On the evening of March 17, many gas stations lined up. At 24:00 that night, a new round of refined oil price adjustment will come. Oil prices are becoming more and more expensive. Will it be more cost-effective to buy new energy vehicles?
Tesla's answer is to raise prices three times in eight days. On March 10, March 15 and March 17, Tesla China's official website continuously adjusted the prices of its model 3 and model y models.
The reason for Tesla's price rise is largely due to the price rise of upstream raw materials. Especially lithium carbonate, the price of battery grade lithium carbonate exceeded 500000 yuan / ton in early March. A year ago, the price of battery grade lithium carbonate was less than 90000 yuan / ton, up more than five times a year.
Data source: wind, Antaike
There are many new entrants and the demand is growing rapidly
Why is the price of lithium carbonate rising so rapidly? "The core is the imbalance between supply and demand." Many industry insiders and analysts hold similar views.
Throughout the country, the expansion of new energy batteries and midstream material factories is in full swing. Recently, Lb Group Co.Ltd(002601) has built a capacity of 50000 tons of lithium iron phosphate.
At noon on March 17, Lb Group Co.Ltd(002601) announced that the lithium iron phosphate production line with an annual output of 50000 tons had entered the trial production stage in February 2022. In the trial production stage, through many phased equipment commissioning and commissioning with materials, the product quality has passed the inspection and obtained the qualification approval of some downstream customers. At present, it has the conditions for production.
50000 tons of lithium iron phosphate cathode can supply more than 400000 new energy vehicles. You know, in 2021, the sales volume of Shanxi Guoxin Energy Corporation Limited(600617) vehicles was 2.446 million.
According to Shanxi Securities Co.Ltd(002500) Research Report, the cathode material of 1GWh lithium iron phosphate battery is 2300 tons of lithium iron phosphate. According to this calculation, 50000 tons of lithium iron phosphate can produce 21.74gwh In addition, according to the data of SNE research, a Korean market research institution, the global sales of new energy vehicles from 2019 to 2021 were 2.21 million, 3.24 million and 6.5 million respectively, and the loading volume of power batteries were 115.21 GWH, 146.7 GWH and 296.8 GWH respectively, that is, the corresponding sales volume of each GWH loading volume were 19100, 22100 and 21900 respectively. Therefore, based on the conservative calculation of 20000 vehicles per GWH, 50000 tons of lithium iron phosphate battery can produce about 434800 vehicles.
And 50000 tons is only the first phase of Lb Group Co.Ltd(002601) planning. If all the projects are completed, Lb Group Co.Ltd(002601) will have a capacity of 200000 tons of lithium iron phosphate, corresponding to 8696gwh and 1739100 vehicles. According to the data of China automotive power battery industry innovation alliance, the loading capacity of lithium iron phosphate battery in 2021 was 79.84gwh.
You know, Lb Group Co.Ltd(002601) did not produce lithium iron phosphate cathode before. It is a titanium dioxide manufacturer. In fact, traditional chemical enterprises like Lb Group Co.Ltd(002601) are rushing into the lithium iron phosphate cathode industry.
The main materials for the production of lithium iron phosphate cathode are iron phosphate and lithium carbonate.
About the soaring price of lithium carbonate, Sheng Yitang, an analyst at Zoomlion gold cobalt lithium, told the daily economic news: "the most important thing is the mismatch between supply and demand in the current market expansion cycle and the shortage of raw materials in the medium and long term. Lithium salt smelters, cathode material manufacturers and battery plants have capacity expansion plans. NEW production lines continue to be implemented. The expansion cycle varies from half a year to two years, but the growth rate of raw material supply is far less than that of demand expansion."
Crazy expansion
As Sheng Yitang said, lithium salt smelters, cathode material manufacturers and downstream lithium battery plants in the middle reaches are frantically expanding their production capacity. In particular, new forces continue to enter the cathode materials and batteries.
For example, Lb Group Co.Ltd(002601) , signed a strategic cooperation framework agreement with Tianjin Jiewei Power Industry Co., Ltd. (hereinafter referred to as Jiewei power) on March 7. Jiewei power is not the top lithium battery manufacturer in China, but it is also actively expanding production capacity. According to its official website, the company has five production bases in Tianjin, Jiaxing, Yancheng, Changxing and Chuzhou. The total investment of Chuzhou production base is about 10 billion yuan, with a planned capacity of 20gwh, which is planned to be put into use by the end of 2023. By 2025, the total capacity of Javert power is planned to reach 100GWh.
It should be noted that according to SNE research data, the loading volume of Contemporary Amperex Technology Co.Limited(300750) 2021 is only 96.7gwh.
New forces are entering, and traditional giants are also expanding wildly. According to the statistics of lithium battery of Gaogong, the total investment of China Shipbuilding Industry Group Power Co.Ltd(600482) battery enterprise capacity planning project in 2021 exceeds 620 billion yuan.
In 2021, Contemporary Amperex Technology Co.Limited(300750) , Byd Company Limited(002594) , China Innovation airlines, honeycomb energy, Eve Energy Co.Ltd(300014) and other battery enterprises announced several production expansion plans one after another. Yingda securities research report predicts that China Shipbuilding Industry Group Power Co.Ltd(600482) battery enterprises will have the top 10 loading capacity in 2021, and the total capacity of enterprises will exceed 3twh by 2025 Among them, Contemporary Amperex Technology Co.Limited(300750) , Byd Company Limited(002594) , honeycomb energy, AVIC lithium battery, Gotion High-Tech Co.Ltd(002074) , Eve Energy Co.Ltd(300014) , Lishen battery, Farasis Energy (Gan Zhou) Co.Ltd(688567) 2025 capacity targets are 670gwh, 600gwh, 600gwh, 500gwh, 300gwh, 200gwh, 100GWh and 100GWh respectively, and the total capacity target is 3070gwh.
In 2021, the global power battery loading volume was 296.8gwh, and the cumulative loading volume of China Shipbuilding Industry Group Power Co.Ltd(600482) battery was 154.5gwh This means that the capacity target of 3twh will be 10 times that of global power battery loading in 2021 and nearly 20 times that of China.
New entrants who continue to enter the industry, cathode material manufacturers and battery manufacturers continue to expand. Is such expansion rational?
Zhao Bin, a battery industry analyst at toubao Research Institute, believes that: "The lithium battery industry is highly concentrated, and the head cathode material factory and battery factory have formed a stable upstream and downstream cooperation relationship and have long-term orders. Therefore, the production expansion plans of the head battery factory and cathode material factory are from the response to the terminal demand, rather than blindly expanding the production. Behind the radical production expansion plan is the continuous bullish demand for the global new energy vehicle market from 2022 to 2025, which is also confirmed by the opening of new energy vehicles in 2022 Period. "
Can the middle and lower reaches bear such a high lithium price?
"In the middle of 2021, the development of Shanxi Guoxin Energy Corporation Limited(600617) automobile market far exceeds expectations. Lithium resources are the most important raw materials for both lithium iron phosphate batteries and ternary lithium batteries." Zhao Bin told the reporter of the daily economic news.
It can be seen that the rise of lithium price is gradually transmitted by the downstream. The activities of the new energy vehicle market have driven the expansion of power battery manufacturers, thus driving the expansion of cathode material manufacturers and lithium salt manufacturers.
Before 2021, the upstream is just at a trough, and a large number of mines and salt lakes will be shut down.
Zhao Bin said: "Before 2021, the prices of lithium carbonate and lithium hydroxide continued to decline, even only about 40000 yuan / ton. A large number of mines and salt lakes stopped production, and the original production expansion plan was postponed. The surge of downstream resources obviously exceeded the original mining expectations at the mine end. It will take some time to restore production capacity and climb up the production capacity of new production lines. In addition, affected by the epidemic, Australia and South America are short of manpower for resource mining, the production capacity does not meet expectations, and the demand gap cannot be alleviated for a long time. This The imbalance between supply and demand triggered the continuous strengthening of lithium prices in the second half of 2021. "
"(at the current price level of lithium carbonate, the production of cathode material enterprises will lose money." Moco, chief analyst of true lithium research, pointed out.
So, facing the soaring price of lithium carbonate, what should cathode material manufacturers do? "There are not many methods that positive material enterprises can take, and purchasing raw materials in advance is one way. At present, when the resource price continues to rise, positive material enterprises earn is the price difference of raw material inventory. From a certain point of view, now positive material enterprises compete for financial strength. Rich enterprises hoard more raw materials and make money by playing the time difference."
During the Spring Festival, manufacturers in the middle and lower reaches hoard goods one after another and even grab goods. Sheng Yitang also said: "due to the shutdown of logistics during the Spring Festival holiday, the uncertainty caused by the epidemic and the continuous high price of follow-up, the anxiety of purchasing and supply guarantee of middle and lower reaches manufacturers has been aggravated. Before and after the Spring Festival holiday, the mood of robbing and hoarding goods in the middle and lower reaches is more serious, and manufacturers basically rely on robbing to receive goods. From the beginning of January to the end of the Spring Festival holiday in February, in just over a month, electric carbon (battery grade lithium carbonate) From 300000 / ton to 400000 / ton, the unit price soared by 100000. "
"Midstream manufacturers can rely on early preparation to ensure short-term production, which is also one of the reasons why they can stay on the sidelines and purchase less lithium salt." Sheng Yitang added.
The response of cathode material manufacturers and battery manufacturers also proves this. Jiangsu Lopal Tech.Co.Ltd(603906) staff of the listed company of cathode materials told the reporter of the daily economic news: "at present, the process of lithium carbonate is still very tight, but there is no problem in our (raw material) supply. On the one hand, some of our demand in 2022 has signed long orders; the other part is purchased in time, and we have maintained the inventory required for nearly one month's production."
In terms of battery manufacturers, Farasis Energy (Gan Zhou) Co.Ltd(688567) replied to the reporter of the daily economic news: " Farasis Energy (Gan Zhou) Co.Ltd(688567) insists on establishing a cooperative relationship of mutual trust and win-win with raw material enterprises to jointly maintain and promote the healthy development of the industry. For example, the strategic cooperation agreement signed between the company and Zhejiang Huayou Cobalt Co.Ltd(603799) at the end of last year includes the procurement of 161500 tons of ternary precursors."
In addition to long orders and hoarding, the midstream cathode material factory and battery factory have another option to conduct price transmission to the terminal vehicle factory and increase the downstream price.
The cost of single vehicle materials rose by more than 30000 yuan year-on-year, which is the price increase of 600km lithium iron phosphate new energy vehicles. According to the research report released on Shanxi Securities Co.Ltd(002500) 39, the total price of main raw materials for each 1GWh lithium iron phosphate battery was 659 million yuan, up 9.94% month on month and 158.68% year-on-year. Among various materials, lithium iron phosphate cathode increased by 238.14%. Among them, the price difference of 600 km lithium iron phosphate cathode single car is 20200 yuan.
In terms of three-way battery, the price difference of ncm811 with 600 km endurance is 25800 yuan per 1GWh of three-way material cathode single car.
Regarding price transmission, Jiangsu Lopal Tech.Co.Ltd(603906) staff said: "the price of lithium carbonate has exceeded 500000 yuan / ton. Such a trend puts great pressure on the downstream, including vehicle manufacturers and battery manufacturers. It is difficult to say whether the price can be maintained. So far, it has not affected the company. Because the company can fully transmit the pressure of price rise, and the sales price of lithium iron phosphate has reached 160000 yuan / ton."
Where will lithium prices go in the future?
Is the price of 500000 yuan / ton lithium carbonate reasonable? What is the future trend?
At present, the upstream supply is still tight. Sheng Yitang said: "it is difficult to have a large number of shipments after the winter of the salt lake. After entering April and may, with the rise of the temperature, the shipment volume of Qinghai Salt Lake will steadily rise to full production, but the new production capacity of China's Salt Lake is limited during the year. 80% of the production capacity of lithium ore is overseas, and most of the production is signed out in the form of underwriting. It is difficult to change the tight supply pattern this year."
For the trend of lithium price, Zhao Bin believes that: "The rapid strengthening of demand has widened the gap between supply and demand of lithium resources in 2022. It is expected that the high price of lithium will continue until the middle of the year. If there is a shortage of lithium in the waist and tail material plants in the second half of 2021, there will also be a shortage of lithium in the head material plant in 2022. Although there is no shortage of lithium in terms of the total global storage of lithium resources, there is a short-term phenomenon of short supply. In the future, with the gradual exploitation of resources and the implementation of production expansion plans, the price of lithium will tend to be stable 。”
Farasis Energy (Gan Zhou) Co.Ltd(688567) also believes that the lithium price will remain high in the short term. "Although the spot price of 500000 / ton is higher than the long-term association price in the industry, it also reflects the market state of tight supply. Due to the long production expansion cycle in the upstream and strong demand in the downstream, the price of lithium carbonate will remain high in the short term."
In the face of such a high lithium price, how should the midstream deal with it?
Can we stock up now? Zhao Bin said: "Judging from the current market situation, the risk of hoarding lithium is very high. At present, the lithium price of 500000 / ton has seriously deviated from the basic market, and the growth rate since the beginning of 2022 is extremely rare. Whether traders or material factories, the risk of hoarding a large amount of goods at such a time point is extremely high. Due to tight supply, there is really no goods to hoard. After all, the substantial expansion of downstream power battery factories has brought a large number of orders, and the orders of some material factories may have been cancelled After half a year, we feel that the inventory of all links has been basically consumed, and the imbalance between supply and demand is a true portrayal of the market. "
If the inventory is consumed, what will the middle and downstream manufacturers do?
In fact, the soaring lithium price has also caused a rebound in the middle and lower reaches. Even after it is reported that the price of lithium carbonate exceeds 500000 yuan / ton, the middle and lower reaches manufacturers do not buy goods and receive orders. So, will the downstream reduce orders and force lithium carbonate to reduce prices?
Farasis Energy (Gan Zhou) Co.Ltd(688567) told the reporter of the daily economic news: "at present, Farasis Energy (Gan Zhou) Co.Ltd(688567) does not reduce orders. The company's orders this year have reached 14.81 GWH, and the products are in short supply. At the same time, the company actively establishes closer cooperation with manufacturers such as precursors and positive electrodes, so as to have market competitiveness at both volume and price."
"This is a normal struggle between the supply and demand sides of the market. For cathode material enterprises, if the price of lithium carbonate is expected to rise again, they can only reduce production and everyone will make such a decision." Mercer thinks.
Sheng Yitang also said: "at present, (middle and downstream manufacturers) There is a possibility of losing money in continued production. The price of battery grade lithium carbonate above 500000 / ton can not be connected by many downstream. Recently, the quotation of battery grade lithium carbonate has been basically flat and stable, and the mood of market subjects has turned to wait-and-see. The leading Middle and downstream manufacturers have fair bargaining power and can maintain a certain profit, but it will be very difficult for small and medium-sized manufacturers to be sandwiched between lithium salt smelters and terminal vehicle enterprises, and the middle links of the industrial chain will also face reshuffle. "
Can the market be cleared to force the price of lithium to fall? "If there are 3 lithium carbonate supply enterprises and 30 cathode material enterprises in the market, the seller is easy to engage in price collusion, and the buyer is the weak party. Now there are more enterprises entering the market, and 100 cathode material enterprises are more favorable to the seller. If there is no external intervention, it is not difficult to judge that the price of lithium carbonate will come down only when the cathode material enterprises can not survive and 100 enterprises return to 30 or less 。” Mercer analyzed.
However, Zhao Bin said: "although the concentration of cathode material industry is relatively high, the competition for market share among leading enterprises is also very fierce. The technical threshold of lithium iron phosphate cathode material is not very high, and there is a risk for enterprises to stop work and resist rashly. Therefore, it is difficult to really alleviate the crisis by resisting the rise of price. In the end, it is still necessary to accelerate resource exploitation to alleviate the imbalance between supply and demand."
In the face of tight supply of lithium resources, relevant competent departments have also taken action. Vice Minister of industry and information technology said at the press conference of the state information office on February 28 that this year, we will focus on meeting the production needs of power batteries, moderately accelerate the development progress of lithium, nickel and other resources in China, and crack down on unfair competition such as hoarding and raising prices. At the same time, we will improve the recycling system of power batteries, support technical breakthroughs such as efficient disassembly and recycling, and constantly improve the recycling rate and resource utilization efficiency.
