At present, Beijing’s real estate market has entered the “little sunny spring” of the traditional real estate market in March. From the market feedback, as the overall environment of the real estate market has changed from tight to moderately loose, the mortgage has gradually “loosened”. Under the influence of the frequent release of positive signals, the overall second-hand housing market in Beijing showed a stable upward trend in the first half of March, and some regions showed a trend of shorter transaction cycle and faster transaction rhythm.
From the transaction data, the monitoring data of Zhuge housing search data research center shows that as of March 15, 8067 sets of second-hand houses were sold in Beijing in the first half of March 2022, nearly catching up with the trading volume of the whole month of February, but still fell by 15.01% year-on-year. Industry insiders predict that the trading volume of second-hand houses in Beijing will exceed 15000 units in March, and the market may still maintain a steady upward trend in April.
The transaction cycle in some regions has become shorter and the pace has accelerated
“Since March, the second-hand housing market in the area where our store is located has basically maintained a stable price trend, but there has been a certain increase in trading volume.” Jia Cun, the owner of Jiahe Jiarun franchise store of 21st century real estate, told the Beijing news that its franchise store has three stores, located in Fangshan Chengguan and Yanshan area. In the first half of March, the trading volume of the three stores increased by 20% – 30% compared with the second half of February. Because the area has the advantage of low price of second-hand houses, the customer group is mainly rigid demand, such as local house changing, people seeking points to settle down, etc. At the beginning of the year, the loan policy tended to be positive and favorable policies were implemented one after another. The people in need ended their wait-and-see and chose to enter the market one after another.
Chen guixun, regional manager of Beijing Zhongyuan Wukesong area, said that in Wukesong area, from the perspective of its stores, the upward trend of trading volume is not obvious. Up to now, the trading volume has not been more than last month, which may be the reason for the relatively small inventory. However, in Wanliu and world city areas, the trading volume in the first half of March was large, the inventory was removed quickly, and the transaction cycle was not long. “At present, the house purchase group is still just in need and just changed. The selling speed of house buyers is much faster than the original, and many owners also began to adjust prices.” Chen guixun said.
From the perspective of Shahe Higher Education Park Business District, Li Longlin, the owner of the 21st century real estate Tiantong Weiye franchise store, said that since late February, affected by the policies before and after the Spring Festival, especially the willingness of customers who just need to buy houses has increased significantly, the transaction in the whole business district presents a major feature – the transaction cycle has become shorter and the transaction rhythm has become significantly faster. “In the last week of February, the trading volume of customers who just need to ‘get on the bus’ in the whole business district exceeded 15 sets; at the same time, the transaction of improved customers also accelerated significantly. The main transaction customers are mainly those who have been looking at the house for more than 3 months in 2021 and have sold their first suite under their name. The transaction rhythm of customers is accelerated, and some even speed up to 1-2 days to sign a contract, and some customers are anxious to enter the market.” Li Longlin said.
In terms of price, according to Li Longlin, the price of rigid demand house types below 100 square meters is basically stable, with little increase. There is a certain increase in the price of improved house types, especially the 4-bedroom house type, and even the phenomenon of “it is difficult to find one room”. However, through the centralized decentralization of these buyers, it is expected that the transaction rhythm of improving house types will slow down in the future.
Liu Jinlong, the regional manager of Baiziwan coastal area in maitian, said that the buildings in the area in charge of its stores include coastal Sailuo city and Baiziwan, which are just needed real estate. In the first half of March, the trading volume in the area was relatively stable, and there was no obvious phenomenon of “little spring”. However, the high-end buildings around the area have higher trading volume than before. Generally speaking, buyers with high-end demand have made rapid moves and become the main force of transactions, and transactions of just in need buyers are also slowly accelerating.
“Compared with before, the owner’s expectation has improved. Xinjingjiayuan and other communities in the region have not only large trading volume, but also fast trading speed.” Huang Junhu, regional manager of Chongwenmen District in wheat field, said.
In the first half of March, 8067 second-hand houses were sold in Beijing
With the increase of transaction activity in many regions, the overall recovery of Beijing’s second-hand housing market is also fed back to the data level. According to the monitoring data of Zhuge housing search data research center, as of March 15, 8067 second-hand houses were sold in Beijing in the first half of March 2022, nearly catching up with the trading volume of the whole month of February, but there is still a certain gap compared with the transaction level of 9492 units in the same period last year, with a year-on-year decline of 15.01%.
Since March, from the perspective of relevant market indicators, Beijing’s second-hand housing market has shown a steady upward trend. According to the monitoring of wheat field data, the number of new rooms of second-hand houses increased by 0.04 month on month in March, the average daily viewing volume increased by 15% compared with two weeks after the Spring Festival, and the number of houses traded in some high-quality sectors increased significantly within one week after listing. In this regard, the analysis of wheat field real estate believes that the main reasons are: on the one hand, the shortening of bank lending cycle and the decline of interest rate are conducive to boosting market confidence; On the other hand, affected by the Spring Festival holiday in February, part of the demand was released in March.
Liang Nan, an analyst at Zhuge housing search data research center, pointed out that as the overall environment of the real estate market has changed from austerity to moderate easing, and the mortgage has gradually been “deregulated”. On the whole, under the influence of the reduction of residents’ mortgage interest rate, the acceleration of mortgage loans and the frequent release of national positive signals, the second-hand housing market in Beijing showed signs of recovery since the end of February, and the weekly trading volume of second-hand housing has increased week by week. In March, with the gradual release of part of the backlog of house purchase demand affected by the Spring Festival and the epidemic, it also raised the second-hand housing market to a certain extent.
Guo Yi, chief analyst of Heshuo real estate agency, pointed out that the overall signing volume of second-hand houses in Beijing doubled in the first half of March compared with the same period in February. From the current second-hand housing market in Beijing, the relaxation of credit policy has formed a “catfish effect” on the market as a whole, driving the shortening of the overall transaction cycle and the transaction process between buyers and sellers, and further stimulating the centralized release of the overall online signing volume.
In addition, Guo Yi analyzed that after the tightening of credit last year, the listing price of the overall second-hand housing market has been greatly adjusted, and the bargaining space between buyers and sellers has been increased, which is also a major reason for the recent warming of transactions in the second-hand housing market. At present, the listing prices of second-hand houses around some industrial parks have increased to a certain extent, such as Beijing Centergate Technologies (Holding) Co.Ltd(000931) , Xierqi, Wangjing, Yizhuang, etc.
Industry: the recovery trend of Beijing second-hand housing market may continue
At present, more than half of the “little sunny spring” of the traditional real estate market in March. How will Beijing’s second-hand housing market go in the future? Guo Yi believes that from the perspective of the overall second-hand housing market in Beijing in March, the transaction activity has increased, it is expected that more owners will increase the listing price, and the bargaining space between buyers and sellers will also be narrowed; In terms of trading volume, it is expected that the trading volume of the whole month in March will exceed 15000 sets.
“According to the current situation of customers, the rigid demand house type fair in the second half of March is relatively stable, and the trading volume and price will not change much. For improved customers, the trading volume will decline and the trading cycle will be prolonged due to the rise of prices.” Li Longlin said.
Looking forward to the next market trend, Jia Cun believes that the overall market of second-hand housing in Beijing will be further clear and better. In terms of regional market, it is expected that the transaction cycle of housing supply will be further shortened and the trading volume will rise, but the price will remain relatively stable.
Wheat field real estate analysis pointed out that at present, the fundamentals of Beijing’s second-hand housing market are good and the policies are relatively stable. It is expected that the second-hand housing market will still maintain the current stable and rising trend in April.
