On the 21st, the A-share market continued to recover. As of midday closing, the three major stock indexes were red, more than 3000 stocks in the two cities rose, and the sectors of agriculture, real estate and medicine rebounded significantly.
Public offering research and judgment pointed out that at present, A-Shares are in a short-term rebound period. With the continuous development of the "stable growth" policy, it is expected to usher in a new round of credit cycle and profit cycle. After the bottom stabilizes, it is currently a good "seeding" node, "value return" and "marginal improvement" are the two important directions of the layout.
a new round of profit cycle is expected to start
As of the midday closing on the 21st, the agricultural sector was stronger in shock, Fujian Wanchen Biotechnology Co.Ltd(300972) up by 20.03% Beijing Shunxin Agriculture Co.Ltd(000860) word limit, up 10% Hainan Shennong Technology Co.Ltd(300189) , Xinjiang Sayram Modern Agriculture Co.Ltd(600540) and other stocks rose one after another. In addition, real estate, medicine, food processing and other sectors rebounded significantly.
According to Wang Hao, a public offering investment researcher in South China, after the Fed's interest rate hike was implemented, the external situation has eased. The main factors affecting the market since the beginning of the year have been basically price in. Wang Hao said that in the next period of time, the market is expected to return to the dominant pattern of fundamentals and maintain the upward trend of bottom shock. One year's plan lies in spring. After stabilizing at the bottom, it is currently a good "spring sowing" node.
China Merchants Fund said that at present, the A-share market is in the period of short-term rebound, and the impact of external short-term impact may have passed. Under the trend of "steady growth" policy, the market is expected to usher in a new round of credit cycle and profit cycle.
"If the expectation is stable, the market will naturally be stable. After a period of concentrated risk release, at present, many high-quality assets have the value of long-term allocation." Changjiang Xiangyang, director of Boshi fund, pointed out that the current risk aversion in the A-share market has been alleviated to a considerable extent. At this moment, we need to strengthen confidence and actively distribute high-quality stock assets in accordance with the long-term investment idea. China's economy is still a fertile land for a large number of investment opportunities, which will continue to bring investment opportunities to the stock market. In the next one to two years, the A-share market will probably provide a relatively good return on investment.
outstanding investment cost performance
Huang Biao, fund manager of Jinxin fund, pointed out that up to now, the valuation of A-Shares has fallen back to the lower position of the past years, and many targets have been in an oversold state. With the easing of market sentiment and the gradual improvement of expectations, the market is expected to usher in a substantial repair market. At present, the strength of new and old infrastructure projects is gradually increasing, and the follow-up measures with greater strength are expected to continue to be introduced.
Jingshun Great Wall Fund pointed out that the current A-share valuation level has entered the area of historically low or high value. After the correction of some popular sectors with high early valuation, the valuation pressure has also been greatly relieved. The valuation of many high-quality companies has been quite attractive, and the long-term allocation value is prominent. "With the steady and uncertain trend of overseas investment in A-Shares and the return of long-term policy, the basic development force of A-Shares will remain unchanged."
"The previous sharp market adjustment has reflected the irrational sentiment of the market. At present, the overall cost performance of the A-share market is prominent. The equity premium implied by the main stock indexes is close to the end of 2018, and the subsequent downward space is limited." Penghua Fund said that the short-term trend of A-Shares is expected to stabilize, and the medium and long-term trend depends on China's economic growth and industrial trend. Subsequently, with the introduction of more intensive steady growth policies, the implementation of more active market guidance policies, and the mitigation of epidemic prevention and control, the A-share market will gradually come out of the shadow of sharp decline. At present, it is the time point for careful selection and layout.
two major structural opportunities
In terms of sector layout, China Merchants Fund pointed out that at present, investment opportunities can be arranged around the two areas of "confidence recovery" and "wrong killing". Specifically, the field of "confidence recovery" includes areas with potential support for policy development, including infrastructure, real estate related industrial chains (banking, building materials, construction, etc.), and difficult reversal sectors such as catering, tourism and aviation; The "wrong killing" field includes the growth and manufacturing sector with more recent adjustments but still high prosperity, including new energy vehicles, new energy and technology hardware semiconductors. In addition, from a medium-term perspective, it is suggested to pay attention to the theme of inflation and relevant sectors whose business cycle is independent of the economic cycle, such as upstream resource products and pig cycle.
Qu Quanru, fund manager of noan new power hybrid fund, said that since 2022, the market style has changed significantly, and many changes have taken place in the macro environment outside China. On the whole, on the basis of appropriately lowering the income expectation in 2022, we can look for structural investment opportunities in the two directions of "value return" and "marginal improvement".
"After experiencing the extreme growth market in 2021, the investment cost performance of value assets will gradually highlight in 2022. There will be excess returns for mass consumption, optional consumption and some pharmaceutical segments. At the same time, under the tone of" steady economic growth ", industries such as' double carbon 'and real estate will also bring investment opportunities and become an important part of the structural market in 2022." Qu Quanru said.
