general trend research and judgment: the dawn is beginning to appear and the shock is back this week, the market hit the bottom and rebounded, and the Shanghai composite index returned to 3200 points. The core comes from the preliminary correction of the pessimistic expectation of the market at the special meeting of the financial stability Commission. Since March, domestic and foreign negative impacts have continued, overseas geopolitical conflicts, rising bulk prices, rising inflation, China’s credit data are lower than expected, the epidemic has spread rapidly, market expectations have continued to weaken, and finally pessimistic expectations and stock price decline have gradually formed a negative spiral. This meeting is a pair of drug introductions expected to be repaired by the market, which has re established confidence for the market. In the future, we believe that under the catalysis of Jinwen, the market is expected to return to shock consolidation in the short term from the state of sharp decline, but the opportunity of trend still needs to wait 1) molecular end: a complete prescription still needs to wait Jin Wenhui’s statement is still vague about the substantive and effective economic stabilization plan. There is still uncertainty in the path and rhythm of economic stabilization from “thought” to “landing”. A complete prescription is still the core concern of investors’ weak economic expectation at present 2) denominator: it is still the mid-term constraint of the market this Thursday, the Federal Reserve raised interest rates by 25bp, and the short-term concerns fell to the ground, but in the future, the uncertainty of the pace of interest rate increase and table contraction is still high. The cloud meeting between China and the United States on Friday released positive signals, but there was still no significant marginal improvement in overseas geopolitical conflicts and Sino US frictions. On the whole, there is no real steady growth, the epidemic situation is repeatedly intertwined, the high uncertainty of overseas liquidity and the disturbance of geographical conflicts. At present, it is difficult to see the signal of trend reversing expectations due to the decline of profit expectations, the rise of discount rate expectations and high volatility faced by investors in stock pricing. After the end of the policy, A-Shares returned to shock.
stabilize expectations, build confidence, and Jin Wen will face concerns directly the key statement of this meeting is that “policies that have a significant impact on the capital market need to be coordinated with the financial management department in advance, and the financial commission can be held accountable if necessary”. This statement effectively reduces the market’s previous concerns about the policy uncertainty of various departments. From the specific content, this time, Jinwen will face the concerns of the market and apply the right medicine to the case. On the one hand, it has stabilized the molecular confidence around economic growth, emphasized “effectively invigorating the economy in the first quarter”, and sent a signal that the policy will continue to be loose, “monetary policy should take the initiative to respond, and new loans should maintain moderate growth”, which has stabilized the market’s confidence in steady growth. On the other hand, it also brings positive guidance to the negative factors at the denominator end, such as real estate credit risk, China concept shares and platform economy. With regard to real estate, this meeting proposed that “we should timely study and put forward effective risk prevention and resolution solutions”. With regard to China concept shares, the meeting released a positive signal of China US cooperation. With regard to the platform economy, the statement that “red lights and green lights should be set well” also reflects the policy care attitude. In addition, the central bank, the China Banking and Insurance Regulatory Commission, the China Securities Regulatory Commission and the State Administration of foreign exchange also made a quick statement. Among them, the Ministry of finance “does not have the conditions to expand the pilot cities of real estate tax reform this year” to further stabilize the real estate expectation. On the whole, this meeting stabilized expectations and built confidence, which is a pair of drug citations for the expected repair of the market.
investment opportunities in stocks with low-risk characteristics spring will finally come, but before the demand side policy and credit easing trend are clear, geopolitics, overseas liquidity tightening and real asset inflation will still restrict the improvement of investors’ choice range and risk appetite. After the gold stability meeting, the A-share market is expected to continue the rebound trend in the short term. However, the selection of stocks should focus on stocks with low-risk characteristics. Profit certainty, dividend strategy, high dividend strategy and undervalued strategy are the advantageous strategies for investors to obtain income at present. From the recent market structure, we can also observe the advantages of low-risk characteristic structure. Since February, the cumulative returns of dividend index and high dividend strategy index have been 3.80% and 3.14% respectively, with obvious excess return advantage.
industry configuration: look for the intersection of undervaluation and profit improvement around the characteristics of low risk investment should focus on stocks with low-risk characteristics, pay attention to the intersection of undervalued value and profit improvement, and focus on consumption and cycle sectors. Specifically, there are three directions: 1) to G end or public investment direction: photovoltaic, wind power, power operation, power grid, construction, etc; 2) Along the direction of inflation: coal and chemical resources; 3) dilemma reversal and profitability certainty: pig, Baijiu and so on.
