Shenzhen Agricultural Products Group Co.Ltd(000061) weekly price report | pig prices continue to fall, and the third batch of central frozen pork collection and storage will start

According to the data monitored by the Ministry of agriculture and rural areas, on March 18, the average price of pork in the national Shenzhen Agricultural Products Group Co.Ltd(000061) wholesale market was 18.00 yuan / kg, down 1.2% from the previous day and 1.53% from 18.28 yuan / kg last Friday (March 11).

Pork price tabulation surging news in recent three weeks

The overall decline in the price of live pigs (foreign ternary) is relatively large. According to the data of China pig breeding network, on March 14, the average price of domestic pigs (foreign three yuan) was 12.23 yuan / kg, 12.15 yuan / kg on March 15, 12.19 yuan / kg on March 16, 12.1 yuan / kg on March 17, and 11.98 yuan / kg on March 18, a decrease of 3.23% compared with 12.38 yuan / kg on Friday.

On March 14 this week, the National Bureau of statistics released the market price changes of important means of production in the circulation field in the first ten days of March 2022. The price of live pigs (external three yuan) was 12.3 yuan / kg, a decrease of 0.2 yuan per kilogram compared with the price in the previous period, a decrease of 1.6%.

Data sources of market price of domestic pigs (foreign ternary) since 2014: wind and National Bureau of Statistics

In terms of the national pig (external three yuan) market price from the beginning of 2014 to early March 2022, the lowest point is 9.9 yuan / kg in early May 2018 and 12.3 yuan / kg in early March this year. Compared with the lowest point of 9.9 yuan / kg in recent 8 years, the distance per kilogram is 2.4 yuan. Compared with the first bottom of pig price in this cycle (early October 2021), the difference is only 1.8 yuan / kg.

The collection and storage of the third batch of central frozen pork reserves will start during the year. On March 15 this week, the national development and Reform Commission announced that according to the monitoring of the national development and Reform Commission, the national average pig grain price ratio was 4.75:1 in the week from March 7 to March 11, which was in the level-1 early warning range of excessive decline determined by the "plan for improving the regulation mechanism of government pork reserves and ensuring the supply and price stability of pork market" for three consecutive weeks. The national development and Reform Commission will work with relevant departments to start the collection and storage of the third batch of central frozen pork reserves during the year, and guide all localities to speed up the collection and storage. On March 18, the notice of the national development and Reform Commission on further improving the work related to important Shenzhen Agricultural Products Group Co.Ltd(000061) production such as grain and soybean, published on the official website of the national development and Reform Commission, proposed to pay close attention to the study and judgment of the supply and demand situation of pigs and the evolution of pig cycle in this region, timely take targeted measures such as government collection and storage, stabilize the long-term support policy for pig production, stabilize the basic production capacity and prevent the ups and downs of production.

Huarongda futures believes that in terms of supply, from the perspective of the number of fertile sows and considering that there has been no significant decline in the number of piglets in recent months, the supply of pigs in the first half of the year is sufficient; In terms of consumption, March May is still the traditional off-season of consumption, so it is difficult to undertake huge supply.

Hua'an futures believes that feed prices have risen sharply, farmers' profits have further declined, and they are willing to support the price. However, affected by the release of production capacity, the supply of pigs continues to increase, and the pig price is difficult to be supported. The boost of collection and storage to pig prices was limited. After the announcement of the second batch of collection and storage news, pig prices fell instead of rising. The short-term pig price may rebound, but the trend is still in a downward cycle.

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