The continuous rise of lithium battery materials has always attracted the attention of all parties in the industry. Recently, the Ministry of industry and information technology held two consecutive symposiums to convene industry associations and relevant principals of key enterprises upstream and downstream of the industrial chain such as lithium resource development, lithium salt production, cathode materials and power batteries. The meeting required that upstream and downstream enterprises in the industrial chain should strengthen the connection between supply and demand, work together to form a long-term and stable strategic cooperative relationship, jointly guide the rational return of lithium salt price, strengthen efforts to ensure market supply, and better support the healthy development of strategic emerging industries such as Shanxi Guoxin Energy Corporation Limited(600617) automobile.
As of March 18, the average price of battery grade lithium carbonate has exceeded 500000 yuan / ton, an increase of more than 80% over the beginning of the year. Although some suppliers do not rule out hoarding, the main reason for this round of price increase is the accelerated popularization of new energy vehicles, resulting in a large increase in the demand for lithium materials. According to the data, in 2021, the cumulative sales volume of global new energy vehicles was nearly 6.5 million, with a year-on-year increase of 108%. Among them, the sales volume of Shanxi Guoxin Energy Corporation Limited(600617) vehicles in China was 352100, an increase of 157.5%. After seeing the trend, some traditional car companies increased the layout of new energy vehicles, which further promoted the rise of lithium battery material prices.
Unfortunately, as a big country in new energy vehicles and power battery production, China’s total lithium resources are not the first, nor does it grasp the global pricing power of lithium battery materials. At present, many lithium mines with low mining difficulty and rich reserves are abroad. Therefore, although the contradiction between supply and demand of upstream and downstream can be balanced by maintaining supply and stable price in the short term, it will take time for China’s local supply to be released in the medium and long term. The contradiction between supply and demand will continue, and the kinetic energy of lithium battery material price rise is difficult to eradicate. The information transmitted at the Symposium of the Ministry of industry and information technology also shows that all parties in the industry have a relatively clear understanding of this situation, and the countermeasures put forward are to make efforts at both ends of supply and demand at the same time.
To solve the current “lithium crazy” phenomenon, the author believes that in the short term, we can rely on maintaining supply and stabilizing price and connecting supply and demand, but in the medium term, we need to further increase the development of lithium resources and release supply. In the long run, the ultimate solution is to strengthen technological upgrading and get rid of the dependence of power batteries on lithium, nickel and other materials.
According to the research of some securities companies, China’s lithium resource reserves will be about 5.1 million tons in 2020, accounting for 6% of the global lithium resource reserves. With the recent discovery of many lithium mines in China, there is still room for growth in China’s lithium resource reserves in the future. At present, the bottleneck of mineral exploration in the western region lies in the relatively large difficulty and low degree of development. However, in the face of the rising price of lithium battery materials, we should encourage scientific and technological personnel to carry out special scientific and technological research, further reduce the mining cost and improve the separation efficiency of magnesium and lithium. Only by increasing supply from the source can we have more say in the international lithium resource market and provide more “food” for the Chinese Shanxi Guoxin Energy Corporation Limited(600617) industry.
In the long run, “lithium super crazy” may not be a bad thing for the new energy industry. At present, there are still variables in the technical route of new energy vehicles, and the “King’s dispute” of positive and negative materials of power batteries is far from the end. The R & D and commercial exploration of sodium ion battery and aluminum air battery are in full swing. The rise of lithium battery materials is bound to accelerate this trend. Since the reserves, distribution and price of sodium resources and aluminum resources have more advantages than lithium resources, once a technological breakthrough is formed, the price of lithium battery materials will naturally return to rationality.
