“The market probability is already the bottom area.”
“Next, the trend of Hong Kong stocks and A-Shares may be more similar.”
“I will constantly deduce and calculate the cost performance between all assets, look for those assets that are now at a low historical valuation, and make a certain conversion through fundamental analysis.”
On March 18, Liu Xiaolong, chairman of juming investment, a private placement tycoon, made a rare voice and made a detailed interpretation of the recent market situation and the market outlook in 2022. He said that the market probability is already the bottom area, and the industry can pay attention to the growth direction of new energy, semiconductor and military industry.
bottom pointing clearly
Liu Xiaolong said that from the beginning of this year, the market decline reflected the overvalued value of previous track stocks and the relatively pessimistic view of the market on economic expectations. After the end of February and March, the main concern began to shift to the situation in Russia and Ukraine.
On March 16, the financial stability and Development Commission of the State Council held a special meeting to study the current economic situation and capital market problems. In the following three days, the market stabilized and rebounded. Liu Xiaolong believes that the meeting not only brings positive signals to the stock market, but also to real estate and platform economy.
Liu Xiaolong believes that, first, the decision-making level attaches great importance to the decline of the stock market, especially the decline of the Hong Kong stock market.
On the other hand, as of Tuesday, the overall valuation of the A-share market was about 10% higher than the bottom of 2018. Considering that the annual report of 2021 and the first quarterly report of 2022 have not been fully disclosed, the growth in these two quarters is relatively certain, that is, the valuation of the whole market is only about 5% – 10% higher than the lowest valuation in 2018, which is basically at the bottom.
In addition, according to Liu Xiaolong’s calculation, the gem is about a bottom area at 23 Shanxi Securities Co.Ltd(002500) points. Previously, the gem reached more than 2400 points, which is probably the bottom area. If there is no extreme unexpected situation, the market should fluctuate in a relatively narrow range in this region.
Hong Kong stocks and A-Shares will be more similar in the future
Hong Kong stocks and China concept stocks have become the focus of market attention recently.
Liu Xiaolong said that since the beginning of the year, Hong Kong stocks and China concept stocks have experienced two rounds of decline: the first round is the decline with the global market, and the second round is the decline after the conflict between Russia and Ukraine. In recent days, the rebound of Hong Kong stocks is stronger than that of a shares. According to its calculation, the recent rebound of Hong Kong stocks and China concept stocks has basically recovered the range of the second round of decline. Therefore, the next trend of Hong Kong stocks and A-Shares may be relatively more similar.
Liu Xiaolong has strong confidence in the future of Hong Kong stocks and China concept stocks. He said that China’s industrial production accounts for more than 30% of the world. High quality companies such as Hong Kong stocks and China concept stocks will still be high-quality in the future.
don’t worry about liquidity
For the liquidity issues concerned by the market, Liu Xiaolong said that at the end of last year, the market basically had a unanimous expectation for the Fed’s interest rate hike, and the market has digested this expectation at present.
For the observation of China’s liquidity, Liu Xiaolong believes that from the policy guidance of the central bank and other departments, easing is certain. Moreover, the general trend of long-term downward interest rate will not change for a long time in the future. Superimposed on the slowdown of economic growth, everyone’s requirements for the rate of return are reduced. We also need to look at the anchoring of China US interest rate spread from the perspective of development. Easing may be a big trend.
For the next six months of this year, Liu Xiaolong believes that liquidity is abundant and there is no need to worry about this year’s liquidity.
optimistic about the growth direction of new energy, semiconductor and military industry
Liu Xiaolong said that there are three forms of growth stocks: first, the penetration rate of the industry is increasing, and the total demand is growing at a high speed; Second, although the total growth is small, structural changes make China’s total growth; Third, the volume and price rise together. While the volume increases, the price also continues to increase.
Liu Xiaolong looks better in new energy, semiconductor, military industry and other directions. For example, in the direction of new energy, the penetration rate of new energy vehicle industry still has a lot of room to improve; In the context of carbon neutrality, the growth of new energy such as photovoltaic and wind power is relatively certain; In terms of semiconductors, China’s total annual imports are about 2.5 trillion yuan. Once Chinese enterprises can come out, the space is very huge.
In addition, from the perspective of reverse investment, Liu Xiaolong believes that power and medicine also deserve attention.
Referring to the investment strategy, Liu Xiaolong said, “I will continue to deduce and calculate the cost performance between all assets. If I find that the companies with positions are significantly higher than the average for a long time, I may gradually reduce the proportion of these assets, look for those assets with low historical valuation, and make some conversion through fundamental analysis.” He believes that this is one of his main methods to control the withdrawal.
