Daily theme strategy discussion, summarize the views of the eight securities companies, reveal the current situation of the industry, observe the market trend, and feel the pulse of A-Shares for you in advance.
Soochow Securities Co.Ltd(601555) : it is suggested to focus on investment opportunities in the construction sector from three directions
We suggest paying attention to the investment opportunities in the construction sector from the following three directions: 1) steady growth continues to increase, and we are optimistic about the valuation repair opportunities under the recovery of the infrastructure chain boom: the financial data in February was significantly lower than expected, mainly due to the weak medium and long-term loans at the residents and enterprises, indicating that the effect of steady growth and wide credit has not been fully demonstrated. Under the annual economic growth target of 5.5%, the policy steady growth is expected to be further strengthened. We believe that the boom recovery of infrastructure investment demand is sustainable. We suggest paying attention to the continuous repair opportunities for the valuation of leading infrastructure enterprises with historically low valuation and stable performance. We suggest paying attention to China Railway Group Limited(601390) , China Railway Construction Corporation Limited(601186) , China Communications Construction Company Limited(601800) , Jsti Group(300284) , etc.
2) there are bright spots in the demand structure and investment opportunities under the incremental development of new businesses: with the promotion of policies such as double carbon strategy and green and energy-saving buildings, the prosperity of fabricated buildings, energy conservation and carbon reduction and infrastructure segments related to new energy is high, and enterprises with relevant transformation layout are expected to benefit. Last week, the 14th five year plan for building energy efficiency and green building development was issued, which proposed to promote building photovoltaic, prefabricated construction and decoration. It is suggested to pay attention to Anhui Honglu Steel Construction(Group) Co.Ltd(002541) , Shenzhen Capol International&Associatesco.Ltd(002949) , Zhejiang Yasha Decoration Co.Ltd(002375) , China Railway Prefabricated Construction Co.Ltd(300374) ; Power Construction Corporation Of China Ltd(Powerchina Ltd)(601669) , China Energy Engineering Corporation Limited(601868) , etc. of new energy business transformation and incremental development; Changjiang & Jinggong Steel Building(Group)Co.Ltd(600496) , Center International Group Co.Ltd(603098) , Zhejiang Southeast Space Frame Co.Ltd(002135) and others benefiting from the large volume of building photovoltaic market, and Jiangxi Geto New Materials Corporation Limited(300986) and other leasing service providers of green building materials (aluminum formwork).
3) reform direction of state-owned enterprises: 2022 is the closing year of the three-year action of state-owned enterprise reform. It is expected that while the reform of state-owned enterprises is advancing steadily, the previous reform dividends in corporate governance structure, strengthening incentives, mixed reform and improving efficiency and stimulating vitality are expected to enter the release period. It is suggested to pay attention to the directions of performance improvement with cost reduction and efficiency increase, new business transformation layout and asset reorganization. It is suggested to pay attention to Sichuan Road & Bridge Co.Ltd(600039) , Power Construction Corporation Of China Ltd(Powerchina Ltd)(601669) Shandong Hi-Speed Road&Bridge Co.Ltd(000498) , Metallurgical Corporation Of China Ltd(601618) etc.
Guosheng Securities: build a green building analysis framework! In 2025, the market scale may exceed 9 trillion yuan and grasp the investment opportunities of the industry wave
Green building is an important direction of industrial upgrading and breeds new opportunities for rich growth and investment. The construction industry is a pillar industry of the national economy. With the continuous improvement of China’s top-level design of green buildings, green buildings that can save resources, protect the environment, reduce pollution and provide people with healthy, applicable and efficient use space have gradually become the main line of the transformation and upgrading of the construction industry, breeding new opportunities for rich growth and investment.
Lvjian trillion market has expanded steadily, showing excellent growth in many fields. We estimate that the scale of green building market is expected to exceed 9 trillion yuan in 2025, with a CAGR of 5%. In terms of key areas: 1) prefabricated buildings and aluminum formwork support are developing rapidly, and the scale is expected to reach 24000 / 57.1 billion yuan and CAGR is 10% / 9% respectively in 2025; 2) The application proportion of green building materials continues to increase, assuming that it will increase to 60% in 2025, corresponding to the market scale of about 1.3 trillion yuan in 2025, CAGR 3%; 3) BIPV / bapv has expanded rapidly with the increase of the installed speed of distributed photovoltaic. It is estimated that the stock transformation exceeds trillion, and the annual increment can exceed 140 billion; 4) The potential market space of electric energy efficiency management can reach 400 billion yuan; 5) The heating energy-saving market shows a rapid growth trend. It is expected to be nearly 30 billion yuan in 2025, with a CAGR of 14%.
In terms of investment suggestions, 1) Anhui Honglu Steel Construction(Group) Co.Ltd(002541) , Shenzhen Capol International&Associatesco.Ltd(002949) etc. are recommended for prefabricated buildings; Aluminum formwork focuses on Jiangxi Geto New Materials Corporation Limited(300986) , Zhejiang Huatie Emergency Equipment Science & Technology Co.Ltd(603300) . 2) It is suggested to pay attention to the green building materials testing leader China Building Material Test & Certification Group Co.Ltd(603060) ; Ceramic fiber, refractory and thermal insulation material faucet Luyang Energy-Saving Materials Co.Ltd(002088) , as well as calcium silicate board, gypsum board, special glass, waterproof material and other subdivision faucets. 3) BIPV / bapv mainly recommends Changjiang & Jinggong Steel Building(Group)Co.Ltd(600496) , Zhejiang Southeast Space Frame Co.Ltd(002135) , steel structure leaders actively promoting EPC + BIPV business, pays attention to the leading metal enclosure enterprise Center International Group Co.Ltd(603098) , cooperates with existing government and enterprise resources, and actively explores Long Yuan Construction Group Co.Ltd(600491) , as well as Jangho Group Co.Ltd(601886) , which has a large technical reserve of photovoltaic curtain wall. 4) Building operation and maintenance energy conservation focuses on Suwen Electric Energy Technology Co.Ltd(300982) , Acrel Co.Ltd(300286) , and Runa Smart Equipment Co.Ltd(301129) , an expert in heating energy conservation.
China Merchants Securities Co.Ltd(600999) : the development of building photovoltaic during the 14th Five Year Plan period may exceed expectations, and the BIPV industrial chain is recommended
Recently, the Ministry of housing and urban rural development issued the 14th five year plan for building energy conservation and green building development, which proposed to vigorously promote the development of building photovoltaic system and actively develop geothermal, prefabricated, ultra-low energy consumption and other green buildings. Among them, the development of building photovoltaic during the 14th Five Year Plan period may exceed expectations, and the BIPV industrial chain is mainly recommended. BIPV orders may be significantly large in 2022.
The future of construction and steel industry is still worth looking forward to, and there is a possibility of exceeding expectations, especially in BIPV industry. It is expected that relevant construction enterprises will usher in rapid development, and there is great room for improvement in performance and profitability. Specifically, BIPV roof faucet Center International Group Co.Ltd(603098) , steel structure engineering faucet Changjiang & Jinggong Steel Building(Group)Co.Ltd(600496) , and Zhejiang Southeast Space Frame Co.Ltd(002135) , are recommended; The curtain wall faucet Jangho Group Co.Ltd(601886) (its photovoltaic roof is also actively arranged) is recommended for the facade. It is recommended to pay attention to China State Construction Engineering Corporation Limited(601668) Xingye. In addition, the sub industries related to real estate, whose valuations fell sharply before, are expected to usher in more than expected valuation repair with moderate easing, such as Suzhou Gold Mantis Construction Decoration Co.Ltd(002081) , Zhejiang Yasha Decoration Co.Ltd(002375) , etc. In terms of iron and steel, there is good price elasticity. It is recommended that Nanjing Iron & Steel Co.Ltd(600282) , Baoshan Iron & Steel Co.Ltd(600019) , Beijing Shougang Co.Ltd(000959) , etc. be paid attention to.
Tianfeng Securities Co.Ltd(601162) : “construction +” enterprises that layout “new energy” and “chemical” industries under the medium and long-term growth dimension of the leader
The overall financial data in February was less than expected. Taking into account the repeated epidemic situation, international turmoil and other factors, the downward pressure on the economy has increased, and steady growth is expected to become the main economic line throughout the year.
Under the medium and long-term growth dimension of “construction +” leader, enterprises with “new energy” and “chemical” industries have gradually entered the performance cashing period, and their performance is expected to grow high. Under the dimension of valuation restoration of value varieties, the leaders of local state-owned enterprises are expected to enjoy the high boom of regional infrastructure, and the profit elasticity brought by the improvement of operating efficiency has initially appeared. In the medium and long term, there are both opportunities for steady growth and report quality improvement. The increase of market share of central enterprises supports the continuous growth of revenue. After the completion of leverage reduction, roe still has obvious upward elasticity. With the continuous strengthening of the profit release ability and willingness of central enterprises, It also has strong elasticity of valuation and repair.
Huaan Securities Co.Ltd(600909) : waterproof is a high-quality track in consumer building materials, with a market scale of more than 100 billion
Waterproof is a high-quality track in consumer building materials, with a market scale of more than 100 billion. In the short term, the growth of infrastructure demand brought by the strengthening of “steady growth” and the waterproof demand brought by the transformation of old residential areas and urban renewal will support the steady development of the industry; The price of raw materials rose, the withdrawal of small and medium-sized enterprises accelerated, and the process of improving industry concentration accelerated. In the medium and long term, the improvement of building warranty period, BIPV photovoltaic roof and other new application scenarios will promote the upgrading of product quality and the proportion of high-end products in the industry. The resulting market space expansion bonus is more occupied by the head enterprises.
At present, the valuation level of major listed companies in the waterproof industry has been in a low position after the early in-depth correction. It is suggested to pay attention to the leader of high-quality growth in the waterproof industry. Key recommendation Beijing Oriental Yuhong Waterproof Technology Co.Ltd(002271) , the company is the first A-share listed company in the waterproof industry. Compared with the main catchers, it has significant advantages in scale and is the absolute leader in the waterproof industry. We believe that the highlights of the company are mainly reflected in: 1) during the tightening period of credit environment, the company used the power of capital market to refinance, seized the opportunity of industry reform, and occupied a favorable position in the market environment of b-end major customers and increasingly important national layout; 2) Since 2020, the company has strengthened the assessment of cash collection and gradually optimized the debt structure; Under the adversity of real estate risk exposure in 2021, the company has shown a significantly better anti risk ability than its peers; 3) The new business has huge growth space, and the waterproof repair market will reach 100 billion every year. Several types of key new products cultivated by the company, architectural coatings, thermal insulation materials and mortar, each have a large market of 10 billion or even 100 billion. The courage and pattern shown in the development process of the company have great enterprise potential, and the growth space is far from the top.
Huachuang Securities: the 14th five year plan for green building development is released! Focus on the two high growth tracks of assembly and BIPV
The 14th five year plan for green building development is released, and the prefabricated and BIPV are recommended On March 11, the Ministry of housing and urban rural development issued the 14th five year plan for building energy conservation and green building development, which puts forward the following important development goals: ① complete the energy-saving transformation of existing buildings by 2025, covering an area of more than 350 million square meters (164 million less than the scale during the 13th Five Year Plan period); ② Building buildings with ultra-low energy consumption and near zero energy consumption of more than 50 million square meters (an increase of 40 million square meters compared with the scale during the 13th Five Year Plan period); ③ Prefabricated buildings accounted for 30% of new urban buildings in that year (nearly 10 PCT higher than that in 2020); ④ The installed capacity of Cecep Solar Energy Co.Ltd(000591) photovoltaic in new buildings nationwide is more than 50 million KW; ⑤ The building area of geothermal energy is more than 100 million square meters.
We suggest to focus on the two high growth tracks of prefabricated and BIPV: 1) prefabricated: the penetration target of 30% is basically consistent with the development target of “striving to make the proportion of prefabricated buildings in new buildings reach more than 30% in about 10 years” put forward in 2016. However, referring to the development of the 13th five year plan, the penetration rate of prefabricated buildings in 2020 has exceeded the previous target by 5pct. We believe that the development plan of 30% is only the minimum target, The prefabricated industry will continue to maintain excellent growth, especially under the background of the high growth of affordable housing in the first and second tier cities, the prefabricated related industries are expected to benefit. It is recommended to focus on Zhejiang Yasha Decoration Co.Ltd(002375) , Anhui Honglu Steel Construction(Group) Co.Ltd(002541) , and Shenzhen Capol International&Associatesco.Ltd(002949) , Changjiang & Jinggong Steel Building(Group)Co.Ltd(600496) , Anhui Fuhuang Steel Structure Co.Ltd(002743) ;
2) BIPV: the plan proposes to add 50gw of construction Cecep Solar Energy Co.Ltd(000591) photovoltaic installed capacity during the 14th Five Year Plan period. According to the calculation of 4 yuan / W, the market scale will reach 200 billion, and the average annual incremental market will be about 50 billion. With regard to application fields and business models, the document points out that it is necessary to “actively promote the distributed and integrated application of Cecep Solar Energy Co.Ltd(000591) photovoltaic in urban and rural buildings and municipal utilities; encourage photovoltaic manufacturing enterprises, investment and operation enterprises, power generation enterprises and building property owners to strengthen cooperation and explore photovoltaic application business models such as roof leasing and market-oriented transaction of distributed power generation”, with emphasis on Zhejiang Southeast Space Frame Co.Ltd(002135) , Suwen Electric Energy Technology Co.Ltd(300982) .
The Pacific Securities Co.Ltd(601099) Securities: the overall valuation of the upstream and downstream of the infrastructure industry chain is low, with strong risk resistance
In the context of the uncertain global situation, the overall valuation of the upstream and downstream of the infrastructure industry chain is low, with abundant orders, high relative security and strong risk resistance. Therefore, it is recommended to continue to pay attention. Investment opportunities for earthquake mitigation and isolation under high-quality development: long-term efforts have been made in disaster prevention and mitigation, legislation has been passed, and 20-30 times of space can be expected. Relevant targets such as Quakesafe Technologies Co.Ltd(300767) , Zhejiang Tiantie Industry Co.Ltd(300587) “transportation power” and rail transit sector have long-term benefits: there is a broad demand for the construction of “Urban Agglomeration” on the track, and relevant targets such as Zhejiang Tiantie Industry Co.Ltd(300587) , China Railway Group Limited(601390) , China Railway Construction Corporation Limited(601186) ; Under the expectation of the improvement of China’s infrastructure investment margin in the second half of the year, it is suggested to pay attention to the opportunities related to the industrial chain: pay attention to the undervalued targets China State Construction Engineering Corporation Limited(601668) , China Railway Construction Corporation Limited(601186) , China Railway Group Limited(601390) ; Leading infrastructure enterprises with steady main business and mineral resources: Metallurgical Corporation Of China Ltd(601618) , China Railway Group Limited(601390) ; Under the background of dual control of energy consumption, high-quality targets in green power, BIPV and other related fields: Sinosteel Engineering & Technology Co.Ltd(000928) , Power Construction Corporation Of China Ltd(Powerchina Ltd)(601669) , Sinoma International Engineering Co.Ltd(600970) .
Citic Securities Company Limited(600030) : growth space for building energy conservation and BIPV from a policy perspective
National standards in the field of building energy conservation and the 14th five year plan have been issued one after another, and building energy conservation and BIPV meet the demand for long-term expansion and development opportunities. On March 11, the Ministry of housing and urban rural development issued the 14th five year plan for building energy conservation and green building development; In October 2021, the Ministry of housing and urban rural development issued the full text mandatory national standard general code for building energy efficiency and renewable energy utilization, which will be implemented from April 1, 2022. Two programmatic documents in the field of building energy conservation have been issued one after another. The “14th five year plan” guides the direction of policy development. National standards will ensure that key tasks can be implemented to the implementation level. The top-level design of building energy conservation policy has become more and more perfect. With the gradual implementation of top-level design at the local level, the demand of building energy conservation and building photovoltaic industry is expected to increase in the long term.
The two documents will guide the improvement of the quality and demand of building thermal insulation, building shading and building photovoltaic. (1) Building thermal insulation: the two documents put forward specific requirements for the overall task of improving the energy-saving level of new buildings and existing buildings. Thermal insulation materials directly affect the thermal performance of the building’s outer envelope. The energy-saving standard requires that the thermal insulation layer be thickened accordingly. For example, the energy-saving rate is increased from 65% to 75%, and the thermal insulation thickness of the outer wall is required to be increased from 60mm to 100mm, which is expected to drive the increase in the demand for thermal insulation materials.
In addition, it is beneficial to make systematic requirements for the planning and supply of thermal insulation projects and improve the quality of thermal insulation projects.
(2) building sunshade: the “planning” refers to “adding sunshade facilities according to local conditions to improve the safety, applicability and durability of sunshade facilities”. The “specification” requires that sunshade measures should be taken for the south, East and West outward windows and transparent curtain walls of class a public buildings in areas with hot summer and warm winter and cold summer and winter, indicating the necessity of installing building sunshade in warm climate areas. Building sunshade will be one of the energy-saving measures encouraged by the policy for a long time.
(3) building photovoltaic: both documents put forward the tasks or requirements of promoting building photovoltaic, and the “plan” also mentioned the goal of accumulating new building Cecep Solar Energy Co.Ltd(000591) photovoltaic installed capacity of 50gw during the 14th Five Year Plan period. However, considering that the installed capacity of distributed photovoltaic will reach 72gw during the 13th Five Year Plan period and 29.28gw in 2021, the formulation of this goal is actually conservative. Driven by the accelerated demand of industrial and commercial enterprises for building photovoltaic, the development of distributed photovoltaic is expected to exceed the target expectation, and the penetration rate of BIPV is expected to accelerate. The two documents also make requirements for the rationality and safety of installing building photovoltaic, and the improvement of quality requirements is conducive to the concentration of building photovoltaic EPC orders to head construction enterprises.
