post cycle observation of real estate in key markets: the delivery area of new houses is expected to rise further year-on-year in 2022, and the trading heat of second-hand houses is still hovering at the bottom. In terms of China's market demand, from January to February, the zero data of household appliance cooperatives increased by 12.7% year-on-year, and China's demand improved; Since the beginning of 2022, central departments and local governments have issued various policies to relax purchase and loan restrictions, reduce interest rates and down payment ratio due to urban policies, and vigorously support the real estate industry; From the perspective of the heat of second-hand housing transactions, the heat of second-hand housing transactions in February increased by 5.7% month on month, decreased by 36.8% year-on-year, and the year-on-year decline narrowed significantly. From the perspective of overseas market demand, the export of household appliances was under pressure from January to February, with the export volume falling by 7.9% year-on-year and the export amount falling by 3.6%, but the U.S. real estate was still recovering. In January 2022, the number of new sales fell by 16.8% year-on-year, but the number of private houses under construction increased by 22% year-on-year. The overall demand for U.S. real estate is expected to remain stable.
Observation on the scissors difference between home appliance prices and PPI: the price of core raw materials has increased significantly, the transmission of superimposed terminal prices is blocked, and the gross profit margin of household electrical products is under pressure. In February 2022, among the online Amoy prices, the average price of washing machines decreased by 3%, dishwashers increased by 12%, integrated stoves increased by 25% and air conditioners increased by 5% year-on-year. In the same period, the average prices of copper and aluminum changed by 7% - 15% and 40-70% year-on-year. In the short term, affected by external events, The prices of some raw materials are expected to remain in a high range of shocks (as of March 17, the price indexes of steel, cold rolled sheet and plastic have decreased by 0.4%, 0.84% and 1.53% month on month respectively). The short-term gross profit of ice washing and other major power companies may be under pressure, but the ability to raise prices has initially appeared.
Online heat comprehensive observation: in February, household appliances boom significantly rebounded, sales of Amoy channel increased 2.4%, Jingdong tiktok increased 34.66%, and sales of household appliances continued to expand. Specifically, from the perspective of Jingdong channel, the growth rate of optional / mandatory consumer appliances was 37% and 32% respectively, both of which increased significantly; The growth rate of quality life and female consumer appliances reached 50.3% and 31.2%, and quality life continued to significantly outperform the growth rate of the industry; After the real estate cycle, the growth rate of household appliances reached 27%. With the frequent positive real estate policies transmitted to the release of purchase demand, the future performance can be expected; From the perspective of the industry, household appliances and kitchen and bathroom appliances rebounded significantly. Jitter as a new live business, brand tiktok mining incremental. Specifically, the kitchen small electricity comprehensive head brand Zhejiang Supor Co.Ltd(002032) , Jiuyang monthly sales are in a stable position, while zhenmi, Watson, cuko and other brands rely on high growth categories such as electric steamers and air fryers. Among the cleaning appliances, the pattern of floor sweeping Siasun Robot&Automation Co.Ltd(300024) track is stable, the concentration of Ecovacs Robotics Co.Ltd(603486) + yeedi is stable at about 88%, and the concentration of Tianke in the floor washer track drops to 35%. Haier floor washer rises rapidly, followed by emerging brands such as uwant and Delma, with fierce competition. The development of kitchenware, massage equipment and other tracks is less than expected, but it is worth noting that the category of integrated stoves has gradually moved from flow to purchase, and the purchase transformation of Marssenger Kitchenware Co.Ltd(300894) , Yitian and Meida has broken through from 0 to 0.15%, 0.17% and 0.35%.
Risk warning: data in Jingdong, jitter, tiktok and shell are short. The macroeconomic recovery was less than expected, and the decline of residents' purchasing power led to the contraction of household appliance demand; Local outbreaks have been repeated, curbing residents' consumption enthusiasm.
