Core conclusion: ① from the perspective of trade, the industries greatly affected by the Russia Ukraine incident are mainly concentrated in three directions:
Shenzhen Agricultural Products Group Co.Ltd(000061) , energy and raw materials. ② Shenzhen Agricultural Products Group Co.Ltd(000061) among them, sunflower seed oil (the export of Russia and Ukraine accounts for about 80% of the world), wheat (25%), corn (17%) and fertilizer (15%) have a great impact. ③ Among energy and raw materials, crude oil (Russia's exports account for 11% of the world's total), natural gas (16%), some gases for semiconductor production and non-ferrous metals such as palladium, platinum and nickel have a great impact. ④ According to the calculation of China's import / total import ratio from Russia and Ukraine, the commodities that China relies on highly on Russia and Ukraine include wood, potash fertilizer, grain, fossil fuel, lead, nickel, platinum, aluminum, copper, etc.
Key export areas of Ukraine: gases for agriculture and semiconductor production. By analyzing the proportion of various resource products in the global supply chain, we find that Ukraine plays an important role in the supply of Shenzhen Agricultural Products Group Co.Ltd(000061) and some rare gases: Shenzhen Agricultural Products Group Co.Ltd(000061) in 2021, although Ukraine's corn output accounted for only 3% and wheat output only 4%, Ukraine is the fourth largest exporter of corn and wheat in the world. In 2021, Ukraine's corn export accounted for 14% and wheat export accounted for 10% of the world. In addition to major crops such as corn and wheat, Ukraine also has a great impact on the global supply of sunflower oil. In 2021, the output of sunflower oil in Ukraine accounted for 31% of the world and the export volume accounted for 47%. Besides Shenzhen Agricultural Products Group Co.Ltd(000061) , Ukraine is also a major supplier of rare gases such as neon, krypton and xenon, which are important materials in chip semiconductor production. Trendforce research shows that Ukraine supplies about 70% of the world's neon gas, about 40% of krypton gas and 30% of xenon gas.
Key export areas of Russia: energy, agriculture and metal minerals. Similar to Ukraine, Russia is also a traditional resource-based country. By analyzing the proportion of Russia in the global supply of various resource products, we find that Russia has a great influence on the supply of energy, agriculture, metal minerals and other related commodities. In terms of energy, Russia's share in global crude oil and natural gas exports reached 11% and 16% respectively in 2021, making it the largest country in natural gas exports. Metals: the output and export volume of palladium, platinum, nickel and other metals in Russia account for a high proportion in the world. According to the US Geological Survey, Russia is the largest producer of palladium. In 2021, Russia's Palladium production accounted for 37% of global production, and Russia's Palladium exports also accounted for 25% of global total exports. In addition to palladium, nickel, platinum and gold account for a high proportion of Russian metal production in the world, accounting for about 10% of global production. In terms of agriculture, Russia is the world's largest wheat exporter. In 2021, Russia's wheat output accounted for about 10% of the world and its export volume accounted for about 16% of the world. In other Shenzhen Agricultural Products Group Co.Ltd(000061) aspects, the global proportion of Russian sunflower oil exports is also high. In 2021, Russian sunflower oil exports accounted for 30% of the total global exports.
In addition, in the chemical fertilizer industry chain, Russia is the world's largest exporter of chemical fertilizers. The amount of chemical fertilizers such as ammonia, potassium fertilizer and urea exported by Russia accounts for about 15% of global exports.
China relies on Russia and Ukraine for part of its imports Shenzhen Agricultural Products Group Co.Ltd(000061) , energy and metals. As for China, structurally, some Shenzhen Agricultural Products Group Co.Ltd(000061) , energy and metals imported by China are highly dependent on Russia and Ukraine. In agriculture, China has a large demand for wood, fertilizer, vegetable oil, corn and barley from Russia and Ukraine. In terms of energy, in view of China's national conditions of rich coal, poor oil and little gas, China's dependence on crude oil and natural gas imports has been high in the past, and Russia is an important trading object of China's energy imports. In 2021, about 26% of China's coal, 16% of crude oil and 6% of natural gas imports came from Russia. In terms of metals, the metals with more than 10% of Russia's import share in China are lead, nickel, platinum, aluminum and copper.
Risk tip: geopolitical risks have further escalated, and the deterioration of the epidemic has affected global trade.
