The Fed’s interest rate hike in March was basically in line with market expectations. The follow-up focus is on the range of interest rate hike from May to June and the time to start the table contraction. When these factors are implemented or once the tightening attitude of the Fed eases, the US dollar index and US bond yield are expected to peak and fall. At present, the valuation of the A-share market has reached near the lowest position in history, and the meeting of the financial committee has revived market confidence and formed a short-term phased bottom. It is suggested that investors should layout the upstream links that benefit from the steady growth policy. When the growth rate of new social finance accelerates and improves and external factors ease, A-Shares are expected to usher in the starting point of a new round of upward cycle.
core views
[observing policies and discussing the market] after the Fed’s interest rate hike is implemented, how do all kinds of assets go 1) the Fed’s interest rate meeting in March is basically in line with market expectations. At present, the market has reflected the Fed’s expectation of raising interest rates seven times in the year. The follow-up focus is on the range of interest rate increase from May to June and the time of table reduction; Once the US inflation falls or the economic data is less than expected, the number of interest rate increases by the Federal Reserve may be lower than expected, and the US bond yield and US dollar index are expected to peak and fall. 2) At present, the valuation of A-Shares has reached near the lowest level in history, and the recent financial committee meeting and various parts have expressed their position to revive market confidence, which plays an important supporting role in stabilizing and rebounding the market, and a phased bottom has been formed. However, the improvement of investors’ expectations for Fundamentals needs to be verified after the growth rate of new social finance, especially the acceleration and improvement of medium and long-term social finance. We expect that the further improvement of social finance data will be confirmed from mid April to mid May, which will gradually strengthen the key driving force at the bottom of a shares, and the probability of seeing the bottom of A-Shares will be increased when the yield of 10-year US bonds reaches the top and falls. 3) At present, the trend of “demand comes from steady growth and profits go upstream” is very obvious. We suggest investors to layout the upstream links that benefit from the steady growth policy, and will have a better performance in the coming quarterly report quarter.
[resumption of trading · internal view] most indexes in the A-share market fell this week, but most indexes showed a V-shaped reversal during the week 1) the rapid decline in the early stage caused negative feedback on the capital side of the stock market; 2) Recently, the pressure on epidemic control in some parts of China has increased significantly, and the number of new diagnoses has increased significantly; 3) On March 16, the financial stability and Development Commission of the State Council held a special meeting. There were many stable statements of confidence in China concept shares and platform economic governance, as well as important statements on China’s industrial policy, which significantly boosted market confidence.
[meso · boom] 2 platform stock IC design, IC manufacturing, memory, silicon wafer, PCB, led and other manufacturers’ revenue continued to rise year-on-year, some growth narrowed, and some panel and lens manufacturers’ revenue decreased year-on-year. From January to February, the cumulative year-on-year growth rate of industrial added value of TMT manufacturing industry narrowed slightly, and the year-on-year growth rate of fixed asset investment expanded In 2 months, the automobile production and sales remained stable on the whole, and continued to grow year-on-year. The production and sales of new energy vehicles continued to maintain a high growth rate year-on-year. From January to February, the year-on-year growth rate of industrial Siasun Robot&Automation Co.Ltd(300024) output narrowed this week, the prices of billet, rebar and iron ore fell; The cement price index of the whole country and the Yangtze River, North China, East China, southwest, central and southern China rose.
[capital · numerous and few] northbound capital has made great progress and ETF has been redeemed greatly northward capital outflow of 16.69 billion yuan this week; The total net outflow of financing funds in the first four trading days was 19.55 billion yuan; 2.99 billion partial equity public funds were newly established, down 4.09 billion from the previous period; ETF net redemption, corresponding to a net outflow of 6.79 billion yuan. In terms of industry preference, the higher net purchase scale of northward capital is agriculture, forestry, animal husbandry and fishery, mechanical equipment, household appliances, etc; Only a small net purchase of financing funds in medicine and biology, non bank finance, textile and clothing, etc; New energy & Intelligent Vehicle ETF has more subscription and securities companies have more ETF redemption. The scale of net reduction of important shareholders is reduced; The scale of planned reduction decreased.
[theme · wind direction] this week’s industrial observation – green building planning release, it is suggested to pay attention to building energy conservation and distributed photovoltaic with the release of the 14th five year plan for green buildings and building energy efficiency and other relevant policies, we believe that green buildings will continue to develop at a high speed. We suggest paying attention to the industrial chains of installed buildings and building distributed photovoltaic, green building materials and so on.
[data · valuation] the valuation level of all A-Shares this week is lower than that of last week pe (TTM) declined 0.2x to 14.6x, which is in the 38.3% quantile of historical valuation level. The valuation of the sector rose and fell. Among them, the valuation of the communication sector rose more, and the electrical equipment sector fell significantly.
risk tip: the policy strength is less than expected, and the US dollar has appreciated significantly
01 p align = “center” policy · on the market – after the Fed’s interest rate hike is implemented, how do all kinds of assets go
※ the core content of the Federal Reserve’s interest rate meeting in March
This week, the Federal Reserve held a march interest rate meeting. The core contents and changes mainly include the following contents:
1. About raising interest rates: the Federal Reserve decided to raise interest rates by 25bp, which is in line with previous market expectations, and the dot matrix indicates that interest rates may be increased seven times in the whole year
The Federal Reserve officially opened this round of interest rate increase cycle, and the rate increase of 25bp is in line with market expectations. From the perspective of the dot matrix of the Fed’s expectation of raising interest rates, the officials of this interest rate meeting have significantly advanced their expectation of raising interest rates. Most Fed officials predict that the benchmark interest rate will rise to the central level of 1.9% at the end of the year. If calculated according to the single rate increase range of 25bp, it means that interest rates will be increased six times in the year, which is consistent with Powell’s statement that “every FOMC meeting this year is likely to raise interest rates” at the previous hearing. However, there are still differences on the range of subsequent single interest rate hikes. Some hawkish Fed officials said that the Fed may need to raise interest rates by at least 50 basis points in the coming months.
2. About shrinking the table: the shrinking table may be opened in May
At the previous interest rate meeting, the Federal Reserve revealed that “after the process of raising the target range of the federal funds rate is started, it will begin to reduce the size of the Federal Reserve’s balance sheet, and the pace of reduction may be faster”.
According to the statement of the March meeting, the table will be reduced at an upcoming meeting, and the probability of table reduction will increase in May. However, at present, the details of the discussion on the reduction of the table have not been disclosed, and more clues need to be found from the subsequent published meeting minutes.
3. About economic expectations: the US economy is strong, and the conflict between Russia and Ukraine increases short-term inflationary pressure
According to the statement of the meeting, the Federal Reserve believes that the US economic activity and employment performance are strong, and the impact of the Russian Ukrainian conflict on the US economy is highly uncertain. In the short term, it will cause additional upward pressure on inflation and drag down economic activities. SEP shows that compared with the forecast in December, the Federal Reserve lowered its economic growth forecast for 2022 (4% → 2.8%), raised its inflation forecast for 2022 (PCE: 2.6% → 4.3%; core PCE: 2.7% → 4.1%), and the unemployment rate is expected to be flat at 3.5%. Powell said at the press conference that although the economic growth rate of 2.8% is expected to be lower than last year, it still means strong economic growth, and the risk of recession in the United States has not increased. From this point of view, such relatively optimistic economic expectations are the basis for the Federal Reserve to tighten monetary policy.
generally speaking, the Federal Reserve’s interest rate meeting in March basically met market expectations. Based on the judgment that the economy and employment continued to be strong, the Federal Reserve has started a new round of interest rate hikes. It is expected to raise interest rates seven times during the year, and the possibility of raising interest rates by 50bp at a meeting from May to June is not ruled out; In May, the probability of opening the scale reduction increased. Pay attention to the more details about the scale reduction that may be disclosed in the subsequent meeting minutes
※ fed interest rate hike landing, how do all kinds of assets go?
after the fed interest rate meeting, the response of the stock and bond market was relatively flat, mainly because the market had responded to the expectation of raising interest rates to a large extent U.S. bond yields rose rapidly during the session, but then fell, with 5-year U.S. bond yields rising slightly and 10-year U.S. bond yields rising and falling. The US dollar index fell and the RMB appreciated against the US dollar. With the progress of the conflict between Russia and Ukraine, the market’s inflation concerns decreased, and Powell’s speech alleviated the concerns of economic recession, US stocks rose.
at present, the probability of the Fed raising interest rates seven times this year implied in the futures market has increased to 91.6% among them, the mainstream expectation of the Fed’s interest rate increase in May is still 25bp, with an expected probability of 68.3%; The probability of raising interest rates by 50bp in May is expected to be 31.7%.
in the past two rounds of interest rate hikes by the Federal Reserve, US bond yields first fell and then rose, and the interest rate hike range as a whole rose during the first round of interest rate hikes (2004 / 6 / 302006 / 6 / 29), the yield of 10-year US bonds rose by 52bp; During the second round of interest rate hikes, the yield of 10-year US bonds rose by 49bp In the process of the second round of interest rate hike, the Federal Reserve started to shrink the table two years after the start of interest rate hike (October 2017), and then the US bond yield showed a state of further accelerating upward. However, within one month after the two interest rate hike cycles, with the expected landing of interest rate hikes, US bond yields fell exchange rate: in the past two rounds of interest rate hikes, the US dollar index rose within one month after the interest rate hike and the contraction, but the US dollar index fell during the whole process of interest rate hike
At present, the market has included the expectation that the Fed will raise interest rates seven times this year. However, whether the Fed can really raise interest rates seven times this year depends on the level of inflation and the economic situation in the United States. If the CPI data peaked and fell with the increase of the inflation base, or the economic data in the United States began to be significantly lower than expected, the number of interest rate increases in the year may be lower than expected. If the Fed makes a dovish statement at an interest rate meeting, which reduces the market’s expectation of the number of subsequent interest rate increases this year, the US bond yield and US dollar index, which have been fully included in the expectation of seven interest rate increases, may peak and fall at present, the uncertainty of the Fed’s monetary policy also includes the time point when the interest rate increase range may be expanded from May to June and the table contraction may be started. If the interest rate increase range of a single meeting is increased to 50bp, and before and after the Federal Reserve’s table contraction is implemented, the US dollar index and US bond yield may rise. Of course, it may also become the current round high point of the US dollar index and US bond yield
In the last round of fed interest rate hike, the RMB depreciated to a certain extent relative to the US dollar. Since this year, the interest rate gap between China and the United States has narrowed rapidly, but the RMB exchange rate has remained relatively strong, mainly benefiting from the strong willingness of China’s real sectors to settle foreign exchange at present, the interest rate difference between China and the United States has narrowed to a historical low of 65bp, and the action force on the short-term US bond yield has weakened. However, the US dollar index is still likely to continue to be strong, superimposed with the changes in the liquidity environment caused by external conflicts, it is still necessary to be vigilant against the short-term depreciation pressure of the RMB exchange rate
For the stock market, the global stock market fell to varying degrees in the month after the Federal Reserve started raising interest rates in the past two rounds; The global market rose one month after the contraction, and the whole process of raising interest rates did not hinder the rise of the stock market. Among them, A-Shares rose one month after the first round of interest rate hike by the Federal Reserve, and the decline one month after the second round of interest rate hike was mainly due to the circuit breaker mechanism. This means that the past two rounds of fed interest rate hikes have had relatively little impact on A-Shares
※ what do you think of the current A shares?
first, the current valuation of A-Shares has reached near the lowest level in history as of March 15, 2022, the valuation level of Wande quana non-financial petroleum and petrochemical fell to 24.8 times. It is consistent with the average level of the past seven bottoms. If the index stays at this position until April 30, considering the profit contribution, the valuation level of wind all a non-financial petroleum and petrochemical will drop to 22 times after the annual report and the first quarterly report are published on April 30, 202. This is very close to the undervalued level in July 2005, the end of November 2012 and 2018, and close to the valuation level at the historical bottom under the background of weak external shocks.
second, the meeting of the Finance Committee revived market confidence, which is of great significance to the stabilization and rebound of the market 3 on March 16, the financial committee of the State Council held a meeting to study the current situation. The meeting clearly called for “coordinating epidemic prevention and control and economic and social development, maintaining economic operation within a reasonable range and maintaining the stable operation of the capital market”. The meeting also made detailed discussions and positive responses to recent market concerns and concerns such as monetary policy, real estate enterprises, zhonggai shares, platform economy and the stability of Hong Kong’s financial market, so as to resolve the pessimistic expectations of the market. After that, the central bank, China Securities Regulatory Commission, China Banking and Insurance Regulatory Commission, the administration of foreign exchange, the Ministry of Finance and other departments made a joint voice, actively stated their position to maintain stability and respond to hot market issues. Among them, the positive attitude towards the real estate industry, the pilot scope of short-term real estate tax reform is difficult to further expand, and the policy is expected to support the steady and healthy development of the real estate industry, which has played an important role in the stabilization and rebound of the short-term market. In addition, the stock market has been boosted to a certain extent since the financial committee held several special meetings and major changes in the market in history.
third, the improvement of fundamental expectations needs to be verified after the growth rate of new social finance, especially the accelerated improvement of medium and long-term social finance.
1-february has seen marginal improvement in the growth rate of new social finance, and the growth rate of new social finance has become positive. However, the positive range is very weak. At the same time, structurally, the medium and long-term growth rate of social finance has not become positive. Since March, the epidemic has spread all over the country, which may affect the financing demand to a certain extent. The data in March may continue to improve, but the improvement range should not be too large. After the first quarter economic data are released in April, if it is found that the GDP growth rate is lower than expected, we believe that the new social and financial growth rate will continue to accelerate after April. Therefore, the release of March and April data – from mid April to mid May will confirm the further improvement of social finance data, so as to gradually strengthen the key driving force at the bottom.
fourth, when the yield of US bonds reaches the top and falls, it will increase the probability of A-Shares seeing the bottom we adjust the yield of 10-year US bonds by subtracting the average level of the past two years from the absolute value of a certain time node and dividing it by the standard deviation of the past two years. According to our calculation standard, if the adjusted ten-year Treasury bond yield drops below 1, gets out of the danger zone, or even quickly drops below – 1, the stock market will enter the area with greater opportunities. At present, the risk threshold corresponding to the yield of us ten-year Treasury bonds is about 1.65%, which is the level at the beginning of this year. With the landing of the Fed’s interest rate increase, the action force on the short-term US bond yield will weaken. When the Fed’s table contraction boots land, or once the Fed’s tight monetary policy is less than expected, the US bond yield will hit the top and fall, increasing the probability of A-Shares seeing the bottom.
※ summary
The Fed’s interest rate meeting in March was basically in line with market expectations. With the Fed’s interest rate hike and the landing of an external factor to curb market risk appetite, the current market has reflected the Fed’s expectation of raising interest rates seven times in the year, and the action force on the short-term US bond yield and US dollar index has weakened. Looking forward to the future, if the Fed raises interest rates more than expected or before and after the reduction, the US dollar index and US bond yield may continue to rise; If U.S. inflation falls or the economic data is less than expected, the number of interest rate increases by the Federal Reserve during the year may be lower than expected, and the U.S. bond yield and US dollar index are expected to fall at that time.
As far as A-Shares are concerned, the current valuation of A-Shares has reached near the lowest level in history, and there is limited room for further decline. In addition, the recent financial committee meeting and various parts have made statements to revitalize market confidence, which plays an important supporting role in market stabilization and rebound, and a phased bottom has been formed. However, the current positive growth rate of new social finance is weak and the structure is poor. The improvement of investors’ expectations for Fundamentals needs to be verified after the growth rate of new social finance, especially the accelerated improvement of medium and long-term social finance. We expect that the further improvement of social finance data will be confirmed between mid April and mid May, so as to gradually strengthen the key driving force at the bottom of a shares, and the yield of 10-year US bonds will peak and fall, It will increase the probability of seeing the bottom of a shares.
In terms of industry allocation, with the steady growth policy, the pull of real estate infrastructure investment will bring more opportunities to finance and upstream resource products, and the undervalued portfolio of “Bank + real estate” still has policy catalysis; The continuous improvement of upstream profitability is of particular concern. In addition, the increase of government expenditure will increase the demand for “new energy infrastructure” – Photovoltaic wind power energy storage and hydrogen energy, and digital infrastructure will also bring demand in IDC, big data cloud computing and other fields. On the whole, the current trend of “demand from steady growth, profits to the upstream” is very obvious. We suggest investors to layout the upstream links that benefit from the steady growth policy, and will have a better performance in the coming quarter.
02 p align = “center” recovery · Introspection – V-shaped reversal, confidence boost
Most of the major A-share indexes fell this week, among which the small cap value, consumption leader and small cap growth fell significantly, while the gem index and large cap growth rose. Most of the major A-share market indexes this week showed a V-shaped trend. In terms of turnover, the average turnover this Sunday was 1109.1 billion yuan, with a large amount of daily turnover compared with the previous week. The net inflow of southbound funds into Hong Kong shares this week was HK $26.35 billion, and the net outflow of northbound funds from A-Shares this week was RMB 16.69 billion.
This week, most indexes in the A-share market fell, but most indexes showed a V-shaped reversal during the week. The main reasons are as follows: 1) recently, with the continuous sharp decline of the market, negative feedback has been formed on the capital side of the stock market, especially the passive position reduction of absolute return investors has accelerated the negative feedback on the capital side of the market; 2) Recently, the pressure on epidemic control in some parts of China has increased significantly, and the number of new diagnoses has increased significantly; 3) On March 16, the financial stability and Development Commission of the State Council held a special meeting, which expressed many stable confidence in the economic governance of zhonggai shares and platforms. For China’s industrial policies, it was proposed to “actively introduce policies beneficial to the market and carefully introduce contractive policies”, “all policies that have a significant impact on the capital market should be coordinated with the financial management department in advance to maintain the stability and consistency of policy expectations”, Significantly boosted market confidence;
From the perspective of industry, most of the shenwanyi industries fell this week, and only four primary industries rose. Real estate, non bank, medicine and biology led the rise, while steel, public utilities and environmental protection led the decline. From the perspective of the reasons for the rise and fall, the industry reasons for the rise this week are mainly real estate (steady growth and favorable policies), non bank (boost market confidence), medicine and Biology (the main line of anti epidemic), The industries with the largest decline are mainly cycles (steel, coal, nonferrous metals, etc., rotational decline and short-term price factors) and consumption (food and beverage, commercial retail, textile and clothing, beauty care, etc., impact of the epidemic).
03 p align = “center” meso · boom – the production and sales of new energy vehicles maintained a high growth rate in February, and the cement price continued to rise this week
recently, Taiwan stock Electronics announced the revenue in February. The revenue of IC design, IC manufacturing, memory, silicon wafer, PCB, led and other manufacturers continued to rise year-on-year, some of the growth narrowed, and the revenue of some panel and lens manufacturers decreased year-on-year. In the field of IC design, the revenue growth of some manufacturers narrowed year-on-year. The revenue of MediaTek in February increased by 22.97% year-on-year, 0.15 percentage points lower than that in January; Lianyong’s revenue in February increased by 34.54% year-on-year, 17.11 percentage points lower than that in January IC manufacturing TSMC, UMC and the world’s revenue in February increased by 37.92%, 39.21% and 50.72% year-on-year respectively, and the stable word decreased by 6.15%; Among them, TSMC’s growth rate expanded by 2.08 percentage points, liandian’s growth rate expanded by 7.38 percentage points, the world growth rate expanded by 0.39 percentage points, and Wenmao’s year-on-year decline narrowed by 2.41 percentage points memory manufacturer Nanke’s year-on-year revenue growth narrowed by 11.33 percentage points to 11.09%, Huabang power’s year-on-year growth expanded by 7.44 percentage points to 33.33%, and wanghong’s year-on-year revenue growth narrowed by 3.40 percentage points to 20.27% silicon wafer manufacturer TSMC’s revenue in the current month increased by 0.74 percentage points to 23.33% year-on-year, and packaging manufacturer riyueyue’s revenue in the current month increased by 19.69% year-on-year, 0.78 percentage points lower than that in January; The revenue of PCB manufacturer jingshuo electronics increased by 43.15% year-on-year, 9.46 percentage points higher than that in January; The revenue of passive component manufacturer Guoju in February increased by 32.00% year-on-year, that of lens manufacturer daliguang decreased by 18.70%, that of yujingguang increased to 36.10% year-on-year, and that of Asian optics decreased by 19.84% year-on-year; Among the panel and LED manufacturers, the year-on-year growth of Youda narrowed, the year-on-year growth of crystal power expanded, the year-on-year decline of qunchuang expanded, and the year-on-year decline of Yiguang narrowed.
from 1-february, the cumulative year-on-year growth rate of industrial added value of TMT manufacturing industry narrowed slightly, and the year-on-year growth rate of fixed asset investment expanded 1-february, the industrial added value of computer, communication and other electronic equipment manufacturing industry was 12.70% year-on-year, 3.0 percentage points lower than that of last year; The cumulative value-added investment in computer, communication and other electronic equipment manufacturing industry was 35.10% year-on-year, an increase of 12.8 percentage points compared with last year.
in 2 months, the automobile production and sales remained stable on the whole and continued to grow year-on-year. Among the subdivided models, the production and sales of passenger cars decreased month on month and maintained a rapid growth year-on-year; The performance of commercial vehicles was relatively sluggish, and the production and sales decreased year-on-year and month on month; New energy vehicles and still performed well, with a month on month decrease and a year-on-year increase
The ratio of automobile production to sales increased year-on-year in February. In February, the automobile industry was affected by the Spring Festival holiday, the working days decreased, and the production and sales decreased significantly month on month. According to the data released by the China Automobile Association, the production and sales of automobiles in February reached 1.813 million and 1.737 million respectively, with a month on month decrease of 25.2% and 31.4% respectively, and the production and sales increased by 20.6% and 18.7% year-on-year. On the one hand, the year-on-year growth was driven by the export of new energy vehicles. On the other hand, inventory replenishment drove the demand upward. From January to February 2022, the production and sales of automobiles were 4.235 million and 4.268 million respectively, with a cumulative year-on-year increase of 8.8% and 7.5%.
in 2 months, the production and sales of passenger cars decreased month on month and increased year on year In 2 month, the production and sales volume of passenger cars in that month were 1.534 million and 1.487 million respectively, with a month on month decrease of 26.1% and 32.0%, and a year-on-year increase of 32.0% and 27.8%. From January to February 2022, the production and sales of passenger cars were 3.612 million and 3.674 million respectively, with a year-on-year increase of 17.6% and 14.4%.
In the middle of 2 month, the production and sales of Shanxi Guoxin Energy Corporation Limited(600617) automobile decreased month on month, and still maintained a high-speed growth year-on-year 2 in the middle of the month, the production and sales of Shanxi Guoxin Energy Corporation Limited(600617) vehicles reached 368000 and 334000 respectively, with a month on month decrease of 18.6% and 22.7%, with a year-on-year increase of 2.0 times and 1.8 times.
From January to February 2022, China Shanxi Guoxin Energy Corporation Limited(600617) produced and sold 820000 and 765000 vehicles, with a year-on-year increase of 1.6 times and 1.5 times. The market share reached 17.9%.
from 1-february, the cumulative number of charging piles decreased slightly year-on-year In 1-february, the cumulative number of charging piles reached 1213100, with a year-on-year increase of 44.87%, an increase of 128.32% compared with the same period in 2020, and the growth rate decreased by 0.34 percentage points compared with the previous value.
From January to February, the year-on-year growth rate of industrial Siasun Robot&Automation Co.Ltd(300024) output narrowed. From January to February 2022, the industrial Siasun Robot&Automation Co.Ltd(300024) cumulative output was 76381 sets / set, with a year-on-year increase of 29.60%, 15.3 percentage points lower than the previous value.
the prices of billet, rebar and iron ore fell this week as of March 18, the billet price index decreased by 0.17% on a weekly basis to 4756.0 yuan / ton; The price of HRB400 20mm deformed steel bar decreased by 0.02% to 4953.0 yuan / ton; The iron ore price index fell 0.97% week on week to 535.82.
the cement price index of the whole country and the Yangtze River, North China, East China, southwest, central and southern China rose as of March 18, the national cement price index rose 0.48% to 172.82 points; The Yangtze River cement price index rose 0.57% to 175.38; The cement price index in North China rose 0.23% to 174.35% on a weekly basis, and the cement price index in East China rose 0.38% to 176.17 on a weekly basis; The cement price index in Southwest China rose 0.90% to 159.11 on a weekly basis; The cement price index in central and southern China rose 1.36% to 177.83 on a weekly basis.
04 p align = “center” funds · numerous and few – great progress in funds going north and substantial redemption of ETF
Judging from the capital flow of the whole week, the capital going north this week made great progress, and the net outflow trend of the whole week; The net outflow of financing funds, the decline of newly established partial stock public offering funds and the net redemption of ETFs. Specifically, the net outflow of funds going north this week was 16.69 billion yuan; The total net outflow of financing funds in the first four trading days was 19.55 billion yuan; 2.99 billion partial equity public funds were newly established, down 4.09 billion from the previous period; ETF net redemption, corresponding to a net outflow of 6.79 billion yuan.
from the perspective of ETF subscription, the net redemption of ETF is dominated by wide Index ETF, and the redemption of gem (including gem 50) ETF is the most; ETFs in the industry are applied for and redeemed in half, among which new energy & Smart car ETFs are applied for and redeemed more by securities companies specifically, the overall net redemption of equity ETFs was 4.44 billion. Among them, CSI 300, gem ETF, CSI 500etf, SSE 50ETF and mass entrepreneurship 50ETF have net redemptions of 660 million, 700 million, 120 million, 330 million and 600 million respectively. In terms of industry, the net subscription of it ETF was 180 million; Net redemption of consumer ETFs: 360 million; Net redemption of 700 million pharmaceutical ETFs; The net redemption of ETFs by securities companies was 1.36 billion; Net redemptions of financial real estate ETFs: 840 million; Net subscription of 110 million military ETFs; Net redemption of 130 million ETFs of raw materials; The net subscription of new energy & Intelligent Vehicle ETF was 510 million.
this week, the scale of newly established partial stock public offering funds decreased compared with the previous period, and 2.99 billion partial stock funds were newly established
this week (March 14-march 18), the net outflow of funds from the North was 16.69 billion yuan, which was 19.63 billion yuan smaller than that in the previous period in terms of industry preference, the higher net purchase scale of northward capital is agriculture, forestry, animal husbandry and fishery, machinery and equipment, household appliances, etc., with a net purchase of 1.35 billion yuan, 970 million yuan and 900 million yuan respectively; Concentrated sales of food and beverage, medicine, biology and chemical industry, with a net sales scale of – 7.8 billion yuan, – 2.76 billion yuan and – 2.24 billion yuan.
In terms of individual stocks, the higher net purchase scale of northbound capital is Midea Group Co.Ltd(000333) , China Merchants Bank Co.Ltd(600036) , Ningbo Ronbay New Energy Technology Co.Ltd(688005) , etc; Higher net sales include Kweichow Moutai Co.Ltd(600519) , innovation shares, Contemporary Amperex Technology Co.Limited(300750) , etc.
in terms of financing, the net outflow of financing funds in the first four trading days was 19.55 billion yuan from the perspective of industry preference, the only industries with net purchase of financing funds this week are medicine, non bank finance, textile and garment, and the net purchase amount is no more than 200 million yuan; Net financing sales in most industries, among which the top net sales include electronics, chemical industry, electronic equipment, non-ferrous metals, etc.
In terms of individual stocks, the stocks with higher financing net purchases include China Meheco Group Co.Ltd(600056) , Boc International (China) Co.Ltd(601696) , Guangzhou Wondfo Biotech Co.Ltd(300482) etc., and the ones with higher net sales mainly include China stock market news, Muyuan Foods Co.Ltd(002714) , Kweichow Moutai Co.Ltd(600519) , etc.
from the perspective of capital demand, the scale of net reduction of important shareholders is reduced; The scale of planned reduction decreased this week, the major shareholders in the secondary market increased their holdings by 5.01 billion yuan, reduced their holdings by 6.95 billion yuan, and reduced their net holdings by 1.94 billion yuan, reducing the scale of their net holdings. Among them, the industries with higher net holdings include medicine and biology, household appliances, agriculture, forestry, animal husbandry and fishery, etc; Industries with high net reduction scale include media, mining, public utilities, etc. The planned reduction announced this week was 9.35 billion yuan, down from the previous period.
\u3000\u3000 05
theme · wind direction – green building planning release, it is recommended to pay attention to building energy conservation and distributed photovoltaic
The market fell this week. The wind all a index fell 1.31% weekly, the gem index rose 1.81% and the CSI 300 fell 0.94%. The top gainers this week were home textiles, food safety, terahertz and other related topics.
The theme events worthy of attention this week and next week are:
(1) network security – the state cyber information office deploys the top ten key tasks of the “Qinglang” series of special actions in 2022
On March 17, Sheng ronghua, deputy director of the state Internet Information Office, introduced that the “Qinglang” series of special actions in 2022 focused on the problems with wide impact and great harm, including 10 key tasks: first, the special action of “Qinglang · cracking down on the chaos in the field of webcast and short video”, strictly crack down on the acts of passion reward, high reward, inducement reward and reward for minors; We will resolutely curb violations of minors’ rights and interests, such as making profits through minors and creating “online popular children” through live broadcasting and short videos. The second is the special action of “Qinglang · MCN organization information content chaos rectification”. Third, the special action of “Qinglang · cracking down on Internet rumors” comprehensively cleaned up rumor information related to political economy, culture and history, popular science of people’s livelihood and other fields, labeled and made explicit. Fourth, the special action of “Qinglang · 2022 summer Internet environment improvement for minors”. Fifth, the special action of “Qinglang · rectifying the chaos of application information services”. Sixth, the special action of “Qinglang · standardizing the order of network communication” aims at the key production and communication platforms of online news and information, and carries out the special rectification of standardizing the order of network communication in stages. We will strengthen the governance of the source of online news and information dissemination and tighten the guidance. Crack down on the illegal collection and editing, over range reprint, tampering with news headlines, illegal push pop-up push and other behaviors of key communication platforms. Seventh, the special action of “Qinglang · comprehensive treatment of algorithms in 2022” urged key Internet enterprise platforms to rectify the problems of “information cocoon room” and “algorithm discrimination” caused by unreasonable application of algorithms, actively use algorithms to carry forward socialist core values and create a clean and positive network space. Eighth, the special action of “Qinglang · 2022 Spring Festival network environment improvement”. Ninth, the special action of “Qinglang · cracking down on traffic fraud, black public relations and online water army”. Ten is “Qinglang · special rectification action for Internet user account operation”.
(2) green building materials – green building materials to the countryside activities were released, and the general code for building energy conservation and renewable energy utilization was officially implemented
On March 14, six departments including the Ministry of industry and information technology, the Ministry of housing and urban rural development, the Ministry of agriculture and rural areas, the Ministry of Commerce, the State Administration of market supervision and the State Rural Revitalization Bureau jointly issued the notice on carrying out the activities of green building materials to the countryside in 2022 to encourage the consumption of green building materials. On April 1, the general code for building energy conservation and renewable energy utilization, as a mandatory engineering construction code, will also be officially implemented.
(3) new energy vehicles – Ministry of industry and information technology: jointly guide the rational return of lithium salt price and strengthen efforts to ensure market supply
In order to ensure the supply and price stability of lithium resource products and promote the healthy development of new energy vehicles and power battery industry, the Department of raw materials industry and the Department of equipment industry I of the Ministry of industry and information technology, together with the price department of the development and Reform Commission and the price supervision and inspection and Anti Unfair Competition Bureau of the State Administration of market supervision, organized and held a symposium on the operation of lithium industry and the price rise of upstream materials of power batteries on March 16 and March 17, Industry organizations such as China Nonferrous Metals Industry Association, China Automobile Industry Association and China automotive power battery industry innovation alliance, as well as relevant principals of key enterprises upstream and downstream of the industrial chain such as lithium resource development, lithium salt production, cathode materials and power batteries attended the meeting. The meeting listened to the production, expansion and sales of key enterprises, analyzed the bottleneck problems faced by the current resource development and expansion of production and supply, and fully exchanged views on the market price formation mechanism of lithium salt products, production and consumption, the impact on the power battery industry, policies and measures to ensure supply and stabilize prices in view of the recent sharp rise in the prices of lithium resources and lithium salt products. The meeting required that upstream and downstream enterprises in the industrial chain should strengthen the connection between supply and demand, work together to form a long-term and stable strategic cooperative relationship, jointly guide the rational return of lithium salt price, strengthen efforts to ensure market supply, and better support the healthy development of strategic emerging industries such as Shanxi Guoxin Energy Corporation Limited(600617) automobile.
(4) semiconductor materials — the market scale of semiconductor materials in Chinese mainland amounted to 11 billion 930 million US dollars in SEMI:202 7
On March 17, the International Semiconductor Industry Association (semi) data showed that the global semiconductor material market reached US $64.3 billion in 2021, with a year-on-year increase of 15.9%, exceeding the high level of US $55.5 billion set in 2020. Among them, the Chinese mainland market is about 11 billion 930 million US dollars, up 21.9% over the same period last year.
(5) digital transformation – SASAC establishes science and technology innovation Bureau
On March 16, the SASAC of the State Council established the science and technology innovation Bureau and the social responsibility Bureau, and held the inaugural meeting. The meeting stressed the need to improve the political position, position the quasi responsibilities, focus on the main responsibility and main business, and pay close attention to the key tasks of scientific and technological innovation and social responsibility of state-owned central enterprises. We should focus on the implementation of major science and technology special tasks, and strive to promote state-owned enterprises to create a source of original technology; Give prominence to strengthening the dominant position of enterprises in innovation, and accelerate the construction of central enterprises into innovative leading enterprises; Highlight the optimization of science and technology ecology and better stimulate the innovation and creative potential of central enterprises; Focus on the integration and digital transformation of central enterprises, and vigorously promote the in-depth integration of central enterprises’ innovation chain and industrial chain. We should focus on the work related to carbon peak and carbon neutralization of central enterprises, and vigorously and orderly promote the “double carbon” work with “one enterprise and one policy”; Do a good job in safety and environmental protection, promote the whole process and whole chain of enterprises, and improve the risk prevention and control system; Pay close attention to the quality management and brand building of central enterprises, and create a number of internationally renowned high-end brands; Pay close attention to the construction of the central corporate social responsibility system, guide and promote enterprises to actively practice the ESG concept, actively adapt to and lead the formulation of international rules and standards, and better promote sustainable development.
(6) semiconductor chip – Volkswagen: plan to transfer production capacity to China and the United States
On March 15, Volkswagen said that the challenges facing the automotive industry are increasing. In view of the shortage of semiconductors, supply chain bottlenecks, high commodity prices and the conflict between Russia and Ukraine, the company’s growth prospects in 2022 may be affected.
Volkswagen said that it has suspended production in Russia. Volkswagen CEO Herbert diess revealed on Tuesday that Volkswagen usually purchases wire harnesses from Ukraine. The lack of such parts is the most serious supply chain restriction at present, affecting most German factories. If Volkswagen cannot reschedule production in the next three to four weeks, its prospects will need to be revised. Given the situation in Europe, Volkswagen will transfer its production capacity to China and the United States, giving priority to China this year.
(7) photovoltaic – National Bureau of Statistics: the power generation from January to February was 1314.1 billion kwh, with a year-on-year increase of 4.0%
According to the statistics of the national power bureau, the daily power generation was 131.4 billion kwh, a year-on-year increase of 13.14 billion kwh in December, a year-on-year decrease of 1.2%. In terms of varieties, in addition to wind power, thermal power, hydropower, nuclear power and Cecep Solar Energy Co.Ltd(000591) power generation increased to varying degrees. Among them, thermal power increased by 4.3%, hydropower increased by 8.2%, nuclear power increased by 9.6%, Cecep Solar Energy Co.Ltd(000591) power generation increased by 6.5%, and wind power decreased by 7.6%.
(8) charging piles – Hainan plans to achieve 100% full coverage of charging piles in cities, counties and towns this year
On March 14, the development and Reform Commission of Hainan Province issued the letter on the planning and arrangement of charging infrastructure construction, operation and management tasks in Hainan Province in 2022, which pointed out that the annual construction of charging piles in Hainan Province will be 20000 in 2022, requiring the construction of charging piles in towns and townships of all cities and counties in the province to achieve 100% full coverage, at least 30% of towns and townships in each city and county will build a charging station composed of five fast charging piles, and 20% of villages in the province will have charging piles. In 2022, Hainan Province will speed up the construction of charging infrastructure by strengthening the construction of charging piles in rural villages and towns, residential areas, expressway service areas, public business places and power exchange stations, so as to lay a foundation for stopping the sale of fuel vehicles in 2030. It is planned that no less than 60% of the residential areas in the province will build charging piles, and the number of new charging piles in residential areas will not be less than 6000; Charging facilities are built in 30% of scenic spots; Charging piles are built in 50% of cultural and sports venues; Charging piles are built in 10% of hotels above Designated Size; More than 70% of universities and vocational schools have charging piles. In terms of the construction task of replacement power station, it is required to strengthen the construction of replacement power station in 2022, especially the construction of heavy truck replacement power station, so as to help achieve the “double carbon” goal as soon as possible. At the same time, from 2022, cities and counties should set a certain proportion of exclusive charging area of public parking lot (garage) according to the change of the proportion of new energy vehicles and fuel vehicles, implement management requirements, guide fuel vehicles and electric vehicles to park in different areas, clarify differentiated management measures, and fundamentally solve the problems of fuel vehicle occupancy and parking without charging.
(9) scientific and technological innovation – give priority to cultivating state key laboratories in the fields of quantum metrology, innovative vaccines and biotechnology product evaluation during the 14th Five Year Plan period
On March 18, the General Administration of Market Supervision issued the “14th five year plan” for the development of science and technology in market supervision, which proposed that by 2025, strive to achieve the “zero breakthrough” of national key laboratories and national technological innovation centers, and the number of national scientific and technological innovation bases will reach 3-5. More than 60 key national market supervision laboratories and more than 20 technological innovation centers will be built. Build 10 national quality standard laboratories, build more than 30 national quality inspection centers, build more than 50 national technical standard innovation bases, more than 50 national standard verification points, add more than 10 national industrial measurement and testing centers, and reach 30 science popularization bases of the general administration. Give priority to cultivating state key laboratories in the fields of quantum metrology, innovative vaccines and biotechnology product evaluation.
(10) new energy vehicles – Ministry of industry and information technology: vigorously promote innovation and development in key fields
On March 14, Xiao Yaqing, Minister of industry and information technology, wrote that we should fully tap the potential of domestic demand and actively expand consumer demand. We will continue to implement policies such as subsidies for the purchase of new energy vehicles, awards and subsidies for charging facilities, vehicle and vessel tax reduction and exemption, and carry out rural activities for new energy vehicles, green smart appliances and green building materials. Accelerate the cultivation and development of intelligent Internet connected vehicles, ice and snow equipment, intelligent health care, ultra-high definition video, safety emergency and other industries, and guide and expand information consumption. Pay close attention to the implementation of major projects and projects in the 14th five year plan, start a number of industrial infrastructure reconstruction projects, and speed up the construction of 5g and gigabit optical networks. Pay close attention to the implementation of major foreign-funded projects and the service guarantee of key foreign-funded enterprises, and support foreign-funded enterprises to increase their investment in medium and high-end manufacturing and R & D centers. We will vigorously promote innovation and development in key areas. We will deploy a number of key tasks in the fields of integrated circuits, biomedicine and artificial intelligence to promote the development of new materials, new energy and agricultural machinery and equipment. Focus on industrial Internet, Internet of vehicles and other fields, support advantageous areas to build national innovation and application pilot areas, open typical application scenarios, and drive the iterative upgrading of technologies and products. Build a number of national manufacturing innovation centers and national and local co construction innovation centers, encourage local governments to create a number of provincial manufacturing innovation centers, improve the innovation mode of deep collaboration between industry, University, research and application, and enhance the supply of key common technologies.
this week’s industrial observation – green building planning release, it is recommended to pay attention to building energy conservation and distributed photovoltaic
green building plan released, green building materials to the countryside activities started
On March 11, the Ministry of housing and urban rural development issued the “14th five year plan for building energy efficiency and green building development”. The document specified that by 2025, the energy-saving transformation area of existing buildings will be more than 350 million square meters, the construction of ultra-low energy consumption and near zero energy consumption buildings will be more than 50 million square meters, the proportion of prefabricated buildings in new urban buildings in that year will reach 30%, and the installed capacity of Cecep Solar Energy Co.Ltd(000591) photovoltaic buildings in China will be more than 50 million KW, Geothermal energy has a building application area of more than 100 million square meters, the replacement rate of renewable energy in urban buildings has reached 8%, and the proportion of power consumption in building energy consumption has exceeded 55%.
On March 14, six departments including the Ministry of industry and information technology, the Ministry of housing and urban rural development, the Ministry of agriculture and rural areas, the Ministry of Commerce, the State Administration of market supervision and the State Rural Revitalization Bureau jointly issued the notice on carrying out the activities of green building materials to the countryside in 2022 to encourage the consumption of green building materials. In addition, the general code for building energy conservation and renewable energy utilization will be implemented from April 1, and carbon emission calculation will be mandatory for buildings in the future.
Green building mainly includes two directions: one is building energy conservation, which mainly involves prefabricated buildings, and the other is building Cecep Solar Energy Co.Ltd(000591) photovoltaic, bapv and BIPV.
building energy efficiency: the proportion of prefabricated buildings will reach 30% in 2035, with high growth in the next five years
building energy conservation includes two stages of building construction and use prefabricated buildings can save the use of building materials and indirectly achieve the purpose of emission reduction. In addition, most prefabricated buildings have better performance in thermal insulation and other aspects, which is conducive to the significant reduction of building energy consumption.
according to the data in the evaluation and comparison of energy conservation and emission reduction of prefabricated and cast-in-place residential construction, the carbon emission of prefabricated residential construction waste is 24.99% lower than that of traditional cast-in-place residential construction.
as one of the industries with high carbon emissions, carbon emission reduction means that the production mode, technical level, material selection and business model in the industry will face innovation.
According to the national development of prefabricated buildings in 2020 released by the Ministry of housing and urban rural development, in 2020, the newly started prefabricated buildings in 31 provinces, autonomous regions, municipalities directly under the central government and Xinjiang production and Construction Corps totaled 630 million square meters, an increase of 50% over 2019, accounting for about 20.5% of the newly-built building area, and achieved the work goal of reaching more than 15% by 2020 set in the action plan for prefabricated buildings in the 13th five year plan.
By 2020, the new construction area of prefabricated buildings in China has accounted for 15%. According to the 14th five year plan for building energy conservation and green building development, by 2025, the energy-saving transformation area of existing buildings will be more than 350 million square meters, and the construction of ultra-low energy consumption and near zero energy consumption buildings will be more than 50 million square meters. prefabricated buildings will account for 30% of the new buildings in cities and towns in that year, Prefabricated buildings will continue to grow rapidly in the next five years
distributed photovoltaic
distributed photovoltaic is mainly divided into BIPV (integrated photovoltaic building) and bapv (installed Cecep Solar Energy Co.Ltd(000591) photovoltaic building) bipv, as a part of the external structure of the building, not only has the function of power generation, but also has the function of building components and building materials. Bapv is only the photovoltaic material attached to the building and does not undertake the function of the building. The combination of photovoltaic and building can effectively reduce building energy consumption and vigorously develop low-carbon and zero carbon buildings, which is of great practical significance for energy conservation, emission reduction and environmental protection.
distributed photovoltaic system has been successfully promoted abroad overseas developed countries started distributed photovoltaic earlier, and many countries have launched a number of incentive policies and development plans as early as the end of the 20th century. For example, Germany, Italy, Japan, the United States and other countries have formulated ” Cecep Solar Energy Co.Ltd(000591) photovoltaic roof plan” and made clear indicator planning for the installed scale of distributed photovoltaic in the next few years. Zero energy consumption building has become the key trend of global building development in the future. As the mainstream form of near zero energy consumption green building, distributed photovoltaic has become the mainstream in the photovoltaic market. From the global application of photovoltaic, the proportion of distributed applications has reached 79%. Distributed photovoltaic power generation accounts for more than 99% in Japan and Australia, and 86% in Germany, the most mature application.
China’s installed capacity is growing rapidly and its market penetration is increasing rapidly according to statistics, in 2020, China’s newly added photovoltaic installed capacity was 48.2gw, centralized 32.7gw and distributed 15.5gw, accounting for 32.2%, while in 2021, the installed capacity of 1-6 moonlight volt power generation was 13.01gw, of which centralized accounted for 38% and distributed accounted for 62%, significantly exceeding the centralized, and the penetration rate of distributed photovoltaic increased significantly. According to the statistics of the national energy administration, in 2013, the cumulative installed capacity of distributed photovoltaic power generation in China was only 3.1gw. By 2019, the cumulative installed capacity of distributed photovoltaic power generation in China has reached 62.63gw, an increase of nearly 20 times over 2013; In 2020, the cumulative installed capacity of distributed photovoltaic power generation in China will reach 78.31gw.
bapv / BIPV consumption reduction function is in line with the development trend of green buildings, and the market is expected to grow further with the promotion of double carbon, the policy intensity continued to increase. On October 26, 2021, the State Council issued the action plan for carbon peak by 2030, which proposed that “the integrated application of photovoltaic power generation and buildings should be promoted, by 2025, the renewable energy substitution rate of urban buildings should reach 8%, and the photovoltaic coverage rate of the roof of new public institution buildings and new factories should strive to reach 50%”, Further clarify the positive role of bapv / BIPV development in double carbon action. China’s existing construction area is 60 billion square meters, of which the installable area such as roof accounts for about 1 / 6, that is, 10 billion square meters. Estimated by installing 150 ~ 200W per square meter and the cost is 5 yuan / W, the total installed potential of distributed photovoltaic is about 1500 ~ 2000gw, and the corresponding market scale is about 7.5 trillion yuan ~ 10 trillion yuan.
On the whole, with the release of the 14th five year plan for green building and building energy efficiency and other relevant policies, we believe that green building will continue to develop at a high speed. It is suggested to pay attention to the industrial chain of installed buildings and building distributed photovoltaic, green building materials and so on.
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data · valuation – overall A-share valuation downward
the valuation level of all A-Shares fell this week as of the closing on March 18, all A-share PE (TTM) fell 0.2x to 14.6x, in the 38.3% quantile of the historical valuation level. Gem fell this week, and PE (TTM) fell 0.3x to 41.5x, which is in the quantile of 25.6% of the historical valuation level. The Shanghai and Shenzhen 300 index PE (TTM), which represents large cap stocks, fell 0.1X to 11.7x this week, in the 44.0% quantile of the historical valuation level. The China Securities 500 index PE (TTM), which represents small and medium-sized stocks, fell 0.4 to 15.8x this week, in the 0.7% quantile of historical valuation level.
in terms of industry valuation, this week’s sector valuation rose and fell. Among them, the valuation of the communication sector rose more, with an increase of more than 1.0x, and the electrical equipment sector fell significantly, with a decrease of more than 1.5x among them, the communication sector rose 1.2x to 13.5x, in the historical quantile of 9.7%; The valuation of the electrical equipment sector fell 1.7x to 36.0x, in the historical quantile of 78.1%. As of the closing on March 18, the top five industries in the valuation of primary industries were social services, comprehensive, national defense and military industry, agriculture, forestry, animal husbandry and fishery, and power equipment.
