Under the strong impetus of favorable policies, A-Shares rebounded strongly after “squatting” last week. The three major stock indexes rose more than 6% in three trading days, and the Shanghai index recovered 3200 points. Hong Kong stocks, which continued to callback for more than a year, also showed an obvious repair market in the second half of last week.
In the view of insiders, the current “policy bottom” of A-Shares has appeared, and the market is in the “bottom grinding period”. The future market will return to the normal driven by fundamental logic, and the force of steady growth policy will drive the market to “fill the pit”. The panic selling in the early stage of the Hong Kong stock market may come to an end temporarily, and the market will also gradually enter the “bottom grinding period” of consolidation.
“policy bottom” is clear
With the positive signal released at the meeting held by the financial commission of the State Council on March 16, the three major A-share indexes rebounded on the same day and collectively hit a new high in the year. The rebound trend continued in the next two trading days. As of the closing on March 18, the cumulative gains of Shanghai index, Shenzhen Composite Index and gem index in the three trading days reached 6.11%, 6.86% and 8.34% respectively. The weekly line of gem index took the lead in turning red.
The meeting of the financial committee of the State Council talked about the topics of steady growth, real estate, China concept shares, platform economy and other markets. According to Qin Peijing, chief strategist of Citic Securities Company Limited(600030) (21.450, 0.73, 3.52%), the meeting of the financial commission of the State Council comprehensively responded to market concerns and made clear determination to stabilize the capital market, reversing the general irrational selling phenomenon in the past two weeks.
China Securities Co.Ltd(601066) Securities chief strategist Chen Guo believes that the “policy bottom” of this round of decline has appeared, market confidence has been restored, the market view has changed from cautious to neutral in the medium term and optimistic judgment in the short term. However, Chen Guo suggested that compared with the “policy bottom” in 2018, the current market position is high, the decline time is short, and from the perspective of micro liquidity, the capital inflow is not strong, and the outflow pressure of allocated foreign capital is still worthy of attention.
China Industrial Securities Co.Ltd(601377) chief strategist Zhang Qiyao judged that in view of the main problems concerned by the market, the meeting of the financial committee of the State Council gave clear plans, “the right medicine to the case” helped boost market confidence, and the “policy bottom” was clear; From the external environment, after the Federal Reserve announced the interest rate hike, US stocks still closed strongly, indicating that risk appetite is rapidly repairing. The sharp drop in global commodity prices has eased the market’s concern about the global stagflation crisis, and the external risks of the market are expected to improve.
According to Wang Hanfeng, China International Capital Corporation Limited(601995) chief strategist, although there are still repeated risks in the short term, there is no need to be overly pessimistic about the future performance of a shares. The market may be in the “bottom grinding period” and the sharp decline stage may have ended.
have confidence in the 3000 point support of the Shanghai Stock Index
Since March, the A-share market has experienced a significant correction, the growth of science and technology and blue chips have fallen to varying degrees, and only some resource stocks rose against the trend. For the future market, Qin Peijing believes that after the short pulse venting of extreme emotions, the A-share market will return to the normal driven by fundamental logic. It is suggested that investors grasp the resonant rising market of value growth.
Haitong Securities Company Limited(600837) chief strategist Xun Yugen compared historical data and pointed out that the adjustment of CSI 300 index (4265902, 28.21, 0.67%) (42659017, 28.21, 0.67%) has been obvious. At present, the overall valuation of A-Shares is not high, and the valuations of all A-Shares and most industries are at medium to low levels in history. The subsequent steady growth policies have been implemented and achieved practical results, which will drive the market to “fill the pit”.
Some securities companies have also made a clear judgment on the “bottom” of the future index. Lin rongxiong, chief strategist of Anxin securities, said he was confident in the 3000 support level of the Shanghai Composite Index. In March, the equity market was similar to that in 2012, and it was less likely to enter a unilateral downward trend. The “Nike type” trend of A-Shares in the second quarter was firm and expected. As for the market’s concern about global inflation, Lin rongxiong believes that although it is difficult to end in the short term, it will not change the internal operation logic of a shares.
The Hong Kong stock market also benefited from the policy boost last week. According to wind data, the major stock indexes of Hong Kong stocks rose sharply on March 16, and the Hang Seng technology index hit the largest daily increase of 22.20%; On March 17 and March 18, the main stock indexes of Hong Kong stocks continued to rebound, and the accumulated net purchase of southward funds in three trading days exceeded HK $10 billion.
Wang Hanfeng believes that the panic selling of Hong Kong stocks in the early stage may come to an end temporarily, and the market will gradually enter the “bottom grinding period” of consolidation. At present, the Hong Kong stock market has obvious valuation advantages, and the midline opportunities outweigh the risks. The introduction of the steady growth policy will not only help attract more southward capital inflows, but also improve the overall risk appetite of the market.
layout performance is expected to be better than the target
For the future allocation direction, it is the consensus of many securities companies that the undervalued value and the first quarterly performance are expected to exceed the expected varieties.
Qin Peijing suggested continuing to focus on “steady growth” main line , focusing on smart cars and parts, photovoltaic wind power equipment, aviation, hotels, building materials, communication operators and other fields.
Chen Guo believes that is expected to perform well in the first quarter, and is expected to focus on high-end manufacturing (new energy, semiconductor, military industry) and cyclical industries (coal, nonferrous metals, shipping) fields. In the consumer sector, Baijiu, CXO and track in vitro are better.
for the future layout of Hong Kong stocks, Wang Hanfeng suggested paying attention to with high dividend and undervalued targets in the short term, such as some financial, telecommunications and energy stocks , high-quality growth stocks with large decline in the early stage are also worth paying attention to . As for the rise of domestic products and the promotion of domestic products, we still pay attention to the theme of Brand upgrading.