As a financial professional media that has been deeply involved in the field of listed companies for a long time and pays attention to the development of the new economy, the Intelligent Logistics Research Institute under the daily economic news and the future business think tank under the daily economic news have regularly launched the China Express Logistics health monitoring report every month since October 2020. We try to build industry data with postal service as the core, industrial chain data with bureau of statistics as the core and market data with secondary market value as the core, so as to form a “three-dimensional data” staggered by XYZ axis, so as to more accurately locate the health index of China’s express logistics industry.
In the 15th report, through the continuous tracking of the official authoritative industry data of the State Post Office, we analyzed the overall level of the express industry in November 2021, focusing on the service problems of express enterprises and the quality evaluation of enterprise complaint handling.
According to the data of the State Post Office, in November 2021, the business volume of national express service enterprises completed 11.33 billion pieces, a year-on-year increase of 16.5%; Business income reached 107.49 billion yuan, a year-on-year increase of 12.0%. From January to November, the business volume of national express service enterprises completed 98.05 billion pieces, a year-on-year increase of 32.3%; Business revenue totaled 941.47 billion yuan, a year-on-year increase of 19.6%.
This month, with the full opening of the double 11 e-commerce Festival, the annual performance competition in the express industry also entered a white hot. On November 1, Zhongtong, Yunda and Yuantong announced that they received more than 100 million packages, postal announced that the business volume of that day was 60 million, and Shentong was also more than 60 million. In the whole November, Yunda led Shentong and Yuantong in the growth of express business volume, and Yuantong ranked first in the growth of express business revenue.
in terms of express service, due to the surge in express business brought by the peak season, the complaint rate of express service also increased significantly in November, with a month on month increase of 29.8% and a year-on-year increase of 62.9%. In the comprehensive evaluation of the quality of enterprise complaint handling by the State Post Office, we noted that the average comprehensive index of complaint handling of 20 major express enterprises was 93.05, 13 express enterprises were higher than the average and 7 were lower than the average. Among them, deppon complaint handling composite index led for the first time, while Yunda, Baishi and Shentong, which fell off the black list last month, returned to the red list.
in terms of express logistics industry chain, from January to November, the national online retail sales reached 11874.9 billion yuan, a year-on-year increase of 15.4%. Among them, the online retail sales of physical goods reached 98056 billion yuan, a year-on-year increase of 13.2%; It accounted for 24.5% of the total retail sales of social consumer goods, an increase of 0.8 percentage points from January to October.
at the capital market level, “Tongda” express companies achieved a significant increase in share price in November. In addition to the market’s recognition of the end of the “price war” version 1.0, there is also the effect of the stable and good operation of 6.8 billion express during the “double 11”. The orderly and efficient operation of the express industry has been highly recognized by shareholders, merchants and users, The express concept sector also rose 7.9% in November.
Zheshang Securities Co.Ltd(601878) believes that the marginal repair level of e-commerce Express has begun to evolve from “unit price repair” to “profit repair”, and continues to be optimistic about the operating data and steady realization of profits.
In November, there were 34800 express service complaints, with a year-on-year increase of 62.9%, and the delay and loss of express were significantly increased month on month
According to the notice on the complaints of users in the postal express industry in November 2021 (hereinafter referred to as the “notice”) issued by the State Post Office, there were 34848 complaints about express service problems in November, an increase of 29.8% month on month and 62.9% year-on-year.
The main problems of express service complaints are the loss and shortage of express, delay and damage of express, accounting for 28.6%, 24.6% and 22.5% of the total complaints respectively. The obvious month on month growth is the delay and shortage of express. Chart source: National Post Office
The main proportion of complaints about loss and shortage of express mail is dissatisfaction with the compensation amount of the enterprise, the main proportion of complaints about delay of express mail is transit or transportation delay, and the main proportion of complaints about damage of express mail is dissatisfaction with the compensation amount of the enterprise.
There were 4159 effective complaints from users about express service problems, with a month on month increase of 40% and a year-on-year increase of 76.5%. The main problems of effective complaints of express service are express delay, lack of express loss and delivery service, which account for 33.2%, 26.4% and 26% of the total effective complaints respectively, showing an increasing trend month on month.
The average complaint rate of express delivery in peak season increased month on month and year on year, but the complaint rate of SF and JD decreased significantly
According to the data, the average appeal rate (million express business volume) of national express enterprises in November was 2.80, and the average effective appeal rate was 0.33. Among the main problems complained by users to express enterprises, the average complaint rate of express loss and shortage is 0.80, the average complaint rate of express delay is 0.69, the average complaint rate of express damage is 0.63, and the average complaint rate of delivery service is 0.51.
Compared with last month, the complaint rate of the whole express industry increased in November. In addition to the high complaint rate of overseas express companies, the complaint rate of home express delivery increased significantly this month, second only to UPS, and the main complaint reason is delay. Deppon express, which focuses on large express delivery, has a higher damage complaint rate than other companies, followed by SF express and Yousu, but both have declined compared with last month.
This month, Sto Express Co.Ltd(002468) complaint rate ranked first among “Tongda system”, which is also the first change of ownership of the company with the highest complaint rate of “Tongda system” in 2021 (Yuantong from January to October). This month, Sto Express Co.Ltd(002468) complaint rate was 2.27, higher than 1.58 last month, but lower than JD logistics and SF. Yuantong’s appeal rate increased to 2.18 from 1.62 last month, and Yunda Express’s appeal rate slightly increased to 0.99 from 0.81; The complaint rate of China Communications rose from 0.34 to 0.43.
Since 2021, the complaint rate of SF Express has been higher than that of Tongda system. However, the complaint rate of SF Express has decreased this month. While the complaint rates of Tongda system have increased, the complaint rate of SF Express has decreased from 6.49 to 4.27, while in JD system, the complaint rate of JD Express is also decreasing, from 5.09 to 4.32; The appeal rate of trans express was 2.55, a slight increase compared with the previous month.
It is worth mentioning that the complaint rate of extreme rabbit Express has been at a low level since 2021. In November, extreme rabbit express still maintained a low complaint rate and became the express company with the lowest complaint rate, with a complaint rate of 0.41, a slight increase over the previous month.
However, due to the huge package volume base of “Tongda system”. According to the calculation formula of appeal rate (number of appeals / million express business volume), the value of access coefficient will be low to a certain extent. Therefore, this figure can be used as a reference in the era of super large-scale industry, but it can not fully and objectively reflect the enterprise service level.
Deppon composite index led Yunda, Baishi and Shentong back to the red list for the first time
According to the announcement data, in November 2021, the average comprehensive index of complaint handling of 20 major express enterprises was 93.05, 13 express enterprises were higher than the average and 7 were lower than the average. Source: National Post Office
This month, the comprehensive index of complaint handling of two companies reached full marks, namely Suning.Com Co.Ltd(002024) and Sinotrans air transportation. It is worth mentioning that after the significant growth of the comprehensive index last month, deppon express, which is good at large express, continued to maintain its advantages this month. This month, deppon express ranked second with a comprehensive index of 99.73, and ranked first among the eight listed express companies for the first time.
After falling into the black list in September, SF appeared on the red list for two consecutive months in October and November, but ranked lower than Tongda (except Yuantong), Jingdong and Jitu, and only higher than Baishi express, which has just returned to the red list from the black list.
The comprehensive index of complaint handling work is the comprehensive evaluation of the quality of enterprise complaint handling work by the State Post Office, which is ranked from high to low according to the level of enterprise complaint handling work. When the comprehensive index is the same, it shall be arranged in ascending order according to the first letter of the enterprise name Pinyin.
The comprehensive index assessment parameters include five indicators: one-time case closing rate, overdue rate, enterprise response non-standard rate, enterprise response untrue rate and job satisfaction rate. (the data is generated automatically by the system).
This month, there were 7 companies below the average, one less than the previous month, namely Yousu, leapfrog express, civil aviation express, disifang, UPS, FedEx, Yto Express Group Co.Ltd(600233) . In the access system, Yunda and Shentong returned to the red list, and only Yuantong remained in the black list.
It is worth mentioning that since 2021, Zhongtong and Jitu express have continued to appear in the red list and ranked at the top of the red list. Debang Express has also ranked at the top for three consecutive months, higher than Tongda (except Zhongtong), SF and JD logistics.
The price of single ticket in the peak season of e-commerce increased year-on-year, and the growth rate of Shentong’s business volume exceeded that of Yuantong
Entering the traditional e-commerce peak season in November, the business volume and single ticket revenue of express enterprises have ushered in a certain increase. According to the statistics of the State Post Office, in November, the National Express business volume completed 11.33 billion pieces, a year-on-year increase of 16.5%; Business income reached 107.49 billion yuan, a year-on-year increase of 12.0%. Data source: announcement of listed companies
Specifically, SF’s express logistics business revenue in November was 16.245 billion yuan, a year-on-year increase of 15.43%; The revenue from supply chain and international business was 9.611 billion yuan, a year-on-year increase of 639.31%. The company’s total operating revenue in November reached 25.856 billion yuan, a year-on-year significant increase of 68.19%.
The revenue of express products in November was 4.512 billion yuan, a year-on-year increase of 27.35%; Business completed 1.745 billion tickets, a year-on-year increase of 13.38%; The single ticket revenue of express products was 2.59 yuan, a year-on-year increase of 12.33%.
Yunda Holding Co.Ltd(002120) in November, the revenue of express service business was 4.473 billion yuan, a year-on-year increase of 20.70%; The business volume reached 1.883 billion tickets, a year-on-year increase of 19.03%; The single ticket income of express service was 2.38 yuan, a year-on-year increase of 1.71%.
Sto Express Co.Ltd(002468) in November, the revenue of express service business was 2.907 billion yuan, a year-on-year increase of 19.88%; The business volume was 1.182 billion tickets, a year-on-year increase of 16.65%; The single ticket revenue of express service was 2.46 yuan, a year-on-year increase of 2.93%.
From the perspective of single ticket income of express products, the single ticket income of express services of the three companies increased positively year-on-year. Among them, Yto Express Group Co.Ltd(600233) single ticket revenue increased the most, up to 12.33%, Sto Express Co.Ltd(002468) single ticket revenue increased by nearly 3%, and Yunda and Shunfeng single ticket revenue increased by 1.71% and 1.41% respectively.
In the basic business data, Yunda’s express business volume grew ahead of Shentong and Yuantong, while last month, Shentong’s growth rate ranked first in the industry. Previously, Shentong led the chain growth of business volume for four consecutive months from June to October.
However, under the catalysis of the “double 11” e-commerce Festival, express companies also ushered in the peak of business volume in 2021. Public data show that on November 1, 2021, Zhongtong Yunda Yuantong received more than 100 million orders, postal 60 million orders and Shentong more than 60 million orders. With the slowdown of the price war, the peak season has a great test on capacity reserve and transit. Tongda Express has given up some low-cost orders, and the industry unit price continues to rise.
On November 18, the monitoring data of the State Post Office showed that during the “double 11” period in 2021 (from November 1 to 16), postal and express enterprises across the country received 6.8 billion express packages, a year-on-year increase of 18.2%; A total of 6.3 billion express packages were delivered, a year-on-year increase of 16.2%.
However, compared with previous years, the growth rate of double 11 business volume in the express industry slowed down in 2021. Guotai Junan Securities Co.Ltd(601211) the research report shows that the growth rate of double 11 slowed down, and the peak reappeared and fell. The total turnover of the whole network was 952.3 billion yuan, a year-on-year increase of 13.4%, down from 29% in 2020; Tmall’s turnover increased by 8.5% year-on-year, slower than 26% in 2020; The balance payment for double 11 transactions was smooth, with a year-on-year increase of 65% from January to March. Short term fundamentals improve and return to benign competition in the long term.
Zheshang Securities Co.Ltd(601878) believes that the marginal repair level of e-commerce Express has begun to evolve from “unit price repair” to “profit repair”, and continues to be optimistic about the operating data and steady realization of profits.
Tongda’s share price rose together, and Baishi’s share price plunged for two consecutive months
Closing price and market value of listed express companies in November
In November, affected by the business volume growth brought by the peak season of e-commerce in the whole industry, the share prices of express listed companies also gradually warmed up. Throughout November, the express concept sector increased by 7.9%, of which the share price of “Tongda” rose by more than 5%, and Yto Express Group Co.Ltd(600233) led eight listed companies with a share price increase of 10.41%.
However, except for Tongda, the share prices of other companies suffered a decline in November. Among them, the share price of Baishi group plummeted by 35.4%, and JD logistics and Deppon Logistics Co.Ltd(603056) also fell by more than 10%.
After experiencing a decline in share price in October, SF’s share price showed a trend of first growth and then decline in November. Before double 11, SF’s share price rose steadily, while in the second half of the month, SF’s share price fell.
Among them, during the “double 11” period, SF’s daily maximum processing volume and total business volume will reach a new record high. The predicted collection volume is about 2.5 times that of ordinary working days, and the delivery volume is about 2.2 times that of ordinary working days. This also directly led to the rise of SF’s share price on the day of double 11.
On November 16, S.F.Holding Co.Ltd(002352) issued the issuance report and listing announcement of non-public issuance of A-Shares in 2021, which marked the full completion of SF’s 20 billion fixed additional shares. According to the announced use plan of the raised funds, 6 billion yuan is used for the automatic upgrading of express transportation equipment, 4 billion yuan is used for the new transfer center project of Hubei Ezhou civil airport, 3 billion yuan is used for the construction of digital intelligent supply chain system solutions, and the remaining funds are used for the improvement of land transportation capacity, the purchase and maintenance of aviation materials and the supplement of working capital.
However, on the day after the announcement (November 17), SF’s share price fell slightly by 0.22%, and on November 18, SF’s share price rose by 3.27%. To some extent, it can represent the attitude of capital. When the performance of SF was frustrated in the first quarter of 2021, the market once doubted whether SF’s fixed increase could be issued smoothly. Although the fixed increase issuance scale was high, SF still received nearly twice the subscription, and the total subscription scale reached 39.4 billion yuan, which means that investors are optimistic about SF’s long-term profit prospects.
In addition, SF also gradually enriched its business segments other than express. After SF confirmed the listing of HKEx in the same city, on November 24, Fengyi technology, a terminal distribution UAV company of SF, announced that it had completed a round of financing of hundreds of millions of yuan. This round of financing is an important measure for SF group to introduce strategic partners in the field of low altitude logistics network construction. At the same time, it is also a useful exploration to strengthen enterprises to meet the growing personalized logistics needs of end users.
However, despite frequent actions, the double 11 also achieved good results. SF’s share price still fell throughout November. As of the closing on November 30, SF’s share price was 61.23 yuan, down 5.26% month on month.
After the sharp decline in the share price last month, this month, affected by the double 11 on the one hand and the favorable financial results in the third quarter on the other hand, the share price of Zhongtong express increased greatly and exceeded the highest share price of the year of US $34.82. Among them, on November 11, Zhongtong’s share price rose by 4.08%, while on the second day of the third quarter financial report disclosure (November 19), Zhongtong’s share price once rose by the limit.
On November 18, China Express announced its unaudited financial results for the third quarter of 2021. According to the financial report data, the revenue of Q3 Zhongtong express in 2021 was 7.39 billion yuan, an increase of 11.3% over the same period last year; The net profit was RMB 1.148 billion, a year-on-year decrease of 5.2%. After excluding the one-time impact of 2019 income tax return received in 2020, the comparable net profit increased by 13.7% over the same period last year. In terms of express business volume, the financial report shows that the Q3 package volume of Zhongtong express is 5.7 billion, a year-on-year increase of 23.3%, the average daily business volume exceeds 63 million tickets, and the market share is 20.8%. In addition, China Express expects that the annual package volume will be 22.2-22.7 billion in 2021, with a year-on-year increase of 30.6% – 33.5%.
Overall, with the slowdown of the express price war, the competition in the express industry began to return to rationality, but scale and efficiency are still the key to win in the future. Especially under the coercion of capital, new and old players began to step into the eve of industry liquidation, and the industry differentiation has reached the top enterprises. Therefore, consolidating the business foundation is the premise. At the same time, optimizing resource allocation and building a recyclable ecology have also become the choice of many top players.
As of November 30, the share price of Zhongtong express was US $31.61, with a total market value of US $25.54 billion.
Compared with the decline in the share price last month, the share price of Yunda express showed an upward trend this month. Among them, the share price of Yunda express rose 5.45% on the day of double 11 and the limit on November 19. Since 2021, Yunda Express’s share price has experienced several price limits and attracted the attention of the CSRC.
However, Yunda express is also facing more fierce market competition. On the one hand, it is the direct pursuit of Yuantong and Shentong: throughout the third quarter, the growth rate of Yuantong express business exceeded Yunda. On the other hand, it is the competition for market share by express companies such as Jitu. At the same time, with the tightening of market supervision, Yunda is also facing new challenges.
As of November 30, the share price of Yunda express was 19.88 yuan, up 6.48% month on month.
Unlike the stock price recovery of “Tongda system” in the peak season of double 11 e-commerce, the share price of deppon express experienced a significant decline this month. During double 11, deppon had a layout in large express, but did not announce the performance growth. Since 2021, deppon’s share price has fluctuated greatly. For capital, we look forward to the follow-up impact of its marriage with Yunda. However, so far, neither party has made greater actions, which may affect the attitude of capital to a certain extent.
As of November 30, Debon’s share price closed at 9.75 yuan, down 10.71% month on month, with a total market value of 10.013 billion yuan.
Since September, Yuantong’s share price has changed its decline in the first three quarters and opened a crazy rising mode. After rising continuously in September and October, Yuantong’s share price ushered in a new high in November.
On November 18, Yto Express Group Co.Ltd(600233) had an intraday high of 15.98 yuan, and the share price hit a new high in nearly a year. As of the closing of the day, the latest price of Yto Express Group Co.Ltd(600233) was 15.7 yuan, up 6.8%. On November 19, the highest intraday price of Yto Express Group Co.Ltd(600233) was 17.25 yuan, and the share price hit a new high of nearly a year for two consecutive days.
Prior to that, Yto Express Group Co.Ltd(600233) the previous share price peak of nearly a year appeared on October 22, 2021. For the industry, it is more looking forward to the development of its fixed increase of 2 billion yuan.
As of the closing on November 30, Yuantong’s share price was 16.12 yuan, up 10.41% month on month.
In the fourth quarter, Sto Express Co.Ltd(002468) also started to catch up, and both business volume growth and stock price growth “came from behind”. In November, Sto Express Co.Ltd(002468) shares rose 7.38% month on month, and in the performance in November, the express business volume of Shentong also increased rapidly. On November 19, Shentong’s share price rose by the limit.
As of November 30, the share price of Shentong was 8.29 yuan, with a total market value of 12.692 billion yuan.
In November, the negative sentiment in the capital market about “Jitu’s acquisition of Baishi China Express business” continued to ferment, which also led to the “freezing point” of the market value of Baishi group, with a total market value of only US $405 million. On October 29, Jitu express and Baishi group jointly announced that they had reached a strategic cooperation intention. Jitu will acquire Baishi group’s China Express business at a price of about 6.8 billion yuan (US $1.1 billion).
On November 17, Baishi group released its unaudited financial results for the third quarter of 2021 (Q3). According to the summary of financial report, the revenue of Baishi group in this quarter was 6.812 billion yuan, a year-on-year decrease of 14.6%. The net loss was 655 million yuan, compared with 566 million yuan in the same period last year. In the third quarter, the express business of Baishi group was still in a negative growth trend, with a revenue of 3.988 billion yuan and 5.091 billion yuan in the same period last year, a year-on-year decrease of 21.7%, accounting for 58.5% of the total revenue. On October 29, Baishi group transferred its China Express business to J & T extreme rabbit express at a price of about 6.8 billion yuan (about US $1.1 billion). According to the performance report of Baishi group in the third quarter of 2021, the transfer of China Express business by Baishi express will be completed in the first quarter of 2022 (Q1).
After breaking away from the express business, Baishi group is currently positioned as a “smart supply chain solution and logistics service provider”. In such a new direction, one is how far Baishi can go, and the other is whether it can harvest the expectation and trust of the capital market.
As of the closing on November 30, Baishi’s share price was $1.04, down 35.40% month on month, becoming the express company with the largest decline in share price for two consecutive months.
In November, the share price of JD logistics also fell month on month, and the market value fell by 19.52% in November. On November 18, JD logistics announced that the revenue of JD logistics in the third quarter was 25.7 billion yuan, an increase of 43.37% over the same period last year; The operating loss was 727 million yuan, compared with a profit of 83.249 million yuan in the same period last year.
However, it is worth mentioning that in the third quarter, the proportion of external customer revenue of JD logistics continued to exceed 50%, and reached a new high in this quarter. In addition, as of September 30, 2021, JD logistics operated about 1300 warehouses. Including the cloud warehouse area managed by JD logistics, the total storage area exceeds 23 million square meters.
(Daily Economic News)
