After two consecutive days of rebound, it is also expected that today (March 18) A shares entered a state of shock and rest. The Shanghai and Shenzhen stock markets opened low across the board, and then the pattern of Shanghai strong and Shenzhen weak was obvious. The gem index fluctuated and fell all the way. The Shanghai index rose and turned red for the first time, and then weakened with the shock of the Shenzhen Composite Index and the gem index.
From the disk point of view, energy stocks are on the rise, coal and steel sectors are outstanding, while green buildings, green power and other sectors are also catching up. Among them, in the green power sector, China Southern Power Grid Energy Efficiency&Clean Energy Co.Ltd(003035) , Chn Energy Changyuan Electric Power Co.Ltd(000966) , Datang Huayin Electric Power Co.Ltd(600744) , Gcl Energy Technology Co.Ltd(002015) , Henan Yuneng Holdings Co.Ltd(001896) , Yunnan Energy Investment Co.Ltd(002053) , etc. staged a rising tide. In addition, pork, agricultural planting and other sectors are also ready to move, with prominent local profit-making effect.
Shanxi Securities Co.Ltd(002500) said that the bottom of the market is gradually emerging. It is suggested to pay attention to the allocation opportunities formed after the oversold in a relatively cautious manner, focus on the market value and growth style of the market, and continue to pay attention to the real estate, building materials and other sectors that are expected to benefit from the continuous overweight of “steady growth”, as well as high boom track stocks such as new energy and medicine.
At present, under the background of scattered A-share hotspots and intensified sector rotation, possible investment opportunities are hidden. Select some institutional research reports. Let’s see what themes are available for reference.
[theme 1] green power
Everbright Securities Company Limited(601788) said that in the context of double carbon, it is expected that more energy storage policies will be implemented in 2022 to further rationalize the business model of energy storage and accelerate the development of energy storage industry. In the context of accelerating the construction of a new power system, the power grid investment increased during the 14th Five Year Plan period, and there were great opportunities for structural investment in some fields.
Northeast Securities Co.Ltd(000686) mentioned that in recent years, the rapid progress of new energy technology has led to the continuous decline of the acquisition cost of green power, and the large-scale application of green power has gradually become realistic and economical. The energy revolution in which green power gradually replaces oil and gas as the main energy has become an inevitable trend.
According to the further analysis of the agency, we predict that the scale of wind power construction market may reach 794 billion in 2022. Hydropower investment is expected to remain at about 100 billion yuan per year. The development of nuclear power as a clean base load power source is expected to accelerate. Due to the rhythm of wind and solar appliances and the regional differences between their places of origin and consumption, their development will also drive the construction of energy storage and UHV power grid.
Northeast Securities Co.Ltd(000686) also pointed out that green power construction enterprises are expected to usher in a new era. For green power construction enterprises, the integrated transformation of green power investment, construction and operation will help them improve their scientific and technological attributes, tap the synergy of the industrial chain, enjoy a high share in the innovative market segments and significantly improve their profitability. From the perspective of orders, green power business has effectively relay housing construction as the main growth momentum. The sector is still at a low valuation, and the holding of green power assets is an effective support for the market value. We recommend paying attention to Power Construction Corporation Of China Ltd(Powerchina Ltd)(601669) , China Energy Engineering Corporation Limited(601868) , Guangdong No.2 Hydropower Engineering Company Ltd(002060) , and believe that it will achieve steady growth in performance under the environment of steady growth in 2022 and the end of three-year action of state-owned enterprise reform. With the gradual confirmation of the growth logic, the valuation is also expected to increase simultaneously.
[Topic 2] coal
Cinda Securities said that at present, it is in the early stage of a new round of upward cycle of coal economy, and the fundamentals, policies and companies resonate. At this stage, the allocation of coal sector is at the right time. According to the cycle characteristics of the coal industry, it has entered the off-season of coal consumption. However, as mentioned in our previous report, China’s power consumption structure has changed, resulting in the continuous rapid growth of power consumption in the whole society and strong demand for power coal; At the supply level, due to the serious shortage of coal mining investment during the 13th Five Year Plan period, the natural depletion and attenuation of superimposed coal resources, the increment of power coal production capacity is difficult to find, and the output of coking coal is seriously insufficient; The “low season” of coal prices still does not meet our expectations, while the “low season” of coal prices in the periphery still does not meet our expectations.
From a macro perspective, in the past five to ten years, the global capital expenditure on coal and oil and gas has been seriously insufficient, and the superimposed currency has continued to be over issued, which has led to this round of energy inflation. At this stage, the industry fundamentals, the underlying logic of the policy and the direct effect are favorable for the repair and improvement of the valuation of the sector. Considering the certainty of the high growth of performance in the first half of this year, it is the best stage for bargain hunting to allocate the coal sector.
The agency further analyzed and continued to look at the coal sector comprehensively, and continued to suggest paying attention to the historic allocation opportunities of coal. It is suggested to pay attention to three main investment lines: first, Yankuang energy, the leader of low value and high dividend power coal, Shaanxi Coal Industry Company Limited(601225) , China Shenhua Energy Company Limited(601088) ; Second, Pingdingshan Tianan Coal Mining Co.Ltd(601666) , Guizhou Panjiang Refined Coal Co.Ltd(600395) , which are both resource scarcity and significant growth; Third, Shanxi Coking Coal Energy Group Co.Ltd(000983) and Jinneng Holding Shanxi Coal Industry Co.Ltd(601001) , which have great potential for extensive expansion brought by the increase of asset securitization rate of state-owned coal group.
In addition, China Galaxy Securities Co.Ltd(601881) securities mentioned that under the background of carbon neutrality, the development of the coal industry lies in the breakthrough of advanced technology and diversified transformation. In the preparation period before the carbon peak, that is, 20212030, the positioning of coal and coal power is still the basic energy, and even before 2050, coal is still an important energy. From 2030 to 2050, new energy and coal are in a competitive and cooperative relationship. Coal cooperates with the development of new energy, and coal power makes way for new energy power generation. Before 2050, there will be 30 years left. The coal industry is likely to make disruptive technological breakthroughs and promote the transformation and development of coal utilization. The development of carbon removal and carbon trading may also win more development space for coal. In the future, the coal industry still has time to promote the development of relevant innovative technologies and the application of carbon sequestration, so as to win more possible transformation opportunities of the coal industry.
[Theme 3] decoration building materials
China Merchants Securities Co.Ltd(600999) said that the Ministry of housing and urban rural development recently issued the “14th five year plan” for building energy conservation and green building development, which proposed to vigorously promote the development of building photovoltaic system and actively develop green buildings such as geothermal, prefabricated and ultra-low energy consumption. Among them, the development of building photovoltaic during the 14th Five Year Plan period may exceed expectations, and the BIPV industrial chain is mainly recommended. BIPV orders may be significantly large in 2022.
Guosheng securities mentioned that green building is an important direction of industrial upgrading and breeds new opportunities for growth and investment. The construction industry is a pillar industry of the national economy. With the continuous improvement of China’s top-level design of green buildings, green buildings that can save resources, protect the environment, reduce pollution and provide people with healthy, applicable and efficient use space have gradually become the main line of the transformation and upgrading of the construction industry, breeding new opportunities for rich growth and investment.
The agency further analyzed that Lvjian trillion market expanded steadily and showed excellent growth in many fields.
We estimate that the scale of green building market is expected to exceed 9 trillion yuan in 2025, with a CAGR of 5%. In terms of key areas: 1) prefabricated buildings and aluminum formwork support are developing rapidly, and the scale is expected to reach 24000 / 57.1 billion yuan and CAGR is 10% / 9% respectively in 2025; 2) The application proportion of green building materials continues to increase, assuming that it will increase to 60% in 2025, corresponding to the market scale of about 1.3 trillion yuan in 2025, CAGR 3%; 3) BIPV / bapv has expanded rapidly with the increase of the installed speed of distributed photovoltaic. It is estimated that the stock transformation exceeds trillion, and the annual increment can exceed 140 billion; 4) The potential market space of electric energy efficiency management can reach 400 billion yuan; 5) The heating energy-saving market shows a rapid growth trend. It is expected to be nearly 30 billion yuan in 2025, with a CAGR of 14%.
[theme 4] agriculture, animal husbandry, feeding and fishery
Guosen Securities Co.Ltd(002736) said he was optimistic about the upward trend of grain price boom in 2022. On the one hand, it is good for the planting and seed sector. On the other hand, the rise of the cost of feed raw materials may accelerate the reversal of the pig price cycle, so it is optimistic about the investment opportunities of the pig sector. Specific targets: 1) planting sector: recommend Jiangsu Provincial Agricultural Reclamation And Development Co.Ltd(601952) , and pay attention to Heilongjiang Agriculture Company Limited(600598) . 2) Relevant Shenzhen Agricultural Products Group Co.Ltd(000061) section: recommend Cofco Sugar Holding Co.Ltd(600737) and pay attention to China Hainan Rubber Industry Group Co.Ltd(601118) . 3) Seed sector: recommended Yuan Longping High-Tech Agriculture Co.Ltd(000998) , Beijing Dabeinong Technology Group Co.Ltd(002385) , Shandong Denghai Seeds Co.Ltd(002041) , etc. 4) Recommendations for pig breeding sector: Zhejiang Huatong Meat Products Co.Ltd(002840) , Fujian Aonong Biological Technology Group Incorporation Limited(603363) , Leshan Giantstar Farming&Husbandry Corporation Limited(603477) , Tecon Biology Co.Ltd(002100) , Dongrui Food Group Co.Ltd(001201) , COFCO Jiakang, Muyuan Foods Co.Ltd(002714) , Wens Foodstuff Group Co.Ltd(300498) , etc.
For the agricultural industry opportunities in 2022, China Galaxy Securities Co.Ltd(601881) Securities pointed out that it firmly recommended the pig cycle. The core view is that in the bottom stage of the pig cycle, the deep loss period is the best time to layout breeding stocks. From the perspective of expectation, there will be no worse expectation. The risk of breeding stocks has been released in large quantities, and the safety margin is very high. With the decline of the number of fertile sows and the decline of pig prices again, the production capacity continues to clear, which is good for the industry to meet the dawn. Based on our judgment of the second bottom of 22q2-3, 22q1 is expected to be the second best time point for the layout of breeding stocks.
