Citic Securities Company Limited(600030) : the market returns to normal and grasp the resonance rising market
The internal and external anxiety factors were fully clear, and the venting of irrational emotions ended; The overall economic situation is stable, and the impact of follow-up precise epidemic control measures on the economy will gradually weaken; The implementation of overseas interest rate hikes and the conflict between Russia and Ukraine are becoming clearer, and the negative impact has been weakened; The A-share market returns to normal and grasps the resonant rising market of value growth.
First, the FSC meeting comprehensively responded to market concerns and made a clear determination to stabilize the capital market; After the call between Chinese and American leaders, the irrational panic factors caused by the conflict between Russia and Ukraine were eliminated. Secondly, the economic data of the first two months show that the economy is still resilient, policies in the real estate field still need to be strengthened, epidemic prevention and control and diagnosis and treatment guidelines continue to be optimized, and the negative impact on the economy will gradually weaken in the future. Thirdly, the Fed’s interest rate hike has landed, the market has a clearer expectation of the path of interest rate hike or table contraction during the year, and the evolution of the conflict between Russia and Ukraine is becoming increasingly clear, or is tending to reach an agreement. Finally, after the meeting of the financial stability Committee, the liquidity pressure was significantly relieved, and the market as a whole was in the range of low valuation. On the whole, under the superimposed influence of internal and external anxiety factors, the A-share market will return to the normal driven by fundamental logic after the pulse venting of short-term extreme emotions. It is suggested to continue to adhere to the main line of steady growth and focus on the balanced layout of “two low levels”.
Haitong Securities Company Limited(600837) : this year is still characterized as a volatile market, and the pit filling market begins
Compared with the rise and fall cycles of macro-economy and stock market, this year is a shock city similar to 12 years. Of course, the details of high and low points are different. The three negative factors that fell at the beginning of the year have changed slightly, and the steady growth is expected to drive the pit filling market. Follow the main line of steady growth, growth attack, such as photovoltaic wind power, data center cloud computing, and focus on financial real estate in the field of value.
Guotai Junan Securities Co.Ltd(601211) Securities: Dawn, return to shock
Jinwen will stabilize expectations and build confidence. After the sharp decline of the market, it will return to shock consolidation. In the future, the market still needs to see the real landing of steady growth, and trend opportunities still need to wait. After the gold stability meeting, the A-share market is expected to continue the rebound trend in the short term. However, the selection of stocks should focus on stocks with low-risk characteristics. Profit certainty, dividend strategy, high dividend strategy and undervalued strategy are the advantageous strategies for investors to obtain income at present. From the recent market structure, we can also observe the advantages of low-risk characteristic structure. Since February, the cumulative returns of dividend index and high dividend strategy index have been 3.80% and 3.14% respectively, with obvious excess return advantage.
Look for the intersection of undervalued value and profit improvement around the low-risk characteristics. In terms of investment, we should focus on stocks with low-risk characteristics, pay attention to the intersection of undervalued value and profit improvement, and focus on consumption and cycle sectors. Specifically, there are three directions: 1) to G end or public investment direction: photovoltaic, wind power, power operation, power grid, construction, etc; 2) Along the direction of inflation: coal and chemical resources; 3) dilemma reversal and profitability certainty: pig, Baijiu and so on.
China Securities Co.Ltd(601066) Securities: clear policy signals, focus on grasping the structure after rapid repair
Several meetings such as the financial committee were held one after another, marking that the end of the current round of decline policy has appeared, market confidence has been repaired and the deterioration of liquidity has been alleviated. Other factors of market concern have also improved significantly, such as the change of epidemic prevention ideas, the improvement of the external environment, the easing of depreciation concerns, etc.
Our view of the market has changed from cautious to neutral in the medium term and optimistic in the short term. However, we should have reasonable expectations for the follow-up space of the rebound, focusing on grasping the structure. 1. Compared with the “policy bottom” in 2018, the current market position is high and the decline time is short. 2. From the perspective of micro liquidity, capital inflow is not strong, and the outflow pressure of allocated foreign capital is still worthy of attention. 3. At present, some medium-term concerns remain unresolved, such as the bottom of the economy and corporate profits, global inflation and the Fed’s interest rate hike, and the repeated impact of the epidemic on the recovery.
At present, key industries are medicine, electronics, banking, agriculture, forestry, animal husbandry and fishery, military industry, new energy, etc.
CICC Securities: A-share market enters the bottom grinding stage
Although there are still repeated risks in the short term, there is no need to be overly pessimistic about the future performance of a shares. In the near future, the market may be in the bottom grinding period, the trading volume may shrink, and the stage similar to the sharp decline in the early stage may have ended.
At present, we pay attention to three directions: 1) potential support areas for policy development, including infrastructure, real estate, stable demand related industrial chains (building materials, construction, household appliances, home furnishings, etc.), brokerage finance, etc; 2) For the middle and lower reaches consumption with more adjustments, low valuation and clear medium and long-term prospects in 2021, choose stocks from bottom to top, including household appliances, light industry and household appliances, automobiles and parts, agriculture, forestry, animal husbandry and fishery, medicine, etc; 3) The manufacturing growth sector, including new energy vehicles, new energy and technology hardware semiconductors, has released some risks, and the turnaround is waiting for the marginal mitigation of overseas “inflation” risk.
China Merchants Securities Co.Ltd(600999) : A shares have seen multiple bottoming signals, which is expected to usher in the starting point of a new round of upward cycle
Since 2005, A-Shares have experienced seven historical bottoms, almost every time in the environment of liquidity contraction, downward earnings and external liquidity pressure. Referring to historical experience, when the excess liquidity turns positive, the growth rate of new social finance accelerates and improves, the valuation drops to a historical low, the margin of external liquidity improves, the transaction downturn, the turnover rate decreases significantly, and the K line is a w combination, it is mostly the signal of the bottom of the market. At present, A-Shares have gradually seen multiple bottom signals. In the future, with the accelerated improvement of new social finance, the easing of external negative factors, and the significant decline of turnover rate and transaction amount, A-Shares are expected to usher in the starting point of a new round of upward cycle.
After this round of A-Shares bottomed out, it is suggested to focus on two directions: first, focusing on the traditional infrastructure with steady growth and the improvement of real estate investment, upstream resource products may benefit more from this round of steady growth, including nonferrous metals, building materials, petroleum and petrochemical; Second, focus on the steady growth of new infrastructure, such as photovoltaic, wind power, energy storage and hydrogen energy; Digital infrastructure, such as IDC, big data cloud computing, etc.
Huatai Securities Co.Ltd(601688) : A shares are at the bottom of value, waiting patiently for a rebound to reverse
A shares experienced a “Three-stage” decline, breaking the strong support of the main broad-based index in July of 20 years, forming a medium and long-term value bottom; However, the sentiment of northward funds and financing funds rebounded for three days is not strong, and the internal and external comprehensive financial conditions faced by the market are still neutral. It is difficult for us to deduce a sustained strong rebound: 1) monetary policy “external income and internal looseness”; 2) The security demand of global funds is greater than the profit margin demand; 3) Overseas stagflation pressure and the tightening slope of the Federal Reserve form a seesaw. We believe that the subsequent rebound efforts should focus on the return sentiment of northward funds. The rebound space of the market is temporarily anchored by the annual performance growth rate of non-financial A shares (we expect 4% ~ 7%). The key from rebound to reversal is the performance inflection point of non-financial A shares (the probability is in the interim report). The reversal space considers the performance growth rate of next year + the change of internal and external comprehensive financial conditions.
Allocation idea: areas with strong macro and meso data + capital expenditure direction of the sector with the best cash flow. After the general oversold, the advantages and disadvantages of inter sector valuation are not prominent, focusing on the comparison of demand boom. 1) Track manufacturing with self consistent and strong macro and meso data: industrial added value from January to February is consistent with power consumption, manufacturing investment, PMI new orders and export data from January to February. Among them, the industrial added value of high-tech industry has a high year-on-year growth rate, which is consistent with the tracking conclusion of our emerging industry boom index, focusing on photovoltaic wind power, digital infrastructure, automotive intelligence and semiconductor; 2) The areas where the subsequent strong demand is located depend on who has the best cash flow and where the money will be used since last year: the cash flow of upstream energy and resource enterprises is the best. When the debt reduction goal is basically completed, steady growth will drive their capital expenditure expansion. We expect to focus on energy transformation and circular economy – focusing on green power, solid waste treatment and renewable metals.
China Industrial Securities Co.Ltd(601377) : “policy bottom” + “market bottom” has emerged, grasp the repair window
With the continuous release of China’s policy warmth, the currency and credit are expected to be loose. At the same time, the risks of overseas stagflation, interest rate hike, foreign capital outflow and China concept stock supervision are expected to be alleviated. The bottom of the market has appeared and will usher in a repair window. In terms of operation strategy, on the one hand, the pressure of scientific and technological growth, regardless of valuation or congestion, has been significantly improved, and the deterministic direction of performance (photovoltaic, semiconductor, energy storage, etc.) is configured at the bottom of the emotional repair window; On the other hand, the direction of “steady growth” is clear, and there is still room for repair in banks, real estate, etc. The two sessions and the meeting of the Finance Committee continue to release the signal of “stable growth”, and the pattern of “external chaos and internal stability” is determined. The sectors of state-owned enterprises, real estate, infrastructure, banks and securities companies are both safe and policy driven. For the growth of science and technology, combined with the ten indicators proposed in the “new half army” timing framework, the relevant sectors have entered the bottom area. At present, we can make a deep rebound along the photovoltaic, wind power, semiconductor and other sectors with strong performance certainty. At the same time, we can also find “small high-tech” from bottom to top based on the medium-term business trend and profit growth in the bottom area.
Investment strategy: “small high tech” + “big finance” and “dumbbell” configuration: on the one hand, in the adjustment of medicine, computer and “new half army”, find the target that meets the characteristics of “small high tech” from bottom to top; On the other hand, focus on the financial, real estate, new and old infrastructure and other sectors that benefit from the expectation of “steady growth”. In the long term, we will continue to focus on the five major directions of scientific and technological innovation. 1) New energy (new energy vehicles, photovoltaic, wind power, UHV, etc.), 2) new generation information and communication technology (artificial intelligence, big data, cloud computing, 5g, etc.), 3) high-end manufacturing (intelligent CNC machine tools, Siasun Robot&Automation Co.Ltd(300024) , advanced rail transit equipment, etc.), 4) biomedicine (innovative drugs, CXO, medical devices and diagnostic equipment, etc.), 5) military industry (missile equipment, military electronic components, space station, space shuttle, etc.).
Anxin Securities: A shares are expected to rebound in the short term
We firmly recognize this stability maintenance policy and are expected to rebound in the short term. However, it should be emphasized that whether there is a reversal in the market index at the end of 2012 or at the end of 2018, it ultimately depends on the expected position of the profit inflection point of molecular fundamentals, and the subsequent market will change from “listening to its words” to “observing its actions”. Generally speaking, the market bottom needs to be accompanied by the contraction of trading volume or the verification of turnover rate, which will be more stable. See long Zaitian in March and have confidence in the 3000 support level of Shanghai Composite Index. At the same time, we maintained our previous prediction of the end of the current round of economy in the second quarter. The inflection point for the improvement of molecular fundamentals is expected to be closer, and the negative impact of external factors (Russia Ukraine conflict, fed interest rate hike and global inflation) is weakened. After the fed interest rate hike on March 17, China’s monetary policy is still “dominated by me”. The possibility of entering a unilateral downward trend in the equity market is low, similar to that in 2012. In the second quarter, A-Shares jumped into the abyss, The trend of “Nike type” is firm and predictable.
Maintain the judgment that we are currently in “positional warfare” (strategic stalemate, maintaining concentration, not suitable for switching back and forth), and the consensus of the market will focus on the low position, looking for growth + short term (Q1 performance exceeds expectations and strong policy support). At present, we are in the process of “realizing steady growth and turning the corner of high prosperity”. It is still recommended to configure high prosperity and steady growth post epidemic repair global inflation. In addition, the order of market preference is: growth, cycle weighted blue chip old infrastructure and consumption.
YueKai Securities: shock repair, double line layout
At present, the end of the policy has been gradually established, the implementation has begun to increase, and the external environment has the trend of gradual easing. From the strength comparison between the long and short sides, many parties slowly have the energy to fight back, coupled with the current low valuation of a shares, so we can actively layout the shock and repair the market in the future. It is suggested to grasp the investment opportunities from the main line of policy force and performance certainty.
first, focus on the main line of policy development steady growth is the main policy line and will remain the main market in the long run. It is suggested to continue to pay attention to new and old infrastructure and investment opportunities in the consumer industry to expand domestic demand. In addition, after the special meeting of the finance committee, it is expected that more market stabilizing policies will be introduced soon, which will directly benefit the large financial sector. The reduction of the payment proportion of settlement provisions is equivalent to the reduction of the standard in the securities industry. At present, the valuation of the securities industry is 1.47 times the price to book ratio, which is at the 13% quantile of the valuation in recent ten years. It is suggested to pay attention to the investment opportunities in the large financial sector dominated by securities companies second, grasp the certainty of performance focus on industries with higher than expected growth in the first quarter and better operating data in the first two months. At present, a total of 39 enterprises in the A-share market have disclosed the performance forecast of the first quarter report, and 34 enterprises are expected to be happy, including many enterprises in basic chemical industry, electronics, medical biology, national defense and military industry. In terms of performance growth, 15 enterprises are expected to double their net profits, including a large number of basic chemical and national defense military enterprises. In addition, according to the operation in the first two months of 2022, the industries with a large number of companies and high profit growth rate are nonferrous metals (+ 259%), power equipment (+ 142%) and basic chemical industry (+ 125%).
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