Key investment points
Recent market conditions
Issuance achievement rate: 1.5% According to the rating, the issuance success rates of AAA, AA +, AA and AA certificates of deposit in the third week of March were 94%, 51%, 48% and 47% respectively. The achievement rate of AAA and AA + certificates of deposit increased, and the achievement rate of AA and AA certificates of deposit decreased. 2. According to banks, the achievement rates of deposit certificates issued by joint-stock banks, urban commercial banks and rural commercial banks were 98%, 73% and 83% respectively. The achievement rate of rural commercial banks decreased, while the achievement rate of joint-stock banks and urban commercial banks increased.
Credit spread: 1 According to the rating, the credit spreads of AAA -, AA +, AA -, AA -, a +, a – and A-grade inter-bank certificates of deposit in the third week of March were 1.09bps, 6bps, 11bps, 21bps, 54bps, 87bps and 124bps respectively 2. According to the banks, the credit spreads of certificates of deposit issued by urban commercial banks and rural commercial banks are 20bps and 23bps respectively.
Overview of issuing market
Interest rates of interbank certificates of deposit for each term: the interest rates of interbank certificates of deposit for each term in the third week of March are:
2.41% in one month, 2.51% in three months and 2.66% in six months. Compared with last week, the issuing interest rate of certificates of deposit for one month, three months and six months increased by 2bps, 1bps and 1bps respectively.
Number of issuance: in the third week of March, 667 interbank certificates of deposit were issued, raising 693.7 billion yuan, and the issuance scale decreased compared with last week. As of March 18, there were 16757 inter-bank certificates of deposit in stock, totaling 143153 billion yuan.
Term structure of issuance: compared with the previous week, in the third week of March, the proportion of 3-month and 1-year interbank certificates of deposit decreased, and the proportion of 1-month, 6-month and 9-month interbank certificates of deposit increased.
Main structure of issuance: compared with the previous week, the proportion of joint-stock banks issuing interbank certificates of deposit increased in the third week of March, while the proportion of state-owned commercial banks, urban commercial banks and rural commercial banks decreased. The issuance proportion of joint-stock banks, urban commercial banks, state-owned commercial banks and rural commercial banks was 50.3%, 31.1%, 10.9% and 5.9% respectively.
Issuing bank: in the third week of March, Shanghai Pudong Development Bank issued interbank certificates of deposit of 44.1 billion yuan, ranking first, and China China Everbright Bank Company Limited Co.Ltd(601818) issued 29.3 billion yuan, ranking second.
Overview of holders of interbank certificates of deposit
Holder structure: by the end of February 2022, the total amount of certificates of deposit entrusted in Shanghai clearing house was 145133 billion yuan, an increase over the previous month. Among them, the broad fund held 8222.5 billion yuan, accounting for 56.7%, an increase over the previous month; Commercial banks held 5143.6 billion yuan, accounting for 35.4%, down from the previous month; Non bank institutions and others held 1147.2 billion yuan, accounting for 7.9%, down from the previous month.
Overview of Bank Holdings: by the end of February 2022, rural commercial banks had held certificates of deposit of 2295.7 billion yuan, accounting for 44.6%, an increase over the previous month; State owned commercial banks held 1087.7 billion yuan of certificates of deposit, accounting for 21.1%, an increase over the previous month; City commercial banks held 511 billion yuan of certificates of deposit, accounting for 9.9%, an increase over the previous month; Policy banks held 487.6 billion yuan of certificates of deposit, accounting for 9.5%, down from the previous month; Stock banks held 162.6 billion yuan of certificates of deposit, accounting for 3.2%, down from the previous month.
Risk warning: unexpected changes in regulatory policies and unexpected exposure of credit risks.
