Since the second half of last year, affected by multiple factors, the real estate market has shown a downward trend. Since the beginning of this year, all parties have made joint efforts to stabilize land prices, house prices and expectations. The property market has shown a trend of stabilization and recovery. At present, the market differentiation trend is obvious.
Recently, the Finance Committee of the State Council held a special meeting and proposed that real estate enterprises should timely study and put forward effective risk prevention and resolution response plans, and put forward supporting measures for the transformation to a new development model. Subsequently, the people’s Bank of China, the China Securities Regulatory Commission, the China Banking and Insurance Regulatory Commission, the State Administration of foreign exchange and other departments also successively released positive signals. Experts believe that the statements of the financial commission of the State Council and relevant departments and the relevant measures to be issued will play an important supporting role in stabilizing the expectations of the real estate market and promoting the steady and healthy development of the market.
asymmetric recovery pattern appears
Recently, the National Bureau of statistics released the changes in the sales prices of commercial houses in 70 large and medium-sized cities in February. According to Sheng Guoqing, chief statistician of the city Department of the National Bureau of statistics, the sales prices of new commercial houses and second-hand houses in first tier cities increased month on month, while those in second and third tier cities remained unchanged or decreased month on month; The year-on-year increase in the sales price of commercial housing in the first and second tier cities fell or flat, and the year-on-year decrease in the third tier cities.
Wang Ruimin, an associate researcher of the market economy Research Institute of the development research center of the State Council, believes that the house price data of 70 large and medium-sized cities in February show that the market is generally showing signs of recovery. The real estate market in the first tier cities is the wind vane of the national market. The recovery of the first tier cities is expected to gradually stabilize the real estate market in the second and third tier cities.
Xu Xiaole, chief market analyst of Shell Research Institute, believes that the market price showed an asymmetric recovery pattern in February. The price recovery of first tier cities exceeded that of second and third tier cities, the month on month increase of second-hand housing price indexes in Beijing and Shanghai expanded, the decline stopped in Guangzhou and turned to rise, and the decline narrowed in Shenzhen; Second and third tier cities second-hand housing prices are still down month on month. The average month on month decline of new house prices in 70 cities was slightly larger than that in January, which was mainly affected by the insufficient recovery of the property market in second and third tier cities.
reasonable demand remains to be released
According to the February financial data statistical report released by the people’s Bank of China, the medium and long-term loans of the household sector decreased by 45.9 billion yuan year-on-year. Industry insiders generally believe that this reflects the low willingness of residents to buy houses. At the same time, it also shows that to promote the steady and healthy development of the real estate market, we still need to further release the reasonable housing demand.
Since this year, many cities have introduced or adjusted specific control measures according to the actual situation to meet the reasonable housing needs of home buyers. Including relaxing purchase restrictions, canceling “house and loan recognition”, reducing the proportion of down payment, increasing the loan amount of provident fund, giving house purchase subsidies, providing support for talent house purchase, etc.
Wang Ruimin believes that the current real estate market risk has not been completely cleared, the rescue of some enterprises is still in progress, the industry is still in the period of in-depth adjustment, and it will take time for market confidence to repair. In some cities, the expectation of rising house prices has weakened, the “fake” demand for speculative house purchase has rapidly withdrawn, the just needed group has turned to “wait-and-see”, and the sales volume has shrunk. Policies are needed to help restore market confidence and avoid the risk of a hard landing in the real estate market.
Xu Xiaole believes that the housing demand in the first tier cities is relatively sufficient, and the market is expected to repair quickly with the support of credit; The demand for house purchase in the second and third tier cities is relatively insufficient. At the same time, most of the third tier cities have great inventory pressure, and the market is expected to repair slowly. Although the policies of reducing down payment, lowering settlement threshold and issuing house purchase subsidies have been mainly concentrated in second and third tier cities since this year, the effect of the policy still needs some time, and the release of housing demand should be further effectively stimulated. In addition, the demand side confidence has not been fully restored. Since March, the epidemic situation in some cities has been repeated, which has also brought uncertainty to the market.
Fu Linghui, spokesman of the National Bureau of statistics, said that there had been positive changes in the operation of the real estate market and the downward trend had been slowed down. From the perspective of real estate production index, the real estate production index decreased year-on-year in the first two months, but the decline was narrowing. The “government work report” proposes to adhere to the positioning that houses are used for living rather than speculation, and support the commercial housing market to better meet the reasonable housing needs of buyers. “We believe that the steady development of the real estate market is still based and conditional”.
policy helps stabilize market expectations
Recently, several departments have made statements on the operation of the real estate market. The central bank said, “preventing real estate market risks”; The cbcirc said, “actively promote the transformation of the development mode of the real estate industry, encourage institutions to carry out M & A loans in a stable and orderly manner, and focus on supporting high-quality real estate enterprises to merge and acquire high-quality projects of difficult real estate enterprises”; The CSRC said, “actively cooperate with relevant departments to effectively resolve the risks of real estate enterprises”; The State Administration of foreign exchange said, “cooperate with relevant departments to promote the healthy and stable development of the real estate market”.
Dong ximiao, chief researcher of Zhaolian finance, believes that in the future, real estate financial policies should be further adjusted and optimized to meet the normal financing needs of real estate enterprises and reasonable housing consumption needs. At present, local governments and financial institutions should be supported to adjust real estate financial policies, especially housing credit policies, under the circumstances of abundant liquidity and falling capital costs.
More importantly, we should further explore a new development model of real estate, adhere to the simultaneous development of rental and purchase, accelerate the development of long-term rental housing market and promote the construction of indemnificatory housing. Financial institutions should take this opportunity to accelerate the optimization of the real estate financial business structure, develop and innovate products and services for the housing rental market, and increase support and services for the housing rental market.
Xu Xiaole believes that the resolution of the risks of real estate enterprises requires the coordination of the government, real estate enterprises and financial institutions to reallocate funds and resources in the industry. It should also create conditions for some real estate enterprises to exit or transform in an orderly manner.
A few days ago, the relevant person in charge of the Ministry of Finance said in response to the media’s questions about the pilot of real estate tax reform that “the pilot of real estate tax reform is carried out in accordance with the authorization of the Standing Committee of the National People’s Congress. Some cities have carried out investigation and preliminary research, but considering all aspects, they do not have the conditions to expand the pilot cities of real estate tax reform this year”.
Industry insiders believe that the scheme and nodes for the pilot expansion of real estate tax in the market adjustment stage have attracted wide attention, and the statement of the Ministry of finance has a very positive effect on stabilizing market expectations.
