This week, the A-share market was depressed first and then raised. The Shanghai stock index hit the bottom and rebounded after dropping 3023.3 points on March 16. The three major indexes rose sharply in the last three trading days. At the same time, under the sharp decline of the market, there was a net outflow of 10 billion yuan for two consecutive days. With the stabilization and rebound of the market, the north capital also changed from outflow to inflow. On Thursday and Friday, the net inflow of north capital was 5.365 billion yuan and 8.457 billion yuan respectively. In the face of such changes, how will the A-share market respond?
YueKai Securities said that at present, the end of the policy has been gradually established, the implementation has begun to increase, and the external environment has a phased easing trend. From the strength comparison between the long and short sides, many parties slowly have the energy to fight back, coupled with the current low valuation of a shares, so we believe that we can be more active in the future, layout shocks and repair the market. It is suggested to grasp the investment opportunity from the main line of policy force and performance certainty.
China International Capital Corporation Limited(601995) said that after the previous adjustment, the valuation of A-Shares has returned to the relatively low level in history. This week, the corresponding valuation level of the phased low of 3023 points of the Shanghai stock index has been close to the relatively extreme bottom period in history. Recently, the net reduction scale of major shareholders and executives has been significantly narrowed, and the scale and quantity of repurchase of the company have increased. Although there are still repeated risks in the short term, there is no need to be overly pessimistic about the future performance of a shares. In the near future, the market may be in the bottom grinding period, the trading volume may shrink, and the stage similar to the sharp decline in the early stage may have ended.
Guotai Junan Securities Co.Ltd(601211) Securities said that since March, the A-share market fluctuated violently until it stabilized and rebounded last week and entered the stage of repair and consolidation. At present, investment still needs to focus on the low-risk direction, look for investment opportunities in subdivided fields from the perspective of new and old energy reform and improving the voice of core science and technology, and be optimistic about the thematic directions such as household photovoltaic, new digital infrastructure, military / semiconductor new materials and so on.
Haitong Securities Company Limited(600837) believes that this year is similar to the volatile market in 2012 in terms of macroeconomic and stock market rise and fall cycles. Of course, the details of high and low points are different. The three negative factors that fell at the beginning of the year have changed slightly, and the steady growth is expected to drive the pit filling market. Follow the main line of steady growth, growth attack, such as photovoltaic wind power, data center cloud computing, and focus on financial real estate in the field of value.
China Merchants Securities Co.Ltd(600999) believes that since 2005, A-Shares have experienced seven historical bottoms, almost every time in the environment of liquidity contraction, downward earnings and external liquidity pressure. Referring to historical experience, when the excess liquidity turns positive, the growth rate of new social finance accelerates and improves, the valuation drops to a historical low, the margin of external liquidity improves, the transaction downturn, the turnover rate decreases significantly, and the K line is a w combination, it is mostly the signal of the bottom of the market. At present, A-Shares have gradually seen multiple bottom signals. In the future, with the accelerated improvement of new social finance, the easing of external negative factors, and the significant decline of turnover rate and transaction amount, A-Shares are expected to usher in the starting point of a new round of upward cycle.
China Securities Co.Ltd(601066) Securities said that heavy conferences such as the financial commission of the State Council were held one after another, marking the end of the current round of decline policy, the restoration of market confidence and the alleviation of liquidity deterioration. Compared with the “policy bottom” in 2018, the current market position is high and the decline time is short. Our medium-term view of the market has changed from cautious to neutral, and we are optimistic in the short term, but we should have reasonable expectations for the follow-up space of the rebound, mainly structural market.
Citic Securities Company Limited(600030) believes that internal and external anxiety factors are fully clear, and the venting of irrational emotions is over; The overall economic situation is stable, and the impact of follow-up precise epidemic control measures on the economy will gradually weaken; The implementation of overseas interest rate hikes and the conflict between Russia and Ukraine are becoming clearer, and the negative impact has been weakened; The A-share market returns to normal and grasps the resonant rising market of value growth.
Financial highlights this week
\u3000\u30001. The CSRC made a strong voice that the key system of public offering REITs will make new progress
Recently, the China Securities Regulatory Commission issued an article entitled “further promoting the pilot of public offering REITs and further promoting the virtuous circle of investment and financing”. The article said that the CSRC “is studying and formulating the rules for raising infrastructure REITs” and “is studying and promoting the pilot work of affordable rental housing REITs with relevant ministries and commissions to promote the implementation of the project as soon as possible”. As an important pole of global assets, institutions generally predict that the potential scale of China’s public offering REITs market is more than trillion yuan.
\u3000\u30002. The securities industry’s disguised “RRR reduction” is expected to release about 20 billion yuan
According to the news of China Securities Depository and Clearing Co., Ltd. on March 17, in order to implement the spirit of the special meeting of the financial commission of the State Council, reduce the cost of market funds and serve the healthy development of the real economy, China Clearing, in cooperation with the ongoing DVP reform, has reduced the payment proportion of the minimum settlement reserve for stock business from 18% to 16% since April 2022. According to relevant estimates, about 20 billion yuan is expected to be released.
Market review this week
\u3000\u30001. A-share market
This week (March 14-18, the same below), the A-share market hit the bottom and stabilized, the Shanghai stock index returned to 3200 points, and the three major indexes rose in the last three trading days. The Shanghai Composite Index and Shenzhen composite index fell by 1.77% and 0.95% respectively this week, while the gem index rose by 1.81%.
From the perspective of Shenwan industry, only four industries rose this week, among which the cumulative weekly increases of real estate, non bank finance, medicine and biology exceeded 1%. In addition, steel, public utilities, environmental protection, coal, food and beverage, commerce and retail, textile and clothing and other seven industry indexes led the decline, with a cumulative weekly decline of more than 3%.
In terms of funds, on March 17, the net outflow of northbound funds for 8 consecutive days finally ended, with a total net inflow of 5.364 billion yuan; On March 18, northbound capital bought a net 8.457 billion yuan. In that week, the accumulated net sales of northbound funds were 16.692 billion yuan, with a net outflow in the first three days and a return to the market in the next two days.
In terms of the top ten stocks with active transactions, this week, 11 stocks achieved net purchase of funds from northbound, Midea Group Co.Ltd(000333) , China Merchants Bank Co.Ltd(600036) and other three stocks, and the net purchase amount of funds from northbound exceeded 1 billion yuan. In addition, the net selling amount of Kweichow Moutai Co.Ltd(600519) , Yunnan Energy New Material Co.Ltd(002812) , Contemporary Amperex Technology Co.Limited(300750) , Wuliangye Yibin Co.Ltd(000858) , China stock market news, Inner Mongolia Yili Industrial Group Co.Ltd(600887) and other stocks by northbound capital exceeded 1 billion yuan.
Table: Trading of top 10 active stocks traded in Shanghai and Shenzhen Stock connect this week (March 14-18) p align = “center” prepared by Ren Shibi
At the same time, statistics show that 27 stocks will face lifting the ban next week. According to the latest closing price, the total lifting market value is 215709 billion yuan. Among them, there are three shares whose market value exceeds 10 billion yuan, namely Wanhua Chemical Group Co.Ltd(600309) , Ginlong Technologies Co.Ltd(300763) , Yunnan Botanee Bio-Technology Group Co.Ltd(300957) . The largest scale of lifting the ban is Wanhua Chemical Group Co.Ltd(600309) , and 1.716 billion shares will be listed and circulated next week, mainly the placement of shares by private placement institutions. The market value of lifting the ban reaches 139201 billion yuan.
\u3000\u30002. Hong Kong Stock Market:
On Friday, the Hang Seng Index fell 1.61% to 2055379; Hang Seng technology index fell 4.28% to 424697 points; The Hang Seng SOE index fell 2.69% to 7060.6. This week, the Hang Seng Index fell 6.17%; The Hang Seng technology index fell by 10.36% and the Hang Seng state-owned enterprises index fell by 8.15%.
\u3000\u30003. Overseas market: p align = “center” the figure shows the market data on Friday
The Dow Jones index rose 5.50% this week to 3475493 points; The NASDAQ index rose 8.18% this week to 1389384; The S & P 500 rose 6.16% to 446312 this week. All three indexes had their best week performance since the week ending November 6, 2020.
This week, European stocks closed higher across the board. Germany’s DAX index rose 5.76% to 1441309 points, France’s CAC40 index rose 5.75% to 662024 points, and Britain’s FTSE 100 index rose 3.48% to 740473 points.
