introduction to this report
The market has entered the repair stage, but we still need to remain vigilant, focus on the layout of low-risk characteristics, and be optimistic about the thematic directions of household photovoltaic, new digital infrastructure, military / semiconductor new materials and so on.
summary
hot topic tracking: household photovoltaic, let each building generate electricity 3 on March 14, six departments including the Ministry of industry and information technology issued a notice on carrying out the activities of green building materials to the countryside in 2022; On March 11, the Ministry of housing and urban rural development issued the 14th five year plan for building energy conservation and green building development; On March 16, Hebei Provincial Energy Bureau issued a notice on printing and distributing the guiding code for roof distributed photovoltaic construction (Trial).
since the launch of the pilot project of roof distributed photovoltaic development in the whole county of China, the development of distributed photovoltaic has accelerated significantly 2021: distributed PV accounted for more than 50% of the new installed photovoltaic power generation. In 2021, the whole county promoted the pilot counties of roof distributed photovoltaic, with a cumulative filing capacity of 46.23 million KW, mainly distributed in Shandong, Henan and Zhejiang; The cumulative grid connected capacity is 17.78 million KW, mainly distributed in Shandong, Zhejiang and Guangdong.
risk factors have been gradually repaired, and the market has entered a relatively stable stage 3 since March, the A-share market has fluctuated violently until it stabilized and rebounded last week and entered the stage of repair and consolidation. Last week, there was a deep V rebound in the market. During this period, themes such as power batteries and vaccines rebounded significantly and the net capital inflow was obvious. While hot themes such as electronic ID card and covid-19 special drugs led the rise, the net capital outflow was significant. While strictly grasping the epidemic prevention and control work, the marginal changes of the new diagnosis and treatment plan guide the market expectation to turn to the recovery of demand in the post epidemic period. The situation in Russia and Ukraine under the game of great powers has taken a certain turn. The Fed’s interest rate increase has been gradually realized at the expected pace, and the market has entered a relatively stable stage, but it still needs to be vigilant to avoid blame.
northward capital returns to the net inflow pattern. Under the stable liquidity environment, pay attention to the increase of industrial capital holdings March saw a cumulative net outflow of more than 50 billion yuan, ending the pattern of monthly continuous net inflow since October 2020. During the market rebound in the second half of last week, the return of funds from northbound was obvious, with a net inflow of 5.4 billion yuan and 8.5 billion yuan on Thursday and Friday respectively. From the perspective of capital trading structure of northbound, last week’s overweight direction focused on household appliances, finance and other industries, among which Midea Group Co.Ltd(000333) , China Merchants Bank Co.Ltd(600036) net purchases took the lead. The short-term fluctuation of northbound capital is not the main reason for the recent market correction. In the environment of shrinking global liquidity environment and stable liquidity environment in China, we should pay more attention to the increase of industrial capital.
around the low-risk characteristics, the valuation is shield and the profit is spear the investment choice in the market repair stage still needs to focus on the direction of low-risk characteristics. The valuation advantage, profitability toughness and institutional position concentration need to be considered. At the same time, we should have enough confidence and patience in the effectiveness of the steady growth policy. In the medium and long term, the fundamental way to prevent and resolve the development crisis is technological transformation, industrial transformation and social policy adjustment. We need to constantly improve the competitiveness of science and technology and create new economic needs look for investment opportunities in subdivided fields from the perspective of new and old energy reform and improving the voice of core science and technology, and be optimistic about the thematic directions such as household photovoltaic, new digital infrastructure, military / semiconductor new materials, etc
catalog
\u3000\u3000 1. Recommended direction of “theme investment” of Guojun strategy
\u3000\u3000 2. Hot topic tracking: household photovoltaic, making every building generate electricity
\u3000\u3000 3. Theme Investment Outlook: Xi tieruo, Li Wujiu
\u3000\u3000 4. Risk tips
Guojun strategy “theme investment” recommended direction
hot topic tracking: household photovoltaic, making every building generate electricity
on March 14, 3, six departments including the Ministry of industry and information technology issued a notice on carrying out the activities of green building materials to the countryside in 2022 pointed out that we should accelerate the production, certification, popularization and application of green building materials, promote green consumption and help the construction of beautiful villages.
on March 11, 3, the Ministry of housing and urban rural development issued the 14th five year plan for building energy conservation and green building development points out that more than 50gw of PV will be added in 2025. The energy-saving transformation of existing buildings covers an area of more than 350 million square meters, the construction of ultra-low energy consumption and nearly zero energy consumption buildings covers more than 50 million square meters, the proportion of prefabricated buildings in new urban buildings in that year reaches 30%, the installed capacity of Cecep Solar Energy Co.Ltd(000591) photovoltaic buildings in China is more than 50 million KW, the application area of geothermal energy buildings is more than 100 million square meters, the replacement rate of renewable energy in urban buildings reaches 8%, and the proportion of power consumption in building energy consumption exceeds 55%.
the National Energy Administration recently replied to the consultation on system access of distributed photovoltaic projects pointed out that power grid enterprises should formulate the work flow of distributed generation grid connection, set up and publish the location and contact information to accept the declaration of distributed generation investors in cities or counties, so as to improve service efficiency and ensure barrier free access. For the distributed generation connected to the distribution network with the voltage level of 35 kV and below, the power grid enterprise shall handle the grid connection application according to the specially set simplified process, and provide consulting, commissioning, grid connection acceptance and other services.
all localities have successively issued policies to encourage the development of household distributed photovoltaic
on March 16, 3, Hebei Provincial Energy Bureau issued a notice on printing and distributing the guiding specifications for roof distributed photovoltaic construction (for Trial Implementation) points out that the roof distributed photovoltaic project is gradually developed and constructed in the way of “photovoltaic + energy storage”, and the energy storage configuration is carried out based on the principle of ensuring the safe operation of power grid and the safety of power supply and consumption of users, taking into account the load characteristics and power quality requirements. The design service life of roof distributed photovoltaic shall not be less than 25 years. The roof distributed photovoltaic project of natural person shall not be greater than 50 kW. The supporting energy storage device shall meet the working life of more than 10 years (5000 cycles), and the 10-year attenuation rate of system capacity shall not exceed 20%.
on March 10, 3, Anhui Wuhu housing and Urban Rural Development Bureau issued a notice on accelerating the promotion and application of photovoltaic power generation in the construction field pointed out that the roofs of newly-built, reconstructed and expanded industrial and civil construction projects in the city should be designed and constructed according to photovoltaic power generation and the integration of photovoltaic and architecture. Among them, the photovoltaic power generation system shall be installed simultaneously for industrial buildings with a single roof area of more than 1000 square meters, and the area of solar power generation modules shall not be less than 70% of the roof area; The single roof area of public buildings is more than 500 square meters, and the area of Cecep Solar Energy Co.Ltd(000591) power generation components is not less than 50% of the roof area; For residential buildings with a single roof area of more than 300 square meters, priority shall be given to the installation of photovoltaic power generation system, and the area of solar power generation module shall not be less than 35% of the roof area.
Ningbo Energy Bureau issued several opinions on vigorously promoting the application of building roof distributed photovoltaic power generation system proposes to scientifically and reasonably arrange the promotion and application of distributed photovoltaic in old residential quarters, vigorously promote the promotion and application of distributed photovoltaic power generation system in existing non residential buildings, and strengthen the incentive and guidance of distributed photovoltaic power generation in existing residential buildings. The opinions will be implemented from March 20, 2022.
since the launch of the pilot project of roof distributed photovoltaic development in the whole county of China, the development of distributed photovoltaic has accelerated significantly 2021: among the newly installed photovoltaic power generation, distributed photovoltaic power generation increased by 29.28 million KW, accounting for about 55% of the total newly installed photovoltaic power generation, surpassing centralized power stations for the first time in history. The cumulative installed capacity of distributed photovoltaic has exceeded 100 million KW, accounting for about one third of the total installed capacity of photovoltaic power generation. According to incomplete statistics, in 2021, the whole county promoted the pilot counties of roof distributed photovoltaic, with a cumulative filing capacity of 46.23 million KW; Mainly distributed in Shandong, Henan and Zhejiang; The cumulative grid connected capacity is 17.78 million KW, mainly distributed in Shandong, Zhejiang and Guangdong. From the reported project development subjects, the cooperative investment and development mode of companies established by central enterprises, local state-owned enterprises and private enterprises accounts for more than 60%.
theme Investment Outlook: Xi tieruo, Li Wujiu
risk factors have been gradually repaired, and the market has entered a relatively stable stage only by being vigilant and cautious at all times and keeping strong and refreshed can we avoid being blamed in case of danger. When the market panics, we should see opportunities, but the premise is to be cautious when the market is crazy. Since March, the A-share market has fluctuated violently until it stabilized and rebounded last week and entered the stage of repair and consolidation. On a monthly basis, while covid-19 specific drugs, electronic ID cards, covid-19 antigen detection and other themes have a strong trend, there is a significant net outflow of funds, indicating that the sustainability of event themes under low-risk preference is poor, while themes such as coal mining, tourism and pig breeding have a strong stock price and relatively stable capital sentiment. Last week, there was a deep V rebound in the market. During this period, themes such as power batteries and vaccines rebounded significantly and the net capital inflow was obvious. While hot themes such as electronic ID card and covid-19 special drugs led the rise, the net capital outflow was significant. While strictly grasping the epidemic prevention and control work, the marginal changes of the new diagnosis and treatment plan guide the market expectation to turn to the recovery of demand in the post epidemic period. The situation in Russia and Ukraine under the game of great powers has taken a certain turn. The Fed’s interest rate increase has been gradually realized at the expected pace, and the market has entered a relatively stable stage, but it still needs to be vigilant to avoid blame.
northward capital returns to the net inflow pattern. Under the stable liquidity environment, pay attention to the increase of industrial capital holdings March saw a cumulative net outflow of more than 50 billion yuan, ending the pattern of monthly continuous net inflow since October 2020. During the market rebound in the second half of last week, the return of funds from northbound was obvious, with a net inflow of 5.4 billion yuan and 8.5 billion yuan on Thursday and Friday respectively. From the north capital trading structure, last week, the direction of the capital was dominated by household appliances, finance and other industries, including Midea Group Co.Ltd(000333) and China Merchants Bank Co.Ltd(600036) net purchases. The leading funds in construction machinery, power grids, pig and silicon materials were purchased, while new energy and Baijiu were still the main areas of reduction. The short-term fluctuation of northbound capital is not the main reason for the recent market correction. In the environment of shrinking global liquidity environment and stable liquidity environment in China, we should pay more attention to the increase of industrial capital. In promoting technological change and industrial transformation, the investment and financing function of the capital market is particularly critical, and the investment value is more obvious after the overall valuation of the market falls.
around the low-risk characteristics, the valuation is shield and the profit is spear upstream energy prices continue to be disturbed by the supply side, and downstream economic demand is expected to be weak. Industries such as new energy, semiconductor and military industry driven by industrial logic face the contradiction between future market value space and short-term performance support. Investment choices in the market repair stage still need to focus on the direction of low-risk characteristics, and valuation advantages, profitability toughness and institutional position concentration need to be considered, At the same time, we should have enough confidence and patience in the effectiveness of the steady growth policy. In the medium and long term, the fundamental way to prevent and resolve the development crisis is technological transformation, industrial transformation and social policy adjustment. We need to constantly improve the competitiveness of science and technology and create new economic needs look for investment opportunities in subdivided fields from the perspective of new and old energy reform and improving the voice of core science and technology, and be optimistic about the thematic directions such as household photovoltaic, new digital infrastructure, military / semiconductor new materials, etc
risk tips
The risk of continued geopolitical conflict; The risk of covid-19 pneumonia spreading continuously; The risk that the Fed will raise interest rates and shrink the schedule faster than expected.
