This week, as the peripheral financial markets stabilized and rebounded, Shanghai and Shenzhen A shares also stopped falling and rebounded. This week, the Shanghai Composite Index fell 1.77% to close at 325107 points; The Shenzhen Component Index fell 0.95% to close at 1232865 points; Gem index rose 1.81% to close at 271379 points; The CSI 300 index fell 0.94% to close at 426590. For next week’s market, industry insiders believe that the rebound in the next few days is mainly the repair market after oversold, and investors can continue to pay attention to the repair opportunities of thematic sectors in operation.
gem closed positive against the market
This week, the market restrained first and then rose. On Monday and Tuesday, the stock index fell sharply in a row. The Shanghai Composite Index fell 2.61% on Monday and 4.95% on Tuesday. With the rebound of us and Hong Kong stocks, the market has closed positive since Wednesday. The Shanghai Composite Index rose 4.02% on Wednesday, 2.41% on Thursday and 0.31% on Friday.
The reporter noted that although the market stabilized in the short term, the market still lacked trading volume cooperation in the rebound. In the Shanghai stock market, the turnover was 522.3 billion yuan on Wednesday, 532.5 billion yuan on Thursday and 428.4 billion yuan on Friday. In Shenzhen, the turnover was 669.7 billion yuan on Wednesday, 742.9 billion yuan on Thursday and 562.1 billion yuan on Friday. It is not difficult to find that due to the lack of transaction cooperation, the range of market rebound has been significantly narrowed. It is worth mentioning that the gem rose nearly 2% against the market this week, making the trend of Shenzhen stock market stronger than that of Shanghai stock market.
This week, the sharp rebound of Hong Kong stocks in the second half of the week also supported a shares. The Hang Seng Index fell sharply on Monday and Tuesday, but rose 9.08% on Wednesday and 7.04% on Thursday; Friday opened low and went high, closing down slightly. In addition, US stocks rebounded continuously from Tuesday to Thursday.
On the news front, the Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) announced the latest interest rate resolution on Wednesday local time, raising the benchmark interest rate by 25 basis points to the range of 0.25% – 0.50%, the first interest rate increase since December 2018. The Federal Reserve expects to raise interest rates seven times in 2022, with the interest rate at 1.9% by the end of 2022 and 2.8% by the end of 2023. The Hong Kong Monetary Authority announced on Thursday that it would raise the base interest rate to 0.75%. It is worth noting that while the Fed raised interest rates, the Central Bank of China neither followed the interest rate increase nor cut interest rates, highlighting the independence of monetary policy. Debang Securities believes that in recent years, China has been constantly making up for its financial weaknesses, such as the internationalization of RMB, allowing enterprises to reduce leverage and liabilities and reduce their own risks. At the same time, it is also improving the capital market and providing more direct financing channels.
Real estate and medicine
This week, when the market bottomed out and rebounded, the real estate and pharmaceutical sectors became the focus of capital attention.
The real estate sector strengthened this week stimulated by good news, with 128 stocks in Shenwan industry rising by an average of 2.39%. Nine of the nine that have seen a weekly rise of more than 10% with a weekly rise of more than 10% over 10% among the nine that have seen a weekly rise of more than 10% in the week, respectively: the 60060 Sufa Technology Industry Co.Ltd.Cnnc(000777) , while the leading stock Sundy Land Investment Co.Ltd(600077) rose the limit for five consecutive days, with a weekly increase of more than 60%.
On the news, on March 16, the financial stability and Development Commission of the State Council held a special meeting to study the current economic situation and capital market problems. The meeting proposed that “with regard to real estate enterprises, we should timely study and put forward effective risk prevention and resolution solutions, and put forward supporting measures for the transformation to a new development model”.
Debang Securities believes that from the perspective of real estate investment, the financing end of the real estate industry has become the main restrictive factor for the continuous improvement of real estate investment, and the pressure on the financing end of real estate enterprises has become the main factor for the expansion of the decline in the growth rate of new construction since this year. In the future, if there is no significant improvement in front-end sales, back-end loans and bond financing of real estate, new construction may continue to decline under pressure. The “correction” of the financing policy for real estate enterprises has been started since October 2021, and the policy signal of improving the financing end centered on meeting the reasonable financing needs of real estate has been frequently released. However, from the growth rate of loans in the real estate industry in the fourth quarter of 2021 and the financing of real estate credit bonds in the first quarter of 2022, the financing dilemma of the real estate industry has not been broken. In the first quarter of 2022, the financing of real estate credit bonds has not been improved, and it will take time to repair the financing environment. In July 2022, up to 54.631 billion yuan of real estate credit bonds will expire. The financing pressure may lead to the liquidity pressure of some real estate enterprises to ensure debt repayment. Some institutions believe that more and stronger demand side relaxation policies will be introduced in the future, and the “policy for urban implementation” will be used more flexibly. On the premise of relatively stable house prices, some high-energy cities may liberalize the purchase, sale and price restrictions in stages.
The pharmaceutical sector continued its strength this week, with 14 stocks rising more than 20%. Leading stock China Meheco Group Co.Ltd(600056) rose 58.91% this week after rising 41.71% last week.
theme sectors are repaired in turn
For next week’s market, industry insiders believe that investors can continue to pay attention to the repair opportunities of thematic sectors in operation.
Mr. Chen, senior manager of Huaxin securities, told the reporter of Dazhong securities news that the market rebounded for three consecutive days and accumulated more profit in the short term. Considering that the current market is still a game of stock funds, we should pay attention to avoiding high subject stocks in operation. Next week, the real estate industry chain is expected to continue to strengthen, focusing on construction, building materials, decoration, new materials and other sectors.
Boc International (China) Co.Ltd(601696) analyst Zhu Qibing believes that the government work report sets the growth target of 5.5% in 2022, and the realization of this target requires continued policy efforts. According to the manufacturing PMI data in February, the economy is still in the repair trend, but the high-frequency data is mixed, and it still takes time for market confidence to recover. Geopolitical events disturb the global market. On the one hand, they push up global inflation and suppress economic recovery; On the other hand, uncertainty led to the weakening of the Fed’s first interest rate hike. In the medium term, high inflation caused by supply side factors and tight monetary policy suppress demand, so we need to pay attention to the risk of global stagflation.
China Industrial Securities Co.Ltd(601377) analyst Jin Luyu believes that the cbcirc once again mentioned M & A loans and encouraged high-quality enterprises to collect M & A. the central bank said to maintain a moderate increase in new loans and prevent and resolve risks in the real estate market. The CSRC and safe said that they would actively cooperate with relevant departments to effectively resolve the risks of real estate enterprises. The supervision of pre-sale funds, mergers and acquisitions and real estate financing are expected to improve. At present, high-quality real estate enterprises have obvious financing advantages. High-quality real estate enterprises benefit relatively and will usher in greater development opportunities.
