On March 16, the Finance Committee of the State Council held a special meeting to emphasize the need to maintain the stable operation of the capital market. Market sentiment improved significantly, and A-share market rebounded in a V shape.
For the future trend of a shares, the research reports just released by several securities companies believe that there have been many bottom signals of a shares, and the data of China's economic operation in the first two months disclosed by the National Bureau of statistics is better than expected; At the same time, with the dialogue between the heads of state of China and the United States and the landing of the boots of the Federal Reserve to raise interest rates in the short term, as well as the current low valuation of a shares, the stage similar to the sharp decline in the early stage may have ended, and it is even expected to brewing a wave of rebound.
Last week's meeting of the financial committee of the State Council made a positive response to the recent market concerns about macroeconomic, real estate, zhonggai shares, platform economy and other issues, and proposed to "actively introduce policies conducive to the market and carefully introduce contractive policies".
After the special meeting of the finance committee was held, the securities industry responded positively, and several major exchanges successively issued policies to reduce the fees of listed companies; China Clearing also announced that it would reduce the payment proportion of the minimum settlement reserve for stock business by 2 percentage points from April. The "reduction of reserve requirements" in the securities industry is expected to release more than 30 billion yuan of working capital for securities companies.
Central China Securities Co.Ltd(601375) believes that the financial commission of the State Council will actively respond to market concerns, relevant policies will greatly enhance market confidence, and the market will also give a positive response.
Meanwhile, on March 15, the National Bureau of statistics released the data of major economic indicators from January to February. The added value of industries above designated size increased by 7.5% year-on-year, and the investment in fixed assets increased by 12.2% year-on-year. Among them, infrastructure investment increased by 8.1% and accelerated by 7.7 percentage points; The investment in manufacturing industry increased by 20.9%, accelerated by 7.4 percentage points, the total retail sales of social consumer goods increased by 6.7% year-on-year, accelerated by 5 percentage points month on month, and the import and export increased by 13.3% year-on-year.
Central China Securities Co.Ltd(601375) believes that the stabilization and recovery of economic data is mainly due to the gradual effect of the steady growth policy and the higher than expected investment in infrastructure and manufacturing. Consumption benefited from the Spring Festival and Winter Olympic Games, which improved significantly.
For the A-share market, China International Capital Corporation Limited(601995) said that after the previous adjustment, the A-share valuation has returned to the historical relatively low level, the phased low of 3023 points of Shanghai stock index, and the corresponding valuation level has been close to the historical relative bottom period. Recently, the net reduction scale of major shareholders and senior executives has been significantly narrowed, and the scale and quantity of repurchase of the company have increased.
China International Capital Corporation Limited(601995) believes that from a comprehensive point of view, although the market still has repeated risks in the short term, there is no need to be overly pessimistic about the future performance of a shares. In the near future, the market may be in the bottom grinding period, the trading volume may shrink, and the stage similar to the sharp decline in the early stage may have ended.
AVIC Securities said that China's "policy bottom" has been clear and the emotional bottom has passed. Combined with the continuous introduction of follow-up market friendly policies and the positive disclosure of annual reports and first quarter reports, the market is forming a wave of rebound.
China Merchants Securities Co.Ltd(600999) analyzed that in the future, with the accelerated improvement of new social finance, the easing of external negative factors, and the significant decline of turnover rate and transaction amount, A-Shares are expected to usher in the starting point of a new round of upward cycle.
YueKai Securities said that driven by the gradual establishment of internal policies and the gradual easing of external disturbances, the market is expected to continue the shock repair market by superimposing the current low valuation of a shares.
On March 17, the Federal Reserve officially raised the benchmark interest rate by 25 basis points, revised the statement of economic prospects, and made clear the matters related to the table reduction. The market has a clear expectation of its path of interest rate increase and table reduction within the year. "The US raised interest rates for the first time, US stocks rebounded, US bonds fell, the US dollar weakened, and the marginal impact on A-Shares is expected to weaken." China International Capital Corporation Limited(601995) think.
