Since March, the A-share market has fluctuated sharply, and the Shanghai stock index once fell below 3100 points. On March 16, boosted by the good news, the A-share market rebounded strongly. A number of private placement believe that the market as a whole is in the stage of shock and stabilization, and is expected to bottom up in the future.
As of March 18, this year, the Shanghai stock index has fallen by 10.68%, and the CSI 300 and gem index have fallen by 13.65% and 18.36% respectively.
Zhu Wei, general manager of Xie Nuo Chenyang, believes that the recent market is characterized by a bear market in terms of capital and technology. However, judging from the economic target of 5.5% this year set in the government work report of the two sessions, there must be large structural opportunities for the economic increment of about 6.3 trillion. "What we need to do is to grasp the structural market through solid industrial research."
Wang Shuojie, general manager of Yuanwei investment, pointed out that since this year, the lack of anchoring in the market has led to panic venting of funds and staged herding, but the market will return to the track of growth sooner or later. At the current time point, I still have confidence in the second and third quarters. This confidence mainly comes from the judgment of the industry and trend, as well as the in-depth study of macro and fundamentals over the years.
Looking forward to the future market, Zhongrui Heyin said frankly that the general rally is unsustainable, the market will continue to be depressed in the short term, and the future market will probably be divided and volatile. The market situation in 2022 will still reflect the structure, but it will be more differentiated than that in 2021. There will be opportunities for structural differentiation between and within sectors. We are relatively cautious and optimistic about the future market and opportunities.
Lu Xu, chief Macro Analyst of Kaifeng investment, pointed out that there is indeed downward overshoot in the short-term market, but we should remain optimistic about the medium and long-term market. First look at the macro fundamentals. From January to February, there were bursts of macroeconomic warmth. The two sessions set the economic growth target of 2022 at about 5.5%, which still has an obvious comparative advantage over the world. In the middle view, many growth industries still maintain a very high growth rate. Next, as the policy direction is more clear and the confidence of market participants is restored, the market is expected to bottom and recover.
Zhang Hao, director of Guanfu asset investment, believes that with the decision-making level's attitude to strengthen confidence and the expected periodic repair of the market, the medium-term trend may need to wait for the marginal easing of inflationary pressure and geographical situation, and the potential observation window period may be in the next 2-3 months. In the medium term, China's economy and market still have strong resilience. I believe that as long as we stick to economic construction as the center, continue to pursue scientific and technological innovation and industrial upgrading, and use development to solve problems, China can take the initiative in any geopolitical crisis and open up medium - and long-term development space.
Yu aibin, general manager of Jufeng capital, said that he still has full confidence in the market trend of this year. The short-term internal and external factors will not change the pattern and trend of steady progress in China's economy and market this year, and will not affect the fundamentals of most excellent companies. In addition, after a sharp decline, the prices of many excellent companies have fallen to a reasonably low range. I believe these companies can still get out of a good market this year.
Juming investment believes that the probability of A-Shares is a process of repeatedly grinding the bottom at the current point. The decline rate after the beginning of the year is very fast. In terms of the adjustment range, the valuation of most industries is at a historical low or reasonable position. For the market trend, continue to pay attention to the changes of epidemic situation, inflation and the conflict between Russia and Ukraine. The core is China's recycling and domestic demand, replacing imports and realizing autonomy and risk avoidance.
Wang Shuojie stressed that at present, the first thing is to establish confidence. The market environment is not only a barometer of the national economy, a booster for the coordinated development of the capital market and the real economy, but also a natural way to allocate resources to the core industries conducive to strengthening the country and enriching the people. He firmly believes in the important role of the A-share market in China's economic development. There is no shortage of money in the market, which may lack the continuous driving of positive factors. We need to keep calm thinking and careful analysis, seize the opportunity with strong certainty, and believe that the cornerstone of the development of the A-share market in the future will eventually return to the fundamentals, and the market will eventually stabilize under the driving of positive chips.
It is worth noting that on March 16, the financial committee of the State Council set the tone to enhance market confidence, and the market then reversed sharply. In this regard, kuanyuan assets believes that from the perspective of policy, it has played a role in enhancing confidence, but from the perspective of such huge short-term fluctuations in the market, the market sentiment is relatively extreme. With the short-term intensive emergence of market information, the market can gradually enter the stabilization stage after a period of digestion and stability. Before that, due to the short-term sharp fluctuations and sharp turns, the market may maintain a large range of irrational fluctuations for a period of time.
