□ our reporter Meng Ni
On January 4, Shanghai International Shipping Research Center released China's shipping boom report for the fourth quarter of 2021. The report shows that in the fourth quarter of 2021, China's shipping prosperity index reached 119.43 points, falling into the relative prosperity range; China's shipping confidence index was 159.16 points, maintained in a strong boom range, all above the boom dividing line.
The report predicts that China's shipping industry will still improve in the first quarter of 2022, but the market may be divided. Looking forward to the whole year of 2022, the global shipping market should be in a peak callback cycle.
According to the report, China's shipping prosperity index is expected to be 113.41 points in the first quarter of 2022, down 6.02 points from the fourth quarter of 2021 and maintained in the relative prosperity range; China's shipping confidence index is expected to be 150.63 points, down 8.53 points from the fourth quarter of 2021, but still maintained in a strong boom range. The prosperity index and confidence index of all enterprises will remain above the prosperity line, and the overall market situation is expected to continue to improve.
Among them, the prosperity index of dry bulk cargo transportation enterprises will fall to the relative prosperity range, freight income, operating cost and profitability are below the prosperity line, and the operation situation will be under pressure in the next quarter; However, the confidence index of container transportation enterprises is expected to be 187 points, the highest level in history and maintained in a very prosperous range, indicating that entrepreneurs continue to be optimistic about container transportation enterprises; The prosperity index of small port enterprises fell below the prosperity line and entered a relatively depressed range; Shipping service enterprises remain in the micro boom range, their business conditions remain stable, and entrepreneurs still have sufficient confidence in future business.
In the third quarter China Shipping prosperity report released in early October 2021, Zhou Dequan, director of China Shipping prosperity index preparation office, proposed that "this round of prosperity peaked and potential risks appeared". Since then, although the international container liner market remains high, there has been a sharp correction in the international dry bulk shipping market. Accordingly, Zhou Dequan believes that looking forward to 2022, the global shipping market should be in a peak callback cycle.
In terms of freight rates, among the container transportation enterprises, dry bulk cargo transportation enterprises, port enterprises and shipping service enterprises surveyed, most of them believe that the freight rates in 2022 will be basically flat or higher than those in 2021. For example, 30% of container transportation enterprises believe that the freight rate will rise compared with 2021; 45.45% of port enterprises believe that the freight rate will show an upward trend; 15.38% of dry bulk cargo transportation enterprises believe that the freight rate will rise slightly; 36.84% of shipping service enterprises believe that the freight rate will rise.
In 2022, the global port congestion will continue, which will affect the fleet turnover efficiency of 79.17% of ship transportation enterprises. Among ship transportation enterprises, 7.29% of the fleet turnover efficiency decreased by 50% or more. Among the container transportation enterprises, more than 50% of the container transportation enterprises said that the fleet turnover efficiency decreased by about 30%, and another 10% said that the fleet turnover efficiency decreased by more than 50%. Among the dry bulk cargo transportation enterprises, more than 70% said that the fleet turnover rate decreased by more than 20% or even more than 50% due to port congestion.
In addition, according to statistics, as of November 2021, the global orders for new container and dry bulk ships have reached 4.12 million TEU and 34.65 million dwt respectively, and a large number of ships will be delivered centrally in the next two years. In this regard, except that 14.58% of enterprises believe that the transportation capacity will be relatively balanced, 85.42% of ship transportation enterprises believe that the transportation capacity will show a surplus trend of different levels in the next two years. Among them, more than 90% of the dry bulk cargo transportation enterprises believe that the transportation capacity will be surplus to varying degrees, and 70% of the container transportation enterprises believe that the transportation capacity will be surplus to varying degrees.
However, in June 2021, the International Maritime Organization (IMO) released the ship energy efficiency design index (eexi), which means that the main task facing the shipping industry in the next few years is to find a way to decarbonize. Zhou Dequan believes that this will mean that a large number of ships will withdraw, thus making the market capacity relatively balanced.
The survey also shows that in order to meet this challenge, 41.67% of ship transportation enterprises prefer to install fuel-saving propeller accessories to meet the eexi regulations that will come into force soon. Among them, 12.50% of ship transportation enterprises prefer to install shipborne DC power supply system, 6.25% of ship transportation enterprises prefer to install air lubrication drag reduction system, and only 3.12% and 2.08% of enterprises prefer to install Cecep Solar Energy Co.Ltd(000591) equipment and sail equipment.
(International Business Daily)
