The situation in Russia and Ukraine is still the most important variable affecting the market!
In terms of the progress of the war, according to global network, according to Agence France Presse, Russia said it launched hypersonic missiles into Ukraine again.
In terms of the progress of the Russian Ukrainian negotiations, according to Reuters quoting Turkey’s “Daily News” on the 20th, Turkish Foreign Minister chavusholu said on the same day that Russia and Ukraine were close to agreement on key issues of the agreement.
From the perspective of the spillover effect of Ukraine’s foreign minister, Wang Yi said that on the 20th, China’s attitude towards the global crisis is evolving. International disputes should be resolved by peaceful means, and the parties concerned should cease fire and cease war as soon as possible. The joint statement issued by Japan and India over the weekend did not mention the names of any relevant countries, but only called for “an immediate cessation of violence”.
So, how will the market go this week? The past week has been full of twists and turns, but the A-share market has finally walked out of the V-shaped rebound pattern. Judging from the weekend and some expectations for this week, at present, the number of respondents who are bullish on A50 is as high as 63%, so it is still possible to rise in the short term. In the medium term, it will return to economic fundamentals and enterprise performance. In addition, we should also consider the latest progress of the situation in Russia and Ukraine and the speed and extent of the Fed’s interest rate increase and contraction.
Wang Yi proposed four positions
According to Xinhua news agency, on March 20, State Councilor and foreign minister Wang Yi jointly met with reporters after talks with Algerian foreign minister Ramallah in Tunxi, Anhui Province. A reporter asked that the current conflict between Russia and Ukraine continues, the United States and Europe continue to increase extreme sanctions against Russia, while China and developing countries have their own views and positions. At present, there seems to be a vast “middle zone”.
Wang Yi said in this regard that recently, I have exchanged views with foreign ministers of many Asian and African countries. I feel that many countries in the world, like China, pay high attention to the development of the crisis in Ukraine and have many common languages.
First of all, we all believe that the purposes and principles of the Charter of the United Nations should be followed, international disputes should be resolved by peaceful means, and the parties concerned should cease fire and end the war as soon as possible. I agree with foreign minister Ramallah that when the United Nations General Assembly discussed the Ukrainian issue, many countries on both sides abstained. Abstention is also an attitude to give peace a chance. It is not in favor of settling disputes with war and sanctions. It is a responsible attitude. At the same time, we all believe that the Ukrainian issue today is not accidental, but the result of the comprehensive action of various factors. It is also the outbreak of contradictions accumulated for many years. The root lies in the security problem of Europe. The practice of NATO’s unlimited eastward expansion is worthy of reflection. In the long run, the European parties should build a balanced, effective and sustainable regional security framework through dialogue and negotiation based on the principle of indivisibility of security and respecting each other’s reasonable concerns.
Wang Yi stressed that the evolution of the Ukrainian crisis is surpassing itself, and the spillover effect has spread all over the world. On this issue, most countries, including China and developing countries, have both reasonable concerns and similar positions:
First, it is generally believed that to deal with international and regional hotspot issues, there are not only two options: War and sanctions. Dialogue and negotiation is the fundamental solution, and this direction should be adhered to under the current situation.
Second, the momentum of world economic recovery should not be undermined. Under the background of the impact of the epidemic, the escalating unilateral sanctions will break the global industrial chain and supply chain, resulting in an impact on the lives of people all over the world. The people of all countries have no responsibility to pay for geographical conflicts and the game of great powers.
Third, all countries have the right to independently decide their own foreign policies and should not be forced to choose sides and stand in line. In dealing with complex issues and different opinions, we should not adopt the simplified approach of either enemy or friend or black or white. In particular, we should resist the Cold War mentality and oppose camp confrontation.
Fourth, the sovereignty, independence and territorial integrity of all countries should be respected at all times. This principle should be applied to all countries and regions without exceptions, let alone double standards.
According to the global times, Japanese Prime Minister Fumio Kishida began a two-day visit to India on Saturday and attended the annual India Japan summit with Indian Prime Minister modi. According to previous reports by Japanese media, one of the main tasks of Kishida’s visit is to persuade modi to take a tougher stance on Russia. However, at the press conference held after the meeting on Saturday, Ishida reiterated that he had told modi that “Russia’s invasion is a serious act that shakes the foundation of the international order and must be resolutely dealt with”, while modi did not mention Ukraine, saying only that geopolitical events have brought “new challenges”. The joint statement issued by the two sides did not mention the names of any relevant countries, but only called for “an immediate cessation of violence”. Some media commented that Kishida failed to put pressure on India.
latest situation in Russia and Ukraine
The situation in Russia and Ukraine continued to evolve. Although the two sides are still negotiating, there is no ceasefire.
according to the global network on March 20, Agence France Presse reported that Russia said it launched hypersonic missiles into Ukraine again. “The dagger air defense missile system equipped with hypersonic ballistic missiles destroyed a large fuel and lubricating oil storage site of the Ukrainian armed forces near the konstantinovka settlement in Nikolayev region,” the Russian Ministry of Defense said on the 20th According to Tass News Agency on the 19th, the Russian armed forces used the “dagger” hypersonic missile launch system to destroy a large underground missile and Aviation Ammunition Depot of the Ukrainian army in Ivano frankovsk state on the 18th. Russian experts commented at that time that this was the first time in human history that hypersonic weapons were used in actual combat
In terms of the progress of the Russian Ukrainian negotiations, according to Reuters quoting Turkey’s “Daily News” on the 20th, Turkish Foreign Minister chavusholu said on the same day that Russia and Ukraine were close to agreement on key issues of the agreement.
Chavusholu said in an interview on Sunday (20th) that Russia and Ukraine are close to reaching agreement on key issues of the agreement, and some issues are close to reaching agreement. He believes that if the current progress of the negotiations continues, Russia and Ukraine are expected to achieve a ceasefire.
According to the Russian satellite news agency reported on the 20th, Turkey expressed its willingness to host a meeting between the leaders of Russia and Ukraine in the capital Ankara. Previously, Turkey has repeatedly proposed to host the dialogue meeting between Russian and Ukrainian leaders, and the alternative locations are Ankara and Istanbul.
how is the market going this week
Under the interpretation of various complex situations, how will the market interpret this week?
First of all, from the perspective of the external market, it can still be said to be warm. After the Fed raised interest rates, the dollar began to weaken and US stocks strengthened again. The trend of the Middle East market opened on Sunday was also relatively strong, and the Israeli stock market rose 2% at one time. The FTSE China A50 Index was also strongly bullish. China concept stocks soared again, which means that the Hang Seng technology index on Monday is still promising and drives the strength of Chinese stocks.
Secondly, from the perspective of market structure, there are many good things about real estate this weekend: the transaction volume of second-hand houses in Zhengzhou is obvious, and the mortgage interest rate in Hubei is reduced, which is conducive to the further repair of the real estate sector and the further stabilization of the financial sector with high correlation with real estate.
Third, from the perspective of market expectations, the most important thing on Monday is the trend of LPR. At present, the market’s expectation is that the one-year LPR may be flat, while the five-year LPR may decline, because this will be more conducive to the release of real estate credit.
If this expectation is realized, the market will have the possibility of further deduction.
Northeast Securities Co.Ltd(000686) pointed out that the current external risks have been significantly reduced, the bottom of profit is highly likely to appear under steady growth, and the bottom of the market is close. The molecular end profit is expected to rise, the micro liquidity and risk appetite will be repaired, the short-term rebound will continue, and the medium-term market bottom is taking shape.
Several rounds of financial policy meetings have been held to ease the deterioration of the market. Compared with the “policy bottom” in 2018, the current market position is high and the decline time is short. From the perspective of micro liquidity, capital inflow is not strong, and the outflow pressure of allocated foreign capital is still worthy of attention. At present, some medium-term concerns remain unresolved, such as the bottom of the economy and corporate profits, global inflation and the Fed’s interest rate hike, and the repeated impact of the epidemic on the recovery the medium-term view of the market has changed from cautious to neutral, and the short-term view is optimistic. However, we should have reasonable expectations for the follow-up space of the rebound, focusing on grasping the structure
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