“Last weekend, the intermediary has been urging me to negotiate the price, saying that the market has warmed up recently, the trading volume has increased, and the house is cost-effective and does not worry about selling.” Su Juan (pseudonym) has been looking at the house for more than a year and is still hesitating whether to “get on the bus” now.
On March 16, the National Bureau of statistics released the house price data of 70 cities in February. The data showed that the price of second-hand houses in Beijing rose by 0.7% and 7.4% respectively year-on-year in February, ranking second and first in 70 cities respectively. The price of second-hand houses in Beijing rose for three consecutive months, ranking first in 70 cities for nearly six months.
In contrast, according to the data of Beijing housing and Urban Rural Development Commission, 8260 second-hand houses were sold in Beijing in February, down 30% month on month, and the trading volume fell for two consecutive months.
Why did the price rise and volume fall in Beijing’s second-hand housing market recently? According to the experience of previous years, the property market gradually entered the traditional “xiaoyangchun” in March. How about the “xiaoyangchun” in Beijing’s second-hand housing market this year?
february, the rise of second-hand house prices in Beijing fell
According to the data of the National Bureau of statistics, the price of second-hand houses in Beijing changed from decline to rise in December last year, with a month on month increase of 0.8%, which is the city with the largest increase in the price of second-hand houses in 70 cities. It is believed that the main reason for the “relaxation of second-hand real estate demand” in Beijing’s first-line real estate market is that families have been the first to relax their demand for second-hand real estate.
in January this year, the price of second-hand houses in Beijing increased by 0.5% month on month, the highest in China. By February, the price of second-hand housing in Beijing had risen for three consecutive months. Under the background of unstable expectations of the real estate industry, market depression and repeated epidemic, it is rare for second-hand housing prices to rise continuously .
Guo Yi, chief analyst of Heshuo institution, pointed out to the 21st Century Business Herald that the rise in second-hand housing prices in Beijing in February was mainly affected by structural factors. As far as the current situation is concerned, just in need people are relatively sensitive to changes in house prices, but improving people pay more attention to house quality, location, supporting resources and property services, and are less sensitive to changes in second-hand house prices than just in need people. In February, the demand for improvement in Beijing was relatively strong, driving the structural rise of second-hand housing prices in Beijing.
In addition, families with demand for educational resources generally need to buy houses and settle down before May to meet the demand for admission in that year. Therefore, some families with children’s educational needs are also stepping up the purchase of houses, raising the average price of second-hand houses in Beijing.
“Generally, the housing turnover of the school district in the first half of the year will be higher.” Guo Yi said. This also means that the impact of school district housing transactions on second-hand housing prices in Beijing will continue for some time.
Compared with the same period last year, the price of second-hand houses in Beijing has increased rapidly recently. According to the data of the National Bureau of statistics, Beijing’s second-hand housing prices rose 7.4% year-on-year in February, ranking first among 70 cities. It should be noted that since September last year, the year-on-year increase of second-hand housing prices in Beijing has ranked first in 70 cities for six consecutive months, with an increase of 7.4% – 9.7%
Meng Xinxin, an analyst of the index division of the China Index Research Institute, told the 21st Century Business Herald that affected by the epidemic, the overall price of second-hand housing in Beijing was low in 2020. In the second half of 2021, the second-hand housing market in Beijing cooled down, but the price did not drop significantly. Superimposed on the recent strengthening of homeowners’ expectations, the year-on-year increase of second-hand housing in Beijing has been high in recent months.
Specific to February, Guo Yi believes that in February last year, Beijing’s second-hand housing market was at an inflection point from low to warm, and the market performance was sluggish. Although the second-hand housing market in Beijing was still at a low point in February this year, with the easing of credit, the second-hand housing market in Beijing has gradually warmed up. Therefore, the year-on-year increase of the second-hand housing market in Beijing in February this year is relatively high, “this is a phased change”.
Different from the price rise, according to the data of Beijing housing and Urban Rural Development Commission, since the trading volume of second-hand houses in Beijing was 15542 units in December last year, breaking the market heat reference line of 15000 units, the trading volume of second-hand houses in Beijing fell continuously from January to February this year, with 11875 units and 8260 units respectively
Meng Xinxin said that the overall performance of second-hand housing sales in Beijing in 2021 was good, and the market began to decline since July, but the sales of second-hand housing in Beijing gradually rebounded in the fourth quarter. January February is the traditional off-season of Beijing’s second-hand housing market. Affected by the epidemic, the number of second-hand housing shows and transactions in Beijing decreased in January this year. February coincides with the Spring Festival holiday, with a large number of people returning home, coupled with the strengthened expectation of homeowners, buyers’ wait-and-see mood is obvious, the trading volume is less in February, and the trading volume of second-hand houses in Beijing is expected to rise month on month in March.
listing price becomes higher and transaction area differentiation
According to market habits, the real estate market has gradually entered the “little sunny spring” since March.
“There were more people looking at and buying houses in Beijing last weekend. The average house price in our area increased by about 3% compared with that of years ago.” Chaoyang District housing agent Wang Hong (a pseudonym) talked to the 21st Century Business Herald reporter.
Wang Hong mainly serves the second-hand housing market in the Asian Games Village. The comprehensive conditions of transportation, living facilities and educational resources in the Asian Games Village are good, and the market recognition is high, so the recent market heat is high. According to another housing agent, the second-hand housing market in Zuojiazhuang area has also seen prices rise and transactions become faster.
Su Juan’s purchase intention area is also Chaoyang District. According to Su Juan’s observation, the number of newly listed houses is indeed much higher than that years ago, but there are not many transactions so far.
“I really want to buy it, but I haven’t seen a particularly satisfied house. I feel that the market hasn’t warmed up as much as the intermediary said. There are several houses that I’m seven or eight points satisfied with. Up to now, no one has negotiated the price.” Su Juan told the 21st Century Business Herald reporter.
Due to the limited budget and high regional requirements, Su Juan is very tangled in buying a house. Most of the houses within Su Juan’s budget are older. Many houses with appropriate prices either have no elevator, the floor is high, or the house type is poor. The first floor of the house Su Juan went to see last weekend was the ground floor. The actual floor was the fourth floor. There was a big tree outside the window. “There are some problems with this house. I’m still hesitating.”
Similar to the situation in Chaoyang, a number of housing agents in Fengtai told the 21st Century Business Herald that the price of newly listed second-hand houses in Fengtai has also increased to a certain extent, but the transactions in some regions were less than expected.
Zhang Qi (a pseudonym), a senior housing agent in Fengtai, told the 21st Century Business Herald reporter that the prices of newly listed houses after the year are mostly higher than the market price, and many homeowners focus on listing and selling houses after the year. However, there is a deviation between the expectations of homeowners and buyers, and the trading volume of their stores is lower than that of years ago.
“For houses of the same house type, some of the current quotation can be 3 Shenzhen Fountain Corporation(000005) 00000 yuan lower than that of a year ago. There are indeed many people looking at the house, but when compared with the previous price, many are deterred.” Zhang Qi sighed, “the expected price of home buyers still stays at last year and can’t communicate with the homeowner.”
Guo Yi pointed out that there is regional differentiation in the transaction and price of Beijing’s second-hand housing market. Relatively speaking, the prices of second-hand houses with “hard core value” such as school districts have risen relatively fast. For example, the trading volume of second-hand houses around industrial agglomeration areas such as Wangjing, East Third Ring Road and Fourth Ring Road, Beijing Centergate Technologies (Holding) Co.Ltd(000931) , Yizhuang is more vigorous, and the prices have also increased slightly. In the absence of the above driving factors to boost the housing value, the second-hand housing market in many areas is still relatively low.
The recent epidemic situation in Beijing has been repeated, but many market participants believe that it has little impact on the overall second-hand housing market in Beijing.
Guo Yi believes that Beijing’s demand for second-hand housing is not only related to policy warming and macroeconomic trend, but also related to the individual employment and income of home buyers, but also affected by the rotation of selling old and buying new transactions
Guo Yi believes that from the situation in the first half of the year, the overall good of the market is greater than the bad, and the trading volume of second-hand houses in Beijing may appear the phenomenon of “xiaoyangchun”.
