"The opportunity in the window period of electrification transformation will be fleeting, and enterprises must seize the opportunity to follow up the changes. With the development of the automotive industry, China's automotive power system has experienced the process of following and running together, and has now reached a local leading state. Hybrid power is the key technical route of diversified drive system and an indispensable means for the automotive industry to achieve the goal of 'double carbon'."
On March 18, Wang Ruiping, senior vice president of Geely Automobile Group, chairman of passenger vehicle powertrain Professional Committee of China Gas Turbine Industry Association and chairman of automobile advanced powertrain branch, said at the 2022 International Summit Forum on vehicle powertrain.
Wang Ruiping pointed out that although the industry authorities' assessment of the contribution of hybrid and electric vehicles to reducing carbon emissions is somewhat different, they have the same view on greatly reducing carbon emissions of fuel vehicles. At the same time, the travel experience of hybrid power is also more in line with the actual needs of Chinese consumers.
At the Forum on the same day, a number of experts from the industry and academia also said that under the background of the rise in the price of power battery raw materials and crude oil, the current hybrid oil and electricity is not only an environment-friendly scheme in the process of industry transformation, but also an indispensable means for the automobile industry to meet the "carbon reduction" standard.
breaking the "double carbon" situation, car enterprises rush to the hybrid market
In 2020, China officially put forward the development goal of "striving to peak carbon dioxide emissions by 2030 and strive to achieve carbon neutrality by 2060". As one of China's important carbon emission sources, the transportation sector is highly dependent on the combustion of fossil fuels in mobile terminals, resulting in a large carbon dioxide emission base and difficult emission reduction.
According to the data, in 2020, China's carbon emission in the field of transportation was 930 million tons, accounting for 15% of the country's terminal carbon emission, which is the third largest carbon emission source after industry and construction. In the whole transportation field, road traffic carbon emissions account for 90%, of which road passenger transport accounts for 42%, and 90% comes from passenger cars; Road freight accounts for 45%, mainly the emissions from freight trucks; Other means of transport emit less, such as aviation and ships account for about 6% and railways account for about 1%.
The industry believes that the development of hybrid power system is an important guarantee for achieving carbon peak in the transportation field in 2030.
On the other hand, the roadmap 2.0 of energy saving and new energy vehicle technology points out that in 2035, the total carbon emission will decrease by more than 20% compared with the peak value, 100% of traditional energy power will be transformed into more energy-saving hybrid power, and new energy vehicles and hybrid power account for 50% of new car sales respectively.
As hybrid electric vehicles are becoming a key area of the current development of new energy vehicles, in recent years, Chinese brands have shown an overall upward trend in the field of power system R & D. Chinese car enterprises, including Chang'an, Byd Company Limited(002594) , great wall, have significantly strengthened their investment in the R & D and industrialization of hybrid electric vehicles.
\u3000\u3000 "The new energy transformation under the ecological goal focuses on the electrification transformation of the power system. The technological innovation of the hybrid system has also accelerated the high thermal efficiency of the engine. Taking the thermal efficiency of the engine as an example, for each percentage point increase in the thermal efficiency, the fuel saving rate of the whole vehicle can be improved by 2.5%. In the past few years, independent brands have invested a lot of resources in the research and development of hybrid power. In 2021, major vehicle enterprises have launched new energy-saving technologies one after another Type hybrid system. " Wang Ruiping said.
With the development of automobile industry, the R & D and manufacturing of vehicle power system in China has experienced the process of following and parallel running. At present, it has reached a local leading state. In recent years, Chinese brands have shown an overall upward trend in the field of power system R & D, and many car companies have been at the forefront of the world. In the field of hybrid special engines, the thermal efficiency of power brands such as Geely and Byd Company Limited(002594) has exceeded 41%, highlighting the world leading position of China's engine R & D level, sweeping away the impression that traditional technology lags behind people, and greatly improving the image of Chinese brands. In the exploration of energy diversification, Geely, Hongqi and other brands have gradually solved the technical problems of methanol and hydrogen fuel in the application of internal combustion engine.
It is understood that on October 31 last year, Geely Automobile officially released Raytheon power and the modular intelligent hybrid platform Raytheon Zhiqing hi · X.
Raytheon hi · X has the effect of carbon emission reduction in the whole life cycle, with thermal efficiency of 43.32% and fuel saving rate of more than 40%. It includes 1.5td/2.0td hybrid special engine and DHT / DHT Pro hybrid special transmission. It supports full coverage of a0-c models and covers HEV, PHEV, reev and other hybrid technologies. In the next three years, it will provide a variety of power combinations including strong hybrid, long-life plug-in hybrid and extended range hybrid, which will be carried on more than 20 models of Geely, Lingke and other brands.
rising prices of raw materials may affect the trend of Electrification Technology
"From the perspective of the overall environment, the rapid rise of battery raw materials since last year has interrupted the declining trend of new energy costs for many years, or will trigger the electrification scheme to change the path and develop in the direction of 'sustainable cost reduction'." Wang Ruiping said.
Among them, the price of lithium carbonate has broken through from less than 50000 yuan per ton to 500000 yuan per ton, while the impact on the battery cost is about 50-100 yuan per kilowatt hour for every 100000 yuan increase in the price of raw materials. The rise of lithium carbonate to 500000 yuan per ton means that the power battery increases by 250500 yuan per kilowatt hour; The price of nickel metal, one of the main cathode materials of batteries, has also increased significantly recently. In recent days, it has exceeded US $100000 per ton, which means that the cost of batteries has to rise by at least 30%.
Affected by these cost rising factors, a number of auto companies, including Tesla, gac-e'an, geometry automobile, Chery Automobile, Xiaopeng automobile, Weima automobile, Zero run automobile, Byd Company Limited(002594) automobile, etc., have announced the price rise of electric vehicles recently. Previously, Euler black and white cats, which suffered losses due to the rise of raw material prices, even stopped receiving orders.
"There is also the recent rise in the price of crude oil. Within a year, the international crude oil price has exceeded US $135 from US $64 per barrel. Especially in the recent week, it has increased by 35%. The cost pressure of customers' oil has increased sharply, and the market will be more eager for the introduction of fuel-saving technology." Wang Ruiping said that hybrid power will release the pressure of the market on the price rise of fuel and raw materials.
On the one hand, the rise in the price of raw materials will increase the cost of batteries, and the market weight of hybrid models will rise. The cost of hybrid battery is only half or less than 1 / 4 of that of pure electric vehicle; On the other hand, it has the advantages of long endurance and convenient energy supplement, and the hybrid model has no mileage anxiety.
"Hybrid power is an effective electrification path that is more in line with the actual state of current energy and has the dual needs of market and environment." Wang Ruiping said.
At present, hybrid also has obvious advantages in technology, which not only drives the upgrading and emission reduction of fuel vehicles accounting for the majority of market demand, but also helps to promote the development of electrification technology; In terms of software, the hybrid control system covers the control modules of special vehicles and electric vehicles, and can also realize the technology sharing of hybrid and pure electric.
"The transformation road of the enterprise should be from hybrid electric to comprehensive transformation of electrification, which is also the advantage of car enterprises with historical heritage." Wang Ruiping pointed out.
However, facing the goal of "double carbon", some experts believe that the challenge of independent innovation of the new power system industry chain in the future is still arduous, especially the synergy between the material industry and the chip industry is the core technology that should be paid attention to in the future.
