The national development and Reform Commission deployed to carry out special verification on the signing and performance of medium and long-term coal contracts, and the coal output increased rapidly.
coal stocks led gains at the opening
3 in the morning trading, coal stocks continued to rise, leading the two cities Zhengzhou Coal Industry & Electric Power Co.Ltd(600121) opened for 10 minutes and rose to the daily limit. As of the closing, 120000 hands still paid to seal the daily limit. Liaoning Energy Industry Co.Ltd(600758) opened for half an hour and then rose to the daily limit. Others include Anhui Hengyuan Coal Industry And Electricity Power Co.Ltd(600971) , Yunnan Coal & Energy Co.Ltd(600792) , Shanghai Datun Energy Resources Co.Ltd(600508) and other stocks, with the highest increase of more than 5%.
Since the beginning of the year, coal stocks have continued to rise in shock, and the industry index has risen by 9.3%. Affected by the market shock in early March, coal stocks are mainly callback. The market rebounded in the past three days, and coal stocks rose again for three consecutive days.
On the news front, the national development and Reform Commission released a news today to deploy the special verification of the signing and performance of medium and long-term coal contracts. The notice requires that the number of medium and long-term contracts signed by coal enterprises should reach more than 80% of their own resources, and the annual coal consumption of power generation and heating enterprises should achieve full coverage of medium and long-term supply and demand contracts. Each medium and long-term coal contract must specify the price level or the implementation price mechanism within a reasonable range.
In addition, in terms of strengthening energy security, the implementation plan of the 14th five year plan for the development of urban agglomerations in the middle reaches of the Yangtze River has been approved by the State Council recently. The plan emphasizes the overall layout of regional coal reserve bases, encourages the construction of coal emergency reserve projects, and pays attention to the clean and efficient utilization of coal.
coal output rises rapidly
multi variety coal price high operation
According to the latest data released by the National Bureau of statistics on March 15, raw coal production has increased rapidly since the beginning of the year, and the decline in imports has narrowed 2022 from January to February, 690 million tons of raw coal were produced, with a year-on-year increase of 10.3%. The growth rate was 3.1 percentage points faster than that in December last year, and the average daily output was 11.64 million tons. Imported coal was 35.39 million tons, a year-on-year decrease of 14.0%, 6.9 percentage points lower than that in December last year
Affected by the active construction in the downstream, China’s coal supply and demand have been booming this year, driving up product prices. According to the data released by the National Bureau of statistics, in addition to the slight decline of anthracite, the prices of many kinds of coal rose in the first ten days of March. The prices of ordinary mixed coal, Shanxi big mixed coal and Shanxi excellent mixed coal rose by more than 30% month on month, Datong mixed coal rose by 29.4% month on month, and coking coal and coke rose by 14.3% and 12.2% respectively.
Guosheng Securities Research Report believes that China will still be based on the basic national conditions dominated by coal, and traditional energy will not withdraw too soon. Under the background of limited space for tapping the potential of new production capacity and stock, the rise of coal price center will contribute to the stable release of coal enterprise performance and valuation repair. In addition, China Shipbuilding Industry Group Power Co.Ltd(600482) coal, coking coal and coke prices are all global price depressions, and the upside down of prices will significantly affect China’s import volume. Even there is export arbitrage space for some varieties after processing finished products, which will form a strong support for China’s coal prices.
coal stocks increased profits
Since 2021, the prices of various types of coal in China have remained strong, the coal output has continued to grow in recent five years, and the profitability of coal enterprises has gradually improved according to the statistics of securities times · data treasure, 31 coal stocks have announced the performance forecast or performance express of 2021, of which 29 stocks have increased in advance, and the expected net profit growth of Beijing Haohua Energy Resource Co.Ltd(601101) , Shaanxi Heimao Coking Co.Ltd(601015) , Shanxi Lanhua Sci-Tech Venture Co.Ltd(600123) and other stocks is the highest year-on-year
The company’s performance is expected to increase by -601.6 billion yuan, and the net profit of the coal industry is expected to increase by -601.6 billion yuan in 2021.
Shaanxi Heimao Coking Co.Ltd(601015) performance forecast shows that it is expected to realize a net profit of 1.5-1.6 billion yuan in 2021, with a year-on-year increase of 672.5% to 724%. In 2021, the prosperity of coking industry was better, and the sales price of the company’s main products continued to rise; At the same time, the annual production and sales of the company’s main products increased significantly, of which the production and sales of coke and BDO increased by about 25% and 50% year-on-year respectively.
Since the beginning of the year, coal stocks have obtained funds to go north and continued to increase their positions. As of March 17, the market value of their shares increased from 20.438 billion yuan at the beginning of the year to 24.173 billion yuan, an increase of 18.28% from the perspective of shareholding growth, the growth of Shaanxi Coal Industry Company Limited(601225) , China Shenhua Energy Company Limited(601088) , Shan Xi Hua Yang Group New Energy Co.Ltd(600348) shareholding ranks first, with more than 10 million shares
from the perspective of valuation, coal stocks generally have a low rolling P / E ratio, nearly half of which is less than 10 times, Shanxi Antai Group Co.Ltd(600408) , Shanxi Coal International Energy Group Co.Ltd(600546) , China Coal Xinji Energy Co.Ltd(601918) the latest valuation is low, 4.4 times, 4.8 times and 5.23 times respectively
