Today (March 18), Shanghai and Shenzhen stock markets showed a shock rebound pattern. The three major A-share indexes opened low in the morning, and then the differentiation pattern of Shanghai strong and deep weak was more obvious; In the afternoon, there was a wave of counterattack in the index. The Shanghai index took the lead in turning red and shaking upward, while the resilience of the gem index and Shenzhen composite index was relatively weak and reluctantly turned red. Finally, the three major stock indexes closed in the red market.
In this regard, China Industrial Securities Co.Ltd(601377) pointed out that at present, as the end of China's policy has been clear, the early easing measures have gradually taken effect, driving the economic data in February better than expected. Recently, the decision-making level has still called for the "steady growth" policy on many important occasions, and the "wide currency" and "wide credit" have been increasing. At the same time, the external environment is also gradually improving. Therefore, we believe that the most panic time is in the past, and the market is expected to usher in a phased repair window in the next month.
At the same time, Shanxi Securities Co.Ltd(002500) said that the bottom of the market is gradually emerging. It is suggested to pay attention to the allocation opportunities formed after the oversold in a relatively cautious manner, focus on the market value and growth style of the market, and continue to pay attention to the real estate, building materials and other sectors that are expected to benefit from the continuous overweight of "steady growth", as well as high boom track stocks such as new energy and medicine.
sector:
I. insurance
Zheshang Securities Co.Ltd(601878) mentioned that on March 16, the financial development and stability Commission of the State Council held a special meeting to release the positive signal of stabilizing growth and market, emphasizing that relevant departments should earnestly assume their responsibilities and coordinate with the financial management department in advance for major policies affecting the market to maintain the stability and consistency of policy expectations. We believe that although the liability side of insurance companies is still under pressure, the expectation of the investment side will be improved, the risk uncertainty will be reduced, and the valuation will be repaired in stages. The current valuation of the insurance sector is low and the safety margin is high, maintaining the "optimistic" rating of the industry.
Gf Securities Co.Ltd(000776) pointed out that the property insurance industry has ushered in an operating inflection point, and the significant improvement of the beneficial asset side of life insurance has maintained the "buy" rating of the industry. The year-on-year growth rate of premium in the property insurance industry continues to improve, and it is expected that the leading insurance companies will benefit from the strengthening of competitive advantage and the improvement of competition pattern. The current valuation is at a relatively low level. We think there is more room for repair, while the valuation of life insurance and the positions of public funds are at the historical freezing point level, showing an improvement attitude on the liability side, and the asset side is obviously changing in a positive direction. We suggest to continue to pay attention to insurance stocks, It is suggested to pay attention to individual stocks: China Property Insurance (H), China Life Insurance Company Limited(601628) (A / h), Ping An Insurance (Group) Company Of China Ltd(601318) (A / h), AIA (H), China Pacific Insurance (Group) Co.Ltd(601601) (A / h), New China Life Insurance Company Ltd(601336) (A / h).
II real estate development
Wanlian securities mentioned that the fundamentals of the real estate industry are still at the bottom, and there is still no significant improvement at the sales end. Under the macro background of "stable growth", the policy environment of the real estate industry is not expected to be worse, and the industry fundamentals are gradually bottoming out. Due to the implementation of urban policies, the improvement policies can still be expected. It is suggested to pay attention to (1) property management companies with good fundamental performance; (2) High quality real estate enterprises with financial stability and background of central enterprises / state-owned enterprises; (3) Real estate enterprises with high-quality holding properties or transformation enterprises, or effectively form a virtuous capital cycle of "development +".
Dongxing Securities Corporation Limited(601198) said that according to the data of the Bureau of statistics, although the investment increased from January to February, the decline in sales was better than the market expectation. However, sales are still weak and residents' willingness to buy houses is low. The capital of the industry is still very tight, the investment willingness and ability of real estate enterprises have declined sharply, and the land market is deserted. Under the impact of shrinking demand and weakening expectation, both sides of supply and demand are facing great impact. The policy objective of "stabilizing land prices, house prices and expectations" will face great challenges. It is still a top priority to further strengthen market stability. If the land market does not warm up and the market expectation does not stabilize, the probability of stability maintenance policies will be introduced one after another.
China Industrial Securities Co.Ltd(601377) mentioned that the voice of multiple departments is heard together, and the change of real estate policy is expected to be further strengthened. On March 16, vice premier Liu he presided over the meeting of the Finance Committee of the State Council and mentioned that new loans should maintain a moderate growth; With regard to real estate enterprises, we should timely study and put forward effective solutions to prevent and resolve risks. Five departments including the Ministry of finance, the China Banking and Insurance Regulatory Commission, the central bank, the China Securities Regulatory Commission and the State Administration of foreign exchange have all made positive statements to maintain stability. For example, the Ministry of Finance said that it does not have the conditions to expand the pilot cities of real estate tax this year; The cbcirc encourages the steady and orderly development of M & A loans and supports high-quality enterprises to receive M & A; The central bank has made it clear that it will maintain a moderate increase in new loans; The CSRC and the safe said that they would cooperate with relevant departments to resolve the risks of real estate enterprises and promote the steady and healthy development of the real estate market. Under the maintenance of stability, the change of real estate policy will be more active and pay attention to the investment opportunities of real estate stocks.
At present, the financing advantages of high-quality real estate enterprises are obvious, and the share of land acquisition has increased. The third batch of centralized land supply last year accounted for about 70% of the land acquisition by state-owned and central enterprises, and about 45% of the first batch. The profit margin of the land market improved due to the reduction of competition heat, the decline of premium rate and the adjustment of land transfer rules. High quality real estate enterprises will benefit relatively and usher in greater development opportunities. In terms of investment suggestions, we continue to recommend Poly Developments And Holdings Group Co.Ltd(600048) , China Vanke Co.Ltd(000002) , Gemdale Corporation(600383) , China Merchants Shekou Industrial Zone Holdings Co.Ltd(001979) , Jinke Property Group Co.Ltd(000656) , Seazen Holdings Co.Ltd(601155) , Shenzhen New Nanshan Holding (Group) Co.Ltd(002314) , China Merchants Property Operation & Service Co.Ltd(001914) , etc.
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