At the beginning of 2022, A-Shares fell for three consecutive days, and Kweichow Moutai Co.Ltd(600519) (600519. SH), the largest market value of the two cities, also fell behind the important mark of share price on January 6.
After the opening of the day, Kweichow Moutai Co.Ltd(600519) shares fell rapidly, falling more than 4% during the session. As of the close, Kweichow Moutai Co.Ltd(600519) fell 2.06% to 1982.22 yuan / share, and the share price fell below the 2000 yuan mark.
This is Kweichow Moutai Co.Ltd(600519) the first time in nearly a month that the stock price has returned to the 1900 yuan range. The last closing price was less than 2000 yuan on December 7, 2021. At that time, Kweichow Moutai Co.Ltd(600519) still went on the Baijiu plate repair market, and the share price was climbing up from 1700 yuan in mid November.
On the news front, Citic Securities Company Limited(600030) released a research report on the morning of January 6, saying that the operation of Kweichow Moutai Co.Ltd(600519) in 2021 is in line with expectations, and it is expected to continue the trend of simultaneous increase in volume and price in 2022. According to the company’s disclosure, the company slightly lowered the growth forecast of the company’s net profit in 2021 to 11.4% (original forecast: 13%), maintaining the growth forecast of the company’s net profit in 2022-23 by 11% / 11%, The corresponding EPS forecast for 2021-23 is 41.42/45.95/50.87 yuan (original forecast: 41.92/46.56/51.87 yuan).
This news gained a certain degree of dissemination in the market after being selected and interpreted by the media on the morning of the 6th, and became one of the important factors affecting the stock price of Kweichow Moutai Co.Ltd(600519) that day.
Citic Securities Company Limited(600030) This research report is a follow-up to the “announcement on production and operation in 2021” published by Kweichow Moutai Co.Ltd(600519) on December 31 last year.
In the business announcement, Kweichow Moutai Co.Ltd(600519) said that after preliminary accounting, the company produced about 56500 tons of Maotai base liquor and about 28200 tons of series base liquor in 2021; It is expected to achieve a total operating revenue of about 109 billion yuan (including about 93.2 billion yuan for Maotai liquor and about 12.6 billion yuan for series liquor), an increase of about 11.2% year-on-year; The net profit attributable to the shareholders of the listed company is expected to be about 52 billion yuan, a year-on-year increase of about 11.3%.
Before lowering the growth rate of Maotai’s net profit in 2021, Citic Securities Company Limited(600030) commented on the operation of Maotai in 2021 in the research report. According to Citic Securities Company Limited(600030) , Kweichow Moutai Co.Ltd(600519) set a target of 553 / 29000 tons at the beginning of the year, the production of Maotai base liquor was over completed, and there was a slight gap in the series of liquor; It is estimated that in 2021, the increase in the price of non-standard Maotai liquor and the proportion of direct sales will drive the income to increase by about 8pcts. In 2021, the price of Maotai series liquor will increase by 10% +, and the volume and price will increase significantly.
For Citic Securities Company Limited(600030) , Moutai’s profit growth rate dropped from 13% to 11.4% in 2021. A long-term Baijiu who has tracked the liquor industry told reporters that it does not need to make special interpretation and overreaction.
“(13% and 11.4%) are no different. The performance of Maotai can be calculated one year in advance, up and down no more than 2%. It is expected to be 54 billion this year, up and down no more than 1 billion.” The source said.
The 21st Century Business Herald reporter noted that before Citic Securities Company Limited(600030) , at least more than ten sellers in the market commented on the operation of Kweichow Moutai Co.Ltd(600519) in 2021, and there were many who adjusted the profit growth rate according to the operation announcement.
Among them, there is more than one company whose profit growth forecast in 2021 is lower than Citic Securities Company Limited(600030) 11.4%. For example, Guosheng securities adjusted its profit forecast for Kweichow Moutai Co.Ltd(600519) 2021 to a year-on-year increase of 11%, while the data given by Zheshang Securities Co.Ltd(601878) was 11.3%.
In fact, the sellers generally gave positive comments on the business performance of Kweichow Moutai Co.Ltd(600519) 2021, and steady closing / steady closing / steady growth is a common term in the title of the recent research report.
Meanwhile, when looking forward to 2022, almost all sellers believe that with the promotion of multi-dimensional reform, Maotai’s performance growth this year is expected to accelerate.
Huachuang securities recently pointed out that Maotai has strong certainty in accelerating the growth of financial statements this year. In terms of sales volume, the sales volume of Maotai available base liquor in 2022 is expected to reach about 40000 tons, with a growth rate of about 10%, higher than that in the previous two years. In terms of ton price, even if the direct price increase of pumao is not considered, the continuous optimization of Maotai liquor channel and product structure can contribute to the increase of average price. On the one hand, the new sales volume can provide direct sales increment, on the other hand, the increase of high-priced non-standard products targeting the minority. To sum up, Huachuang securities expects that the revenue growth of Kweichow Moutai Co.Ltd(600519) this year is expected to accelerate to the range of 15-20%, and the profit growth is expected to reach about 20%.
(21st Century Business Herald)
