Since this year, the price of lithium carbonate in China has soared. Affected by the high price of raw materials, the decline of subsidies and other factors, Chinese Shanxi Guoxin Energy Corporation Limited(600617) automobile enterprises set off a price rise tide.
The Ministry of industry and information technology announced on March 18 that in order to ensure the supply and price stability of lithium resource products and promote the healthy development of new energy vehicles and power battery industry, the Department of raw materials industry and the first Department of equipment industry of the Ministry of industry and information technology, together with the price department of the national development and Reform Commission, the price supervision and Inspection Bureau of the State Administration of market supervision and Anti Unfair Competition Bureau, organized and held a symposium on the operation of lithium industry and the price rise of upstream materials of power batteries on March 16 and March 17.
The meeting required that upstream and downstream enterprises in the industrial chain should strengthen the connection between supply and demand, work together to form a long-term and stable strategic cooperative relationship, jointly guide the rational return of lithium salt price, strengthen efforts to ensure market supply, and better support the healthy development of strategic emerging industries such as Shanxi Guoxin Energy Corporation Limited(600617) automobile.
lithium in short supply
The meeting listened to the production, expansion and sales of key enterprises, analyzed the bottleneck problems faced by the current resource development and expansion of production and supply, and fully exchanged views on the market price formation mechanism of lithium salt products, production and consumption, the impact on the power battery industry, policies and measures to ensure supply and stabilize prices in view of the recent sharp rise in the prices of lithium resources and lithium salt products.
An enterprise participant told the first financial reporter that the meeting focused on understanding the production and demand of upstream and downstream enterprises in the industrial chain such as lithium resource development, lithium salt production, cathode materials and power batteries, as well as the most urgent demands at present. We also listened to the opinions and suggestions of professionals from industry organizations such as China Nonferrous Metals Industry Association, China Automobile Industry Association and China automotive power battery industry innovation alliance.
Lithium is a white metal. As the metal element with the most negative electrode potential in nature, it is a natural battery material and is regarded as the “white oil” of the future. With the rapid development of new energy vehicle industry, lithium, as the core upstream raw material of lithium battery, has become the focus of attention.
Puritanism, chairman of the battery hundred people’s Association, said that the world’s lithium resource reserves are mainly concentrated in Chile, Australia and Argentina. China’s lithium ore is mainly imported from Australia and Argentina, with an external dependence of about 70%, and this proportion will continue to increase with the high growth of market demand for new energy vehicles in the future.
From 50000 yuan / ton at the beginning of 2021 to 500000 yuan / ton at present, the price of lithium has increased tenfold in more than a year. According to the data, on March 18, the price of lithium carbonate in China reported 504000 yuan / ton, an increase of 73.8% over the beginning of the year and 479.3% year-on-year.
According to institutional analysis, the core of the soaring lithium price lies in the shortage of supply. The development of new energy automobile industry is in full swing, and the exploitation cycle of upstream resources is long, which can not keep up with the production expansion speed of downstream lithium battery industry. However, there are also speculation factors such as purchasing and hoarding for speculative purposes.
According to a report released by Minmetals securities, the sources of supply increment in the next year are too concentrated, and the formation of effective supply still needs a processing cycle to enter the market, but the downstream goods preparation and procurement are often carried out in advance. Coupled with the capacity expansion of midstream batteries and material links, the procurement demand of the industrial chain will be significantly higher than the installation demand of the terminal at a certain stage. From 2020 to 2025, the proportion of lithium demand for new energy vehicles is expected to rise from 36.5% to 64.4%; The proportion of lithium demand in battery energy storage power stations is expected to increase from 5.3% to nearly 20%.
The growth rate of lithium resources in Shanghai is expected to accelerate by 36% over the same period of 2025, but the growth rate of lithium resources is expected to be lower than that of Shanghai Nonferrous Metals network, which will still reach 31% in the same period of 2020.
As for the next trend of lithium price, Guotai Junan Securities Co.Ltd(601211) believes that the price of lithium sector continues to rise. The rapid rise in price is mainly driven by the urgent demand for lithium carbonate from lithium iron phosphate manufacturers, especially overseas energy storage batteries. The lithium price is transmitted smoothly, and naturally the lithium price is further raised. In the short term, lithium supply and demand will continue to be tight, and lithium prices may remain strong.
guide the rational return of price
The Ministry of industry and information technology previously said publicly that it would focus on meeting the production needs of power batteries, moderately accelerate the development progress of China’s lithium and nickel resources, and crack down on unfair competition such as hoarding and raising prices.
During the national “two sessions” this year, several persons in charge of lithium battery enterprises put forward suggestions and proposals. Chen Hong, deputy to the National People’s Congress and Secretary of Saic Motor Corporation Limited(600104) Party committee, suggested to effectively integrate and control upstream resources such as lithium and cobalt to ensure the safety of the industrial chain. Yin Tongyue, deputy to the National People’s Congress and chairman of Chery Automobile, suggested that government departments formulate policies to include new energy power battery materials into the national strategic reserve resource management, set up special funds, support and encourage Chinese enterprises to acquire overseas battery material resources, so as to ensure the safety of the supply chain of new energy vehicles.
Zeng Yuqun, member of the CPPCC National Committee and Contemporary Amperex Technology Co.Limited(300750) chairman of the board of directors, submitted the proposal on taking effective measures as soon as possible to promote the stable supply and price of lithium resources in China, which shows that lithium resources are the core raw materials of lithium batteries. At present, the supply and demand situation of lithium resources is severe and the development of the industry is facing challenges. The exploration and development of lithium resources in China should be accelerated to ensure the safety of the supply chain. At the same time, we should strengthen independent innovation and scientific and technological research, and improve the level of resource recycling and efficient utilization.
Yu qingjiao said that if the lithium price continues to rise, the cost of many links of the industrial chain will be under pressure, and the living space of small and medium-sized enterprises will be further squeezed. From the perspective of terminal market, the sales volume of existing low-cost new energy models will be greatly affected.
Due to the high price of raw materials, Chinese Shanxi Guoxin Energy Corporation Limited(600617) automobile enterprises have set off a tide of price rise. On March 18, Xiaopeng automobile announced that affected by the continuous sharp rise in the price of upstream raw materials, it would adjust the price of vehicles on sale by 10000 yuan to 20000 yuan.
Earlier, a number of new energy vehicle enterprises announced price increases, including Tesla, Byd Company Limited(002594) , Nezha and other new car manufacturers, as well as foreign brands such as FAW Volkswagen, SAIC Volkswagen, Volvo and Ford. Among them, the price of the rear wheel drive version of Tesla Model y increased by 21000 yuan. The guide prices of Nezha u Pro 400 industry customized version and 500 industry customized version were also increased by 13000 yuan.
A sales manager of Xiaopeng automobile previously told the first finance and economics reporter that the decline of national new energy subsidies, the rise in the price of battery raw materials and the shortage of chips will lead to the rise in the price of new energy vehicles and the shortage of batteries, which will still exist this year. Many new energy manufacturers now have this situation.
This year will be the last year of the subsidy policy for new energy vehicles. However, the Ministry of industry and information technology released the signal of extending the preferential policy of purchase tax for new energy vehicles. Xin Guobin, Vice Minister of the Ministry of industry and information technology, said at a press conference held by the state information office on February 28 that the Ministry of industry and information technology is stepping up research and clarifying support policies such as the continuation of preferential purchase tax for new energy vehicles, supporting innovation breakthrough and market expansion, and promoting the rapid development of new energy vehicle industry.
